ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Here is the new one:

000
URNT12 KNHC 220731
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/07:05:20Z
B. 23 deg 14 min N
093 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 38 kt
E. 139 deg 48 nm
F. 214 deg 045 kt
G. 138 deg 046 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 15 C/ 1528 m
J. 19 C/ 1522 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 1304A DOLLY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 05:12:50 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 0720 Z

[americanrebel]

Here is the stall I was expecting. Now lets see what she does, if she decides to build those clouds up and the High to the north goes away, will she move through the weakness or not.

[Aric Dunn]

we maybe having another center relocation..
i need more frames to make sure
.. stand by lol

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

and here is the old one:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 06:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2008
Storm Name: Dolly (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 5:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°10'N 93°15'W (23.17N 93.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 328 miles (527 km) to the SE (126°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,419m (4,656ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 54kts (From the SE at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.03 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:12:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 5:42Z

[HarlequinBoy]

we maybe having another center relocation..
i need more frames to make sure
.. stand by lol

Ugh, I hope not.

[americanrebel]

pressure is down even more, even though the wind is down a little, the storm has moved hardly any at all.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it looks like its coming to a slow crawl now .. but we need to wait and see over the next hour to see if that is the case

[Meso]

The winds will follow the pressure drop,it takes a little while.Though it's not a big pressure drop, not yet anyway.I'm guessing it will continue consolidating at an average rate over the next few hours and then intensification will pick up a bit quicker.Should be slowing down soon too which will help. (appears that is already has)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The 2 center fixes:

[Aric Dunn]

nice graph of a near by buoy

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon headed home next air force flight isn't until 1515Z. Next flight is a NOAA flight that should be leaving at 8Z

[Cat5x]

Dolly has slowed WAY down! In about the last 2 hours Dolly has moved about 14 miles so thats about 7mph for the past 2 hours

I was just coming to post the same thing, appears to be slowing down big time as we speak... not good for texas, this will intensify it and probably make it go further north over the long term.

btw, did you get my instant message from earlier today ?

[Cat5x]

that is one whicked looking long tail.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html all the way from texas / MX boarder through SELA, right off of tampa to key west through cuba and into the carribean. One continous long cloud band.

[Aric Dunn]

she is only couple hours away from being a hurricane
she is started to build that inner core quite well now and is beginnig to develop a small cdo
.. noaa plane should find a pretty good drop in pressure .. and winds should be up .

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I will post the data if you guys want as well as the maps from google earth

Flight must be late because it should have left at 4 but theres been no obs or anything yet

[americanrebel]

If you don't mind Hurricane, I still haven't figured out all that stuff yet. It really looks like she has stalled out and with the center getting more high top clouds, looks like she is starting her intensification. Will be interesting to see her pressure and wind speeds.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah .. she is developing a well established core and is much less ragged.. with very intense convection wraping completly around the center .. she is on the verdge of some intense strengthening

[Aric Dunn]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 72208.fcst

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I normally would agree, but the LLC is displaced to the south of the MLC(CDO), that is clearly seen on a satellite loop. But I see it becoming more stacked, so I would watch for some slow strengthing up to hurricane today.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

yeah .. she is developing a well established core and is much less ragged.. with very intense convection wraping completly around the center .. she is on the verdge of some intense strengthening

I have to agree with you and yet she may not be as organized as she looks. That "CDO" is developing away from the center location.