ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 221315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080722 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 0000 080723 1200 080724 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 20.2W 17.2N 23.8W 17.5N 27.9W 17.5N 32.2W
BAMD 16.4N 20.2W 17.6N 23.5W 18.4N 27.0W 19.4N 30.5W
BAMM 16.4N 20.2W 17.3N 23.6W 17.9N 27.5W 18.4N 31.4W
LBAR 16.4N 20.2W 17.1N 23.0W 17.9N 26.1W 18.8N 29.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080724 1200 080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 36.6W 16.5N 43.4W 17.6N 47.0W 20.9N 50.5W
BAMD 20.6N 33.5W 24.2N 37.0W 27.3N 35.9W 27.7N 32.6W
BAMM 18.7N 35.2W 19.9N 41.3W 22.2N 45.5W 25.5N 48.9W
LBAR 19.5N 32.9W 21.7N 38.5W 25.5N 41.3W 28.9N 39.3W
SHIP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 20.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 17.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080722 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 0000 080723 1200 080724 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 20.2W 17.2N 23.8W 17.5N 27.9W 17.5N 32.2W
BAMD 16.4N 20.2W 17.6N 23.5W 18.4N 27.0W 19.4N 30.5W
BAMM 16.4N 20.2W 17.3N 23.6W 17.9N 27.5W 18.4N 31.4W
LBAR 16.4N 20.2W 17.1N 23.0W 17.9N 26.1W 18.8N 29.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080724 1200 080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 36.6W 16.5N 43.4W 17.6N 47.0W 20.9N 50.5W
BAMD 20.6N 33.5W 24.2N 37.0W 27.3N 35.9W 27.7N 32.6W
BAMM 18.7N 35.2W 19.9N 41.3W 22.2N 45.5W 25.5N 48.9W
LBAR 19.5N 32.9W 21.7N 38.5W 25.5N 41.3W 28.9N 39.3W
SHIP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 20.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 17.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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Seems to suggest recurve is very likely indeed, not al lthat surprising given how far north its come off Africa. Still should get far enough west to get into similar type of waters that Bertha had when it got upto a major so who knows, worth watching even though I agree with SHIPS should only slowly get stronger thanks to the cool waters.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The 18:00 Guidance for 97L still makes it a weak storm.
357
WHXX01 KWBC 221853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080722 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080722 1800 080723 0600 080723 1800 080724 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 21.4W 17.7N 24.8W 18.3N 29.2W 18.6N 33.8W
BAMD 16.7N 21.4W 17.9N 24.5W 18.9N 27.8W 20.2N 31.0W
BAMM 16.7N 21.4W 17.7N 24.8W 18.6N 28.7W 19.4N 32.8W
LBAR 16.7N 21.4W 17.2N 24.1W 18.2N 27.3W 18.9N 30.6W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080724 1800 080725 1800 080726 1800 080727 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 38.4W 18.7N 45.1W 19.9N 48.9W 23.6N 51.9W
BAMD 21.9N 33.6W 25.8N 35.4W 27.9N 32.5W 28.8N 28.9W
BAMM 20.3N 36.6W 22.7N 42.1W 25.6N 45.8W 28.8N 48.1W
LBAR 19.7N 33.9W 22.4N 39.1W 26.7N 40.6W 31.9N 37.4W
SHIP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 21.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 18.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 15.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
357
WHXX01 KWBC 221853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080722 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080722 1800 080723 0600 080723 1800 080724 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 21.4W 17.7N 24.8W 18.3N 29.2W 18.6N 33.8W
BAMD 16.7N 21.4W 17.9N 24.5W 18.9N 27.8W 20.2N 31.0W
BAMM 16.7N 21.4W 17.7N 24.8W 18.6N 28.7W 19.4N 32.8W
LBAR 16.7N 21.4W 17.2N 24.1W 18.2N 27.3W 18.9N 30.6W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080724 1800 080725 1800 080726 1800 080727 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 38.4W 18.7N 45.1W 19.9N 48.9W 23.6N 51.9W
BAMD 21.9N 33.6W 25.8N 35.4W 27.9N 32.5W 28.8N 28.9W
BAMM 20.3N 36.6W 22.7N 42.1W 25.6N 45.8W 28.8N 48.1W
LBAR 19.7N 33.9W 22.4N 39.1W 26.7N 40.6W 31.9N 37.4W
SHIP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 21.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 18.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 15.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Extremeweatherguy
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https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_97.gif - BAM models move the system west and then turn it NW.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation - CMC takes it just north of the leeward islands in 6 days.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation - GFS moves the system out to sea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation - GFDL moves the system generally W or WNW.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation - HWRF also moves the system out to sea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation - NOGAPS moves the system toward the windward islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation - UKMET moves the system toward the leeward islands.
