ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Scorpion]

I believe 2.5 mb per hour is RI

[wxman57]

Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.

So with all the data you have Mr. wxman57 it looks like Corpus Christi will receive nice feeder bands for a couple of days and may receive 40mph gusts? The storm seems to have gotten smaller.

thanks

What I told our clients there is that if the TS winds actually extend 150nm from Dolly's center as per NHC, then that line passes just north of Corpus. It means that there may be periods tomorrow when winds across the bay reach 40-45 mph sustained with gusts 50-60 mph. Inland a few miles, winds will be lower. Typical winds there tomorrow over the bay from the east at 25-35 mph and gusty. Core of heaviest rain will pass to the south. Not much different if Dolly moves inland 20-30 miles north of Brownsville. Enjoy the few inches of rain you may get. If you're real lucky you could get 3-5 inches. Watch for a tornado watch to be issued overnight. Corpus will be in the watch, most likely.

[srainhoutx]

sounds like the Navy is flying their planes out of NASCC. I'm hearing them takeoff about every 15mins. or so.

Getting those assets out of there. Not surprised at all.

[Seadootoo]

sounds like the Navy is flying their planes out of NASCC. I'm hearing them takeoff about every 15mins. or so.

Wow we are close, I live at Rodd Field and Saratoga. I can see them taking off and a little rumble every once in a while.

I'm in the Bluff near Waldron field.

[KWT]

Yep Dreeze will deepening at a pretty quick rate, the longer that holds then the greater chance it has of getting into the 100mph+ range.

boca, yep I think eventually they wil lhave to start streaming though, surely!

Hurakan, this system certainly is starting to get increasingly impressive looking right now, the pressure of 984mbs really doesn't surprise me. Anyway deep convection still exploding now in the eyewall going over the top of the eye thats present.

[lrak]

Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

Now I do remember someone saying the exact thing about Bret regarding our Big Bend...Hmmm.

[wxman57]

Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

That's true, but the high center should be shoving it west in the morning. I didn't say there's no threat farther north, just that I see no indications of a course change. Obviously, residents down there need to pay attention.

[txwatcher91]

When Bertha cleared her eye she went from a Cat 1 to Cat 3 in 12 hours! When Dolly begins clearing her eye watch out!
07/07 9 GMT 19.30 -50.20 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 994 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 975 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 21 GMT 20.10 -52.10 115 948 Category 3 Hurricane

[PauleinHouston]

Anyone been watching that huge convective wedge coming up off Yucatan...this baby have that kind of pull to it??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

once that eye clears out, that rate is going to get much larger i believe.

I'm not sure the eye really clear out til lthis reaches around 90-100mph, I've seen systems like this with very active CDO and eyewalls that have very cold cloud tops only pop an eye when they are much stronger and in the category-2 range, though of course the eye is still obviously present under that very deep convection.

[lrak]

Back at home now. Looking at Brownsville radar using GARP. I've been measuring a movement toward about 295-299 degrees all afternoon. Moved about 299 degrees at 10 kts the past 3 hours. That path would put it ashore right at the TX/MX border. Looks good to me. Now that it's visible on radar you'll be able to see the 10-20 mile left and right of track wobbles as it moves toward the coast. It shouldn't move ashore too far from the NHC position. I'm forecasting 95 mph and 970-973 mb at landfall. Winds may be a little stronger than that, too. Probably not enough time to get to major strength, but i'll be quite a blow for Brownsville. Power will likely be out for many days.

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

That's true, but the high center should be shoving it west in the morning. I didn't say there's no threat farther north, just that I see no indications of a course change. Obviously, residents down there need to pay attention.

Thank you Mr.wxman57

[KWT]

wxman57 what do you think of the GFS which pretty much stalls Dolly right around landfall?
If that happens surely we are looking at a very severe risk of flooding I'd have thought.

[Cape Verde]

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

Except that landfall further north of Brownsville would actually threaten far fewer people. There's practically nothing between Brownsville and Kingsville, except my favorite hunting ranch.

A direct blow on Brownsville or even south of it would be devastating to that city, and especially to the colonias of cheap housing which has sprung up and never experienced a hurricane. Even a few dozen miles north of Brownsville would make a huge difference.

[cheezyWXguy]

once that eye clears out, that rate is going to get much larger i believe.

I'm not sure the eye really clear out til lthis reaches around 90-100mph, I've seen systems like this with very active CDO and eyewalls that have very cold cloud tops only pop an eye when they are much stronger and in the category-2 range, though of course the eye is still obviously present under that very deep convection.

well at the rate this is deepening, about 2mb every vdm, it shouldnt be long. Im expecting probably 80 or 85mph at most in the 7pm adviosry, and maybe 90mph or possible higher at the 10pm, if it starts clearing the eye. Every new radar image ive seen shows a progressively better formed eye.

[wxman57]

wxman57 what do you think of the GFS which pretty much stalls Dolly right around landfall?
If that happens surely we are looking at a very severe risk of flooding I'd have thought.

I think it will slow down after landfall, down to 5-6 mph. That's why we're forecasting average rainfall amounts 8-12 inches with some totals 15-20 inches in the lower valley.

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Very ominous radar signature, clearly defined eye.

[mattpetre]

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

Except that landfall further north of Brownsville would actually threaten far fewer people. There's practically nothing between Brownsville and Kingsville, except my favorite hunting ranch.

A direct blow on Brownsville or even south of it would be devastating to that city, and especially to the colonias of cheap housing which has sprung up and never experienced a hurricane. Even a few dozen miles north of Brownsville would make a huge difference.

I hear what you are saying and I guess for the time being hope this could hit just a little north of Brownsville (which I sort of suspect will occur) and cause the least amount of damage overall as possible.

[mattpetre]

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

That's true, but the high center should be shoving it west in the morning. I didn't say there's no threat farther north, just that I see no indications of a course change. Obviously, residents down there need to pay attention.

I think you are probably correct (and I know you definately understand these things better than I do), I was just surprised how much the high pressure eroded today (just didn't think it would be quite so drastic) but if it hadn't I'm sure this would have already been inland in MX. Have to say, the models are doing marvelously well so far.

[lrak]

The thing about this part of the coastline however, is that if it has a path just a little to the right of where you are saying it can bring the storm many miles further north of the border. I worry about that and lack preparation.

Except that landfall further north of Brownsville would actually threaten far fewer people. There's practically nothing between Brownsville and Kingsville, except my favorite hunting ranch.

A direct blow on Brownsville or even south of it would be devastating to that city, and especially to the colonias of cheap housing which has sprung up and never experienced a hurricane. Even a few dozen miles north of Brownsville would make a huge difference.

In the last few years that nick of the woods has slowly been populated. A&I Kingsville, border enforcement, drug enforcement, and Port Mansfields fishing tourism has increased the population since Bret. You're exactly right a direct hit on Brownsville would devastate the poor.

[KWT]

Yep those are pretty rainfall totals there thanks wxman57.
Normandy, yep this hurricane is looking increasingly impressive right now IMO, I'm pretty confident we will have a landfalling category-2 right now as long as it can keep up this current development speed.