ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jinftl]

nothing gives you that 'chill down the spine' feeling like pics like this...thanks for posting...makes the situation all the more real for those of us not in dolly's path

Evacuation in Brownsville

[gatorcane]

Yep Gatorcane stronger convection now starting to work its way round on the southern side as well, only a matter of time before the eyewall finally closes up. IR also showing some more intense convection starting to come back in the eyewall on the western side.
Al lthis is a sign of strengthening occuring with Dolly, I think its only a matter of time before we have hurricane Dolly I'd have thought given the structure continues to improve.

There is no question that this thing is strengthening in my opinion, the eye should come out again over the next couple of hours.

[KWT]

The problem is this center will probably wobble about a lot as ther eis some pretty powerful convection developing in the eyewall at various points that may drag the center a little bit about and make it wobble til lit gets stronger and better stacked up.

[jasons2k]

Just a tidbit - I noticed on the last VDM that the surface center and FLC are 10 nm apart. The radar depiction is closer to the FLC so we're not seeing exactly where the surface center is, but it's very close. It should be perfectly stacked very shortly though.

[Wx_Warrior]

Been there, done that....Took me 9 hours to go 90 miles north.

[artist]

Indeed just shows the use of the cone gatorcane but sadly many people just pay attention to the line.

hiflyer, thanks so stil lgot a little while yet before we see conditions really go down hill for south Texas and northern Mexico.

I actually really dislike the line...I think they should just go with a cone of uncertainty, so people in that whole cone will pay attention and take the proper precautions to safe life and property.

according to Team4News online 63% of the people responding to a poll in Brownsville said they are not prepared.

[deltadog03]

Great points Jason! It appears that the MLC or flight level center is moving NW or NNW...I mean, the radar beam is showing us what is at 15k.

[drezee]

Based on the HCT assertion, I would say that rapid intensification would start after 2115Z (515pm Eastern). not much time to go before landfall, so probably likely to not go major with current speed.

Note: I believe that RI starts in less than 3 hours now...

[KWT]

Well its possible Dreeze but I'm not sure unless the center gets stacked, i do think that at least moderate strengthening is pretty close now though with the eyewall is close to closing up at last, maybe RI who knows I suppose?

[gatorcane]

Dvorak image shows some shades of darker greys on the western side of the eye. Those are probably where some of the strongest winds are. But note the NE Quad is where the strongest winds typically are (and where they may end up before landfall).

[Stormcenter]

She's is looking more and more impressive.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[wxmann_91]

Evacuation in Brownsville

HAHA... watch for pelicans when flashing. LOL.

[caribepr]

For those who don't know their compass degrees, here is a very simple compass rose so the numbers used when discussing direction make more sense.

[KWT]

gatorcane, only need the deeper convection to move a little further to the east and connect up with the other side of the eyewall and we will see this system strengthen pretty good. Eye is pretty clear as day there as well, sure do hope it doesn't strengthen too much from now to be honest!

[jhamps10]

looking at radar, the last few frames are showing very little movement compaired to just a bit ago. looks like she is slowing down some more. and the only movement I see is NW or maybe even NNW....

[gatorcane]

gatorcane, only need the deeper convection to move a little further to the east and connect up with the other side of the eyewall and we will see this system strengthen pretty good. Eye is pretty clear as day there as well, sure do hope it doesn't strengthen too much from now to be honest!

you are right lets see what happens. Good point BTW.

[JPmia]

Evacuation in Brownsville

HAHA... watch for pelicans when flashing. LOL.

that's funny...im sure there will be a couple of other 'things' flying tomorrow....I thought Texas used contraflow evacs.?

[gatorcane]

About the Pelicans if you don't see any that is a BAD sign. Birds and wildlife can "sense" an approaching hurricane fairly well.

[galvestontx13]

well there is always this option..

i posted last night when i came .. its simulated radar

from the WRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

i would say its doing a pretty good job.. so far

That is exactley what I see dolly doing. which isnt good. at least it will be shallow water and she will be draggin.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Evacuation in Brownsville

HAHA... watch for pelicans when flashing. LOL.

that's funny...im sure there will be a couple of other 'things' flying tomorrow....I thought Texas used contraflow evacs.?

I believe that is the replacement Isabella causeway bridge. A few years ago a tug pushing barges had an issue and hit the bridge, collapsing a section and killing several motorists. Anyway, those are people from Padre Island leaving, not the city of Brownsville, if I'm not mistaken.