ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[galvestontx13]

what is stopping dolly from heading north to say freeport?

[ronjon]

I said in an earlier post to check what happens around the 95W Longitude. The dynamic models were indicating a N-NW movement for 12-18 hrs or so once Dolly reached this point. This may be happening now. In addition, I think we have a hurricane now with the reported pressure at 986 mb. Typical pressure range for CAT 1 is 980-989 mb.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale

[freport_texas21]

galvestontx13
Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:09 pm
Online
Tropical Low
Tropical Low

Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2007 2:47 pm
Posts: 17
what is stopping dolly from heading north to say freeport?

uh no! dont bring this to freeport!

[JPmia]

just looked at the brownsville radar...definitely a northward jog

[HouTXmetro]

MAJOR storms gathering just off the Upper TX/Louisiana coast. I hope these people are prepared for some training and flooding rains.

[galvestontx13]

I said in an earlier post to check what happens around the 95W Longitude. The dynamic models were indicating a N-NW movement for 12-18 hrs or so once Dolly reached this point. This may be happening now. In addition, I think we have a hurricane now with the reported pressure at 986 mb. Typical pressure range for CAT 1 is 980-989 mb.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale

they said earlier wider eye lower pressures.

[txwatcher91]

I said in an earlier post to check what happens around the 95W Longitude. The dynamic models were indicating a N-NW movement for 12-18 hrs or so once Dolly reached this point. This may be happening now. In addition, I think we have a hurricane now with the reported pressure at 986 mb. Typical pressure range for CAT 1 is 980-989 mb.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale

Yeah, the winds may take an hour or two to catch up but it should go ahead and be upgrade IMO as people take a cane more seriously than a tropical storm.

[hsvwx]

hsvwx, if that happens then we may well get a landfall in south Texas afterall but we will have to wait and see, as others have said this could just be a wobble but we wil lhave to see, once it gets closer to radar site we should get a better indication.

Still this system is certainly statrting to look better again and if it can head NW then that buys it another few hours over water.

I agree KWT, it maybe just a wobble due to the convection which fired on the south side wrapping its way around to the north and then towards the west. But it is pretty evident that even over the last 3 hours that the center is a good 20-30 miles north of its forecasted position, which causes great concern residents for the coastal areas of south Texas.

As far as strengthening is concerned, she should get wrapped up here in the next few hours and have a complete eyewall. While there is some dry air surrounding her, with an undisrupted eyewall, at least moderate strengthening should continue. I would imagine by the time landfall occurs late tomorrow morning, we could be looking at a low-mid category 2 hurricane, especially if this current movement is not a wobble.

[RL3AO]

I measured 342 @ 10.5 kt on radar over the past 90 minutes.

Not official, but interesting.

[Wx_Warrior]

From Corpus south

[CrazyC83]

I said in an earlier post to check what happens around the 95W Longitude. The dynamic models were indicating a N-NW movement for 12-18 hrs or so once Dolly reached this point. This may be happening now. In addition, I think we have a hurricane now with the reported pressure at 986 mb. Typical pressure range for CAT 1 is 980-989 mb.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale

Yeah, the winds may take an hour or two to catch up but it should go ahead and be upgrade IMO as people take a cane more seriously than a tropical storm.

They won't upgrade until they find data supporting such.

[galvestontx13]

I measured 342 @ 10.5 kt on radar over the past 90 minutes.

Not official, but interesting.

can you dumb that up for me?thanks

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

To have Hurricane Dolly, I would think the FL winds would need to be at least 71 kt (67 kt highest so far), or the SFMR would need to be at least 64 kt (58 kt highest so far)

[RL3AO]

I measured 342 @ 10.5 kt on radar over the past 90 minutes.

Not official, but interesting.

can you dumb that up for me?thanks

North-northwest at 12 mph.

[galvestontx13]

with the shape of texas coast wouldnt a continued north of west movement by dolly put it even further up the coast than corpus?

reason being is rita was supposed to hit brownsville so I tend to ask lots of questions now.. thanks

[hsvwx]

Convection starting to fire in the southwest quadrant as well as seen from the latest satellite images, as a result eye looks a bit elongated on visible imagery, but looks like she should have a complete eyewall shortly.

[93superstorm]

Wow Dolly is really wrapping up the last few hours.

[RL3AO]

with the shape of texas coast wouldnt a continued north of west movement by dolly put it even further up the coast than corpus?

Its forecasted to move wnw and nw. This NNW movement is just a wobble.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to fire in the southwest quadrant as well as seen from the latest satellite images, as a result eye looks a bit elongated on visible imagery, but looks like she should have a complete eyewall shortly.

agreed.