Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[alienstorm]

Yet another Strong Tropical Wave inside Africa that shows rotation and has a low pressure area, this will take another 2 - 3 days before it exits but should exit much further south. So this could possible be yet another July system.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/De ... /index.htm

[punkyg]

does it have model support?

[njweather]

Yep. The models show a low right off the coast in approx. 108 hours.

00Z CMC, 108hrs:


06Z GFS, 108hrs:

[Gustywind]

Yet another Strong Tropical Wave inside Africa that shows rotation and has a low pressure area, this will take another 2 - 3 days before it exits but should exit much further south. So this could possible be yet another July system.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/De ... /index.htm

Interresting, let's see what happens within the next 24 48h....
Conditions seems really improving ahead this future system ( if if something forms first), weak SAL and winds are pretty low and on decreasing trend, maybe a window of opportunity for our next cane player...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Winds are abatting between Africa and the East Carib, pretty low values down the road...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Sal is pretty weak...
To sum up, let's wait and see within the 24 48h what will happen on this wave....

[KWT]

Well ther eis a lot of convection along the wave axis, perfectly normal right now and not as well developed as 97L but doesn't mean it shouldn't be watched. I wonder how it will look once it hits the waters.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am slightly more interested in this system than I am in 97L. It looks like it will be coming offshore further south, and thus will have a much better environment for possible development.

[canegrl04]

This one may be more likely to impact coastal US.Depends on if there is still a strong ridge that would steer it to Mexico/cental America

[Mecklenburg]

hmm... this is really interesting...

[njweather]

This one has potential folks...

18Z GFS, 144hrs :



Looks Caribbean bound...

[canegrl04]

This one has potential folks...

18Z GFS, 144hrs :



Looks Caribbean bound...

Not a good sign for the US

[Vortex]

Folks,

This system to emerge off the African coast over the next 2-3 days is one to watch very closely. Unlike it's predecessors this storm has a good chance at making it very far west. This storm stands a good chance at not only impacting the islands of the carribean but also the US. Model runs have been consistent and all medium range guidance suggests ridging to the north will be/remain well establised throughout it trec across the basin.

[Frank2]

Let's wait and see - the same ominous comments were said of the wave that came off Africa two days ago, but, we know what became of that one...

[ConvergenceZone]

Let's wait and see - the same ominous comments were said of the wave that came off Africa two days ago, but, we know what became of that one...

true, BUT that wave was further north, so most agreed that it would be taken out to sea... Regardless, it's a bit scary that we are seeing all this activity and it's only July...

[KWT]

Well it doesn't look all that organised but then again its very early days for this wave. If it does stayweak remember what happened with 94L that stayed weak...now its a landfalling hurricane in S.Texas. Needs to be watched closely.

[njweather]

Let's wait and see - the same ominous comments were said of the wave that came off Africa two days ago, but, we know what became of that one...

Fair enough. The wave is expected to hit the water in three days, so we'll know by week's end.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS tries to develop this system as it pushes towards the islands in 5-8 days:

120 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120s.gif

144 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif

168 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif

192 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192s.gif

216 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216s.gif

Things could definitely get interesting with this one..

[Gustywind]

towards the islands, hummm that 's not too interresting Extremeweatherguy, it's just the first runs, don't play with that.... just take it easy Extremeweatherguy, we have time for that if something really happens...

[jhamps10]

The 12z GFS tries to develop this system as it pushes towards the islands in 5-8 days:

120 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120s.gif

144 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif

168 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif

192 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192s.gif

216 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216s.gif

Things could definitely get interesting with this one..

to add, it has it at 288 off the NC coast. it is a watcher, sure the calendar isn't mid august?

[Cyclenall]

Let's wait and see - the same ominous comments were said of the wave that came off Africa two days ago, but, we know what became of that one...

Yes, it's staying weak and NOT recurving making the threat to land higher after 100 hours or so.

[KWT]

Its very interesting but the futrue track of this wave if it does do anything will probably depend alot on what 97L does, if it strengthens and finds a weakness then I bet this one will follow it through...however this is a lot further south and is a bigger threat down the line IMO.