ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think KWT was including chaos and confusion as states.

I haven't been here much of past two days because of business. Not lack of interest. I think the biggest concern would be a slow moving hurricane containing lots of rain with sustained hurricane force winds. Has s Texas received a lot of rain recently? Will S Padre Island flood because of storm surge. 10 to 15 inches of rain would flood anyone, anywhere. A few prayers for Texas tonight.

Most of South Texas has been in a moderate to severe drought.

[ROCK]

Guess Joe B forgot about his 1989 analog year..............Allison, Chantal, and Jerry. The chance of another Texas threat is very possible this year.

In fairness, West of I-45 in Harris County, most people could hardly tell a minimal Cat 1 had hit Galveston.


Jerry was also one of only 2 October hurricanes to hit Texas in 60 years.

Fairness? was a cat1 and hit TX after Allison....Its not law of averages Ed, it call unlucky.

[RL3AO]

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?

Nice catch.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

[baygirl_1]

Important note from the discussion IMO.
SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.

Okay, does this storm remind anyone else of Danny in 1997? Areas around Mobile Bay received 20"-40" of rain during that storm. It was awful! I certainly hope Dolly doesn't do that to Texas and Mexico.
Here's more on Danny: http://www.usouthal.edu/meteorology/hurricanedanny.html

[OuterBanker]

Has there been a post yet of the number and names of affected members?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not betting the farm on this, but I think center is just Northeast of coldest (white) cloud tops, and a band is trying to 'backbuild (but to the East) around the center.

On this radar loop

[Ed Mahmoud]

Has there been a post yet of the number and names of affected members?

lrak (name is Karl) lives near Corpus Christi, and a couple of Rio Grande Valley residents have posted on local impact/report/warning thread.

[stevetampa33614]

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?

How about learning to use the Internet? A simple google search yields the result.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspo ... 08&storm=4

[hurrican19]

Here are some pics I snapped from Galveston today.. I was suprised by the wind on the beach, and the wave heights.. All pics taken from my cell..

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch issued...

[cheezyWXguy]

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?

How about learning to use Internet? A simple google search yields the result.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspo ... 08&storm=4

Ok umm assuming Im stupid, why dont you check the intensity