ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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KWT
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#6641 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:12 pm

rockyman, thanks for that, so we are still expecting this to reach 80kts as a peak strength, indeed thats really not all that far away from being a category-2 is it...

jhamps10, given estimate is at 305 from the NHC that makes it damn close to Bro for a landfall.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6642 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:13 pm

Ill ask again...is this forecast to slow down further?
And it looks like its continuing to go north of forecast...this is going to be a big problem for the texas coast, especially if it slows down even further, which might give it up to 20 hours left.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6643 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:14 pm

Good ol' EURO is licking his/her chops right now!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6644 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:14 pm

Image

LOOK MA, NO LINE!
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#6645 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:15 pm

radar center is looking more impressive
Last edited by drezee on Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6646 Postby Seadootoo » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:15 pm

hsvwx wrote:Avila is sticking with a high Cat. 1 landfall, but I still believe that a low-mid end Cat. 2 is possible. Radar and satellite presentations must be deceiving, because they surely do not look to show a motion of 305. As Avila states, it is important not to follow the line. Everyone in the cone should pay very close attention.



I'm in Corpus and I'm watching Dolly's every move, lol
Last edited by Seadootoo on Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6647 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:15 pm

Looks a lot better on radar.

Image
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#6648 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:15 pm

I agree hsvwx there is every chance if the convection continues to explode like it has done (cloud tops close to -90C!!!) and the eyewall continues to wrap around and eentually totally closes off then I have no reason to think that we can't make it to cat-2, esp if the current rate of deepening over the last 9-12hrs can continue.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6649 Postby hsvwx » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:17 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Ill ask again...is this forecast to slow down further?
And it looks like its continuing to go north of forecast...this is going to be a big problem for the texas coast, especially if it slows down even further, which might give it up to 20 hours left.


Yes, I reduction in forward speed is expected as Dolly approaches an area of weak steering currents before the suptropical ridge builds back in forcing Dolly westward. It will be interesting to see when that subtropical ridge builds in. With the alignment of Texas' coastline, it makes all the difference in the world for a landfall of Brownsville or one for Corpus Christi.
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#6650 Postby Cat5x » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:17 pm

The models nailed this one from 5 days ago for direction and last 3 - 4 days on intensity as well. I know 4+ days ago some model runs were predicting a cat5 but once Dolly officially formed they were all mostly predicting a Cat1.

Pretty impressed with the way the models handled this one.
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#6651 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:18 pm

Wow well if that happems Dreeze it would be pretty scary stuff, we will have to wait and see but at least in the short term I see no reason why that sor tof strengthening can't continue to occur.

RL3AO, you can really see the deep convection there with Dolly and the eyewall is looking good, also some cells moving towards Texas it seems in the next 6hrs.
Last edited by KWT on Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6652 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:18 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah does sound pretty interesting Dreeze, about 15-16hrs til llandfall from the sounds of things, also just in time for Dmax as well...

landfall looks slap bang on the border of Mexico and Texas, Bro. would get hammered if that hpapened by the western eyewall which is pretty explosive in terms of convection right now.


from the 500pm discussion:
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED....
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

If it slows down as the NHC predicts and keeps the current rate of intensification then...yuck!!!

24hr * 1.25mb/hr = 30 mb drop

= 956 mb ~ 121 mph
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6653 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:19 pm

hsvwx wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Ill ask again...is this forecast to slow down further?
And it looks like its continuing to go north of forecast...this is going to be a big problem for the texas coast, especially if it slows down even further, which might give it up to 20 hours left.


Yes, I reduction in forward speed is expected as Dolly approaches an area of weak steering currents before the suptropical ridge builds back in forcing Dolly westward. It will be interesting to see when that subtropical ridge builds in. With the alignment of Texas' coastline, it makes all the difference in the world for a landfall of Brownsville or one for Corpus Christi.

Thanks and I agree with you about when the ridge builds back...if it doesnt build back in time then things dont look good!
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6654 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:19 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:17:06UTC
Minimum pressure: 990mb

18:45UTC
Minimum pressure: 988mb

20:20UTC
Minimum pressure: 986mb

4mb/3.2h = 1.25mb drop per hour

15 hours from landfall at current rate

18.75 mb drop ~ 967mb ~ 107mpn


correction:

NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.

16.5 hours from landfall

20.625 mb drop ~ 965mb ~ 110mph

Do you all think it will continue to slow down?


storms always do strange things before landfall....needs just to go in and die
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6655 Postby Cat5x » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:22 pm

hsvwx wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Ill ask again...is this forecast to slow down further?
And it looks like its continuing to go north of forecast...this is going to be a big problem for the texas coast, especially if it slows down even further, which might give it up to 20 hours left.


Yes, I reduction in forward speed is expected as Dolly approaches an area of weak steering currents before the suptropical ridge builds back in forcing Dolly westward. It will be interesting to see when that subtropical ridge builds in. With the alignment of Texas' coastline, it makes all the difference in the world for a landfall of Brownsville or one for Corpus Christi.
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#6656 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:22 pm

hsvwx, yeah indeed if it slows down then it also has more time to strengthen yet further as well, mind you the models I've seen slow this way down right by the coast.
Still if it does slow down and keeps uop this current set-up I can well see this getting into the category-2 range as you reckon as well, Derek Ortt just said this could make it to 100mph before landfall.
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Re:

#6657 Postby hsvwx » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:25 pm

KWT wrote:hsvwx, yeah indeed if it slows down then it also has more time to strengthen yet further as well, mind you the models I've seen slow this way down right by the coast.


Taking the 12Z GFS as the "truth", this thing almost stalls right off the coast!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6658 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:28 pm

If it were to stall off the coast, I know that would give it more time to strengthen, but wouldn't it also cause upwelling and perhaps cause the opposite to happen?
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6659 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:31 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:If it were to stall off the coast, I know that would give it more time to strengthen, but wouldn't it also cause upwelling and perhaps cause the opposite to happen?


only if it stalls for like 2 or 3 days,
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6660 Postby hsvwx » Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:32 pm

I believe someone already posted the 00Z SPC WRF product, but it seems to have done a marvelous job with its forecast for the hurricane today, and has it moving at about 340 at 12Z tomorrow headed towards Corpus Christi. It also has an improving hurricane structure through the end of its run. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. Anyone within NHCs cone should be just about finished making all the preparations to protect life and property. All one has to do is point at Hurricane Charley to see that conditions at landfall can change drastically even within a few hours! And we are still 16-20 hours away from landfall!
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