Morning Claudette thoughts

[Derek Ortt]

Not much changed track wise from yesterday. Still looks as if this will make a westerly turn in about 48 to 72 hours as the ridge builds. Still looking at a Texas or Mexican landfall.

As for intensity, still looking at a hurricane at landfall, possibly a category 2 hurricane as conditions should be favorable for development in the GOM

[cycloneye]

On both accounts that you said in your post Derek I agree but we know about intensity what this system has done and has been a nightmare to forecast that part but it is fair to say that finnaly it will be a hurricane in the GOM.My thinking is that a landfall will occur at the Texas coast but still the exact area of the texas coast still is to far to say but I am leaning more to a south Texas landfall north of Brownsville near where hurricane Bret made landfall.Let's see how this pans out in comming days.

[Tip]

So far the historical track of claudette since it has moved into the western Carribean has consistently been to the right of the hurricane models (except for LBAR). One thing for sure is that it will not track over the bulk of the Yucatan as earlier predicted and that means she will not have as much trouble reorganizing in GOM. In fact latest IR shots show she may just nip the northwest corner of the Yucatan or miss it completely.

[rainstorm]

105 kts, brownsville to houston watch out

[JCT777]

105 kts, brownsville to houston watch out

This is very possible. Larry Cosgrove (aka LC) mentioned in his newsletter today that he thinks Claudette will undergo rapid intensification once she gets into the GOM, and she has a good chance of hitting the central or south Texas coast. :o

[capecodder]

Pretty interesting how this morning's position was established. The "old fashioned" way, using land based wind direction observations.

[Colin]

I'm thinking Claudette will make landfall in SE Texas...that's what my official vote in the thread where you could vote where you thought she'd make landfall, so I'm sticking with that.