For the most part, all of the models keep the system fairly week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation - CMC takes it just north of the leeward islands in 6 days.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation - GFS moves the system out to sea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation - GFDL moves the system generally W or WNW.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation - HWRF also moves the system out to sea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation - NOGAPS moves the system toward the windward islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation - UKMET moves the system toward the leeward islands.
For the most part, all of the models keep the system fairly week.
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Which one of those is the EURO because thats the most reliable model?
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-
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
None are the EURO...Here is the link:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/hurricane.html
Under model data, chose ECMWF 00Z e-wall (at about 2am) then ECMWF 12Z e-wall (at 2pm).
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/hurricane.html
Under model data, chose ECMWF 00Z e-wall (at about 2am) then ECMWF 12Z e-wall (at 2pm).
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The 18:00 UTC run of the BAM models:
519
WHXX01 KWBC 231809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080723 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 1800 080724 0600 080724 1800 080725 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 30.2W 15.8N 33.2W 16.3N 36.6W 17.0N 39.9W
BAMD 15.4N 30.2W 16.2N 32.9W 17.3N 35.6W 18.7N 38.0W
BAMM 15.4N 30.2W 15.9N 33.0W 16.8N 36.0W 17.8N 38.9W
LBAR 15.4N 30.2W 15.7N 33.7W 16.4N 37.3W 17.1N 40.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 1800 080726 1800 080727 1800 080728 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 43.1W 20.7N 48.1W 24.5N 51.5W 28.2N 53.9W
BAMD 20.5N 40.1W 24.4N 42.2W 27.2N 41.4W 26.3N 39.5W
BAMM 19.1N 41.8W 22.4N 46.2W 25.8N 48.5W 28.4N 49.9W
LBAR 17.8N 43.9W 20.0N 48.7W 24.6N 51.7W 27.4N 54.7W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 56KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 56KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 30.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 26.0W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 21.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
519
WHXX01 KWBC 231809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080723 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080723 1800 080724 0600 080724 1800 080725 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 30.2W 15.8N 33.2W 16.3N 36.6W 17.0N 39.9W
BAMD 15.4N 30.2W 16.2N 32.9W 17.3N 35.6W 18.7N 38.0W
BAMM 15.4N 30.2W 15.9N 33.0W 16.8N 36.0W 17.8N 38.9W
LBAR 15.4N 30.2W 15.7N 33.7W 16.4N 37.3W 17.1N 40.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080725 1800 080726 1800 080727 1800 080728 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 43.1W 20.7N 48.1W 24.5N 51.5W 28.2N 53.9W
BAMD 20.5N 40.1W 24.4N 42.2W 27.2N 41.4W 26.3N 39.5W
BAMM 19.1N 41.8W 22.4N 46.2W 25.8N 48.5W 28.4N 49.9W
LBAR 17.8N 43.9W 20.0N 48.7W 24.6N 51.7W 27.4N 54.7W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 56KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 56KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 30.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 26.0W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 21.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The 18:00 UTC Ship forecast: In 48 hours,97L will reach the 26c threshold and from there its progressive warmer waters.
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/23/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 36 40 46 51 54 56 57 54
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 36 40 46 51 54 56 57 54
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 38 41 45 49 51
SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 6 9 9 15 12 18 10 15 16 19 19
SHEAR DIR 98 124 171 195 229 218 222 227 233 239 242 258 275
SST (C) 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 107 108 109 114 115 117 121 126 131 132 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 108 103 103 104 105 109 109 109 111 114 116 114 112
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 60 54 55 48 45 45 42 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR 106 105 98 89 77 62 41 15 -14 -33 -51 -67 -67
200 MB DIV -12 -5 12 1 9 4 -3 -4 7 -1 -4 7 -5
LAND (KM) 1364 1514 1665 1827 1990 2040 1955 1963 2036 1992 1957 1955 1964
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.6 22.4 24.1 25.8 27.3 28.4
LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.6 33.0 34.5 36.0 38.9 41.8 44.0 46.2 47.5 48.5 49.3 49.9
STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 15 17 16 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 34.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/23/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/23/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED
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- Blown Away
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
UKMET is the only system that continues 97L's SW motion, the rest seem to pull it NW wherever they initialize it.
If this stays low, I imagine we'll have something to keep an eye on.
If this stays low, I imagine we'll have something to keep an eye on.
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- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
EURO = ECMWF
EURO 96hrs
I believe the Low all the way to the right of the image is our invest.
Note: the EURO is more aggressive with the next wave
EURO 96hrs
I believe the Low all the way to the right of the image is our invest.
Note: the EURO is more aggressive with the next wave
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The models are back with 97L:
WHXX01 KWBC 251246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080725 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080725 1200 080726 0000 080726 1200 080727 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 41.0W 19.9N 44.0W 21.3N 46.5W 23.1N 48.8W
BAMD 18.5N 41.0W 19.7N 43.0W 21.0N 45.0W 22.7N 46.9W
BAMM 18.5N 41.0W 19.6N 43.6W 20.9N 45.9W 22.4N 48.1W
LBAR 18.5N 41.0W 19.7N 43.1W 21.1N 45.3W 23.0N 47.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080727 1200 080728 1200 080729 1200 080730 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 50.7W 28.8N 51.9W 30.8N 50.6W 31.9N 50.2W
BAMD 24.5N 48.6W 27.7N 50.1W 28.9N 49.3W 28.5N 48.9W
BAMM 24.1N 50.0W 27.2N 51.8W 28.5N 51.4W 28.4N 51.3W
LBAR 24.8N 49.0W 28.7N 50.0W 30.2N 47.8W 28.9N 45.2W
SHIP 43KTS 53KTS 56KTS 55KTS
DSHP 43KTS 53KTS 56KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 41.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 251246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080725 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080725 1200 080726 0000 080726 1200 080727 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 41.0W 19.9N 44.0W 21.3N 46.5W 23.1N 48.8W
BAMD 18.5N 41.0W 19.7N 43.0W 21.0N 45.0W 22.7N 46.9W
BAMM 18.5N 41.0W 19.6N 43.6W 20.9N 45.9W 22.4N 48.1W
LBAR 18.5N 41.0W 19.7N 43.1W 21.1N 45.3W 23.0N 47.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080727 1200 080728 1200 080729 1200 080730 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 50.7W 28.8N 51.9W 30.8N 50.6W 31.9N 50.2W
BAMD 24.5N 48.6W 27.7N 50.1W 28.9N 49.3W 28.5N 48.9W
BAMM 24.1N 50.0W 27.2N 51.8W 28.5N 51.4W 28.4N 51.3W
LBAR 24.8N 49.0W 28.7N 50.0W 30.2N 47.8W 28.9N 45.2W
SHIP 43KTS 53KTS 56KTS 55KTS
DSHP 43KTS 53KTS 56KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 41.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Contact:
By tomorrow shear shouldn't be a problem and SST are quite warm.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL972008 07/25/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 49 53 55 56 56 55
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 49 53 55 56 56 55
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 44 50 56 60 62 63
SHEAR (KTS) 25 19 11 9 11 4 8 6 4 12 11 14 11
SHEAR DIR 247 263 264 249 268 245 277 205 260 194 189 201 259
SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 118 119 125 131 135 136 136 133 133 133
ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 109 110 110 116 118 119 116 114 109 108 109
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 51 48 47 45 45 44 40 39 34 33
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 69 56 52 50 34 4 -28 -62 -80 -92 -96 -104 -105
200 MB DIV -19 -20 -19 14 2 -2 11 -2 1 3 -11 -16 -13
LAND (KM) 1958 1918 1889 1891 1902 1883 1749 1724 1734 1803 1846 1855 1848
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.3 20.9 22.4 24.1 25.9 27.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4
LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.3 43.6 44.8 45.9 48.1 50.0 51.1 51.8 51.7 51.4 51.3 51.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 9 6 4 1 0 1
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 5 8 13 19 21 23 19 16 16 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 07/25/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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