ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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HURAKAN
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Re: Re:

#6701 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If the current intensification continues, the NHC's top intensity of 90 mph could be reached at 11 PM tonight. This is becoming ever more serious.



very true..

since there is nothing inhibiting. it. there is no reason that RI will not occur.. at least on a modest scale..


I feel that a TC struggles most of the time to get to hurricane, but after that, if conditions are favorable, you must expect them to take the express lane. Dolly has everything working on her side. For the first time in its entire almost two weeks life!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6702 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:18 pm

Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.
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#6703 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:18 pm

I think those worrying about the websites will see them rather quickly change once this gets into the category-2 range which I think is looking odds on now.

wxman57, yep so category-2 then I take it. If this does swing just a little south of the border then Bro is going to take a major hit from the northern quadrants which could lead to some pretty impressive damage. don't think it will reach major status either but mid-high cat-2 is possible if it continues to bomb like currently.
Last edited by KWT on Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6704 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:19 pm

artist wrote:
hiflyer wrote:Having early Katrina go thru here first I watched New Orleans tv streaming live as she approached there....and got the same sort of reporting....not coming here...not a major threat.....to the point that it felt like the NHC was the only one yelling...kicking...and screaming about getting folks moving.

Looked at the TV stations both at Brownsville and Corpus and did not find any streaming their on air live....out of Corpus on NBC you can get the last forecast but could not find a live continual feed......and to be honest found their respective websites not really up to date. Same with the official city of Brownsville site...no mention of the storm.

Sad.

not only sad but a travesty in my opinion re the city's website, particularly.


Our local station owners in Corpus are CHEAP...everytime I visit Houston or San Antonio the local new hours look like one of the Morning shows on the big 3
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#6705 Postby artist » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:22 pm

did anyone see they are asking for volunteers to man some of the shelters at this late date? That was at 11"47 central time today. There is an article about here-
http://newschannel5.tv/2008/7/22/994942 ... -Shelters-


"We're looking for about 30 to 40 able-bodied men and women who are ready to work long hours and help their fellow residents," said Hidalgo County Emergency Management Coordinator and Fire Marshal Tony Peña Jr. "Volunteers' duties would include registering evacuees, coordinating with service agencies like the Salvation Army for feeding evacuees and providing for the safety and security of these special needs residents."
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Re: Re:

#6706 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:very true..

since there is nothing inhibiting. it. there is no reason that RI will not occur.. at least on a modest scale..


The thing that may slow down the strengthening rate after 6-9hrs is any midlevel dry air from Mexico/Texas that may get injested somewhat into the circulation. I doub tit wil lbe enough to stop strengthening but may limit the speed at which its currently bombing which I have to admit is pretty impressive and serious for those in far south Texas in the track of Dolly.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6707 Postby hiflyer » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:23 pm

Irak u got a nice cluster of storms coming at ya...about 40 miles off the coast.......betcha it shakes up the news folks.
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#6708 Postby BreinLa » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:25 pm

Irak, take care make sure to keep us informed, hope you and your family don't get the brunt of this storm
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6709 Postby boca » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:26 pm

Its amazing that not a single tv stations in Corpus or Brownsville is streaming.If this was happening here in S FL we would of been streaming live since probably the morning.I guess its the size of the market area.
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#6710 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:26 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/22:00:10Z
B. 24 deg 44 min N
095 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. 66 kt
E. 311 deg 20 nm
F. 048 deg 062 kt
G. 311 deg 033 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 10 C/ 3035 m
J. 13 C/ 3053 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 1604A DOLLY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 20:29:30 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6711 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:26 pm

17:06UTC
Minimum pressure: 990mb

18:45UTC
Minimum pressure: 988mb

20:20UTC
Minimum pressure: 986mb

22:00UTC
Minimum pressure: 984mb

still approx 1.25 per hour
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6712 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.


So with all the data you have Mr. wxman57 it looks like Corpus Christi will receive nice feeder bands for a couple of days and may receive 40mph gusts? The storm seems to have gotten smaller.

thanks
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6713 Postby orion » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:26 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with Aric as far as everything is right for Dolly to continue strengthening. Will it have time to strengthen before landfall? I think it could very likely reach a weak cat 2 or at least a very strong cat 1. I have been trying to learn by going through the Dvorak worksheets on my own and comparing that with the 'real' numbers. Anyone wanting to learn more about the structure and intensity of TCs - I highly recommend that.

Having been through several 'weaker' hurricanes (and even tropical storms), I hope all those anywhere in its possible path have taken precautions - the power behind even a weak hurricane can be amazing.

Also, I have switched the radar on my sight to a more zoomed in view showing the base reflectivity at the .5 degree tilt instead of the longer range 248nm that was there. If you are interested, it is at:

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

and I will keep it there through the duration of Dolly's pass over the area.

~orion
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6714 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:27 pm

drezee wrote:17:06UTC
Minimum pressure: 990mb

18:45UTC
Minimum pressure: 988mb

20:20UTC
Minimum pressure: 986mb

22:00UTC
Minimum pressure: 984mb

still approx 1.25 per hour

once that eye clears out, that rate is going to get much larger i believe.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6715 Postby Seadootoo » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:29 pm

sounds like the Navy is flying their planes out of NASCC. I'm hearing them takeoff about every 15mins. or so.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6716 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:29 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:Image


Now I like that graphic!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6717 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:29 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:Image

Wow theyre way off...If that were the case it would have to be moving at like 280 to make that.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6718 Postby mattpetre » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.


The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6719 Postby carversteve » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:30 pm

For it to be considered RI..does it not need to drop 1.75 mb every hour? How many hours of that does it need to be,to be classified as RI? If there was a 2mb drop in the past hour,how many more hours of that does there need to be..Just a very curious weather nut!!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6720 Postby lrak » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:30 pm

Seadootoo wrote:sounds like the Navy is flying their planes out of NASCC. I'm hearing them takeoff about every 15mins. or so.


Wow we are close, I live at Rodd Field and Saratoga. I can see them taking off and a little rumble every once in a while.
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