ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

stevetampa33614, I don't think thats any issue for a system of this strength given its stil lmoving, the only way it would be an issue if it slowed to about 3-4mph and was a good deal stronger. Still we will see.

[stevetampa33614]

man i need to get out there and find a new job but dolly is keeping me at home

Guess it will be another online application day.

Im pretty sure they are gonna find Cat: 1 . Arent those bands something? Going all the way back to colombia and into florida. If Dolly had a week she become huge.

[Thunder44]

This image is just a few hours old. It looks like it the rainbands were getting better organzied around the center :

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where Dolly is total water depth is pretty high, but depth of 26º water isn't. A slow moving Cat 5 like Mitch iin the Caribbean would have strangled itself by upwelling cool water moving that slow in the Gulf.





That shows the difference between the Caribbean and the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

111900 2417N 09343W 6959 03115 9966 +115 +080 118055 056 051 000 00
111930 2415N 09344W 6958 03111 9959 +116 +083 119055 056 051 001 00

51 knots / 995.9 mb. Not in the center yet.

[WmE]

Wow, that's an impressive drop.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan the pressure is decent and the winds are certainly getting higher aren't they!

Thunder44, yep the banding features are getting relaly impressive now can see the whole thing wrapping around, won't be long before aproper eyewall forms in that system looking at that and its current deepening rate.

Ed, yep though for a lower end hurricane thats plenty enough for strengthening even if it is moving fairly slowly.

[stevetampa33614]

Where Dolly is total water depth is pretty high, but depth of 26º water isn't. A slow moving Cat 5 like Mitch iin the Caribbean would have strangled itself by upwelling cool water moving that slow in the Gulf.





That shows the difference between the Caribbean and the Gulf.

thanks ed! Great post as always.

And my my. This is definately a Category 1. They arent even at the CoC yet.

[hurrican19]

Dolly's winds are expected to Decrease from 60-80MPH to 65-85MPH on Wednesday, according to WFO BRO -- I thought 65-85MPH was an increasing wind? lol

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure down 7mb

113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000 03

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 221139
NOAA2 1504A DOLLY HDOB 17 20080722
113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000


The center obs were not released. This one says 990.4 mb.

[stevetampa33614]

URNT15 KWBC 221139
NOAA2 1504A DOLLY HDOB 17 20080722
113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000


The center obs were not released. This one says 990.4 mb.

They're not there yet correct?

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 221139
NOAA2 1504A DOLLY HDOB 17 20080722
113000 2337N 09406W 6958 03067 9904 +120 +094 351004 005 024 000


The center obs were not released. This one says 990.4 mb.

They're not there yet correct?

[WmE]

So the pressure was likely a little lower. Looks like it's strengthening pretty fast now.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yes based on the 5kt wind with the 990mb pressure I would say that was the center. It was the "eye wall" that we did not get the obs for so we don't know how strong the strongest winds are.

[Smurfwicked]

The federal government was to begin this week constructing the first part of the new border fence in Hidalgo County. While project supervisors met with emergency officials about the storm, large cranes unloaded steel beams and other supplies at a staging area near the levee Monday. Concrete walls will be incorporated into the river side of the levees to keep floodwaters, illegal immigrants and smugglers out.

Source: http://www.kfdm.com/news/storm_27040___ ... pical.html

I didn't think about how a hurricane making landfall in the Tex-Mex border area could effect border patrol from keeping drug smugglers and illegal immigrants out!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me if they found some winds that could be near 55-60 knots. We will see, I expect hurricane today.

[canetracker]

Using the tropical forecast points, Dolly looks like she has slowed to a crawl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Pressures are sure impressive this morning.

[Vortex]

It appears dolly is in the process of setting herself up to under go rapid intensification beginning in the next 3-5 hours. There will be a period of at least 24 hours of moderate to rapid intensification. I think it's now reasonable to expect and prepare for a major hurricane early wednesday afternoon along the extreme SE Texas coast. I NOW expect Dolly to become a major hurricane at landfall as this system crosses the coast.

[stevetampa33614]

While, I share your thoughts.

Im sticking with a moderate Cat. 2 Hurricane at most. just dont think she is gonna get her act together THAT fast. God help Texas if she does

My prayers go out to those in the path. For God sakes listen to the local authorites. If they say leave, LEAVE. Take it from a floridian Hurricanes are not FUN when winds are above Tropical Storm force. Everything becomes a projectile and walking around just isnt possible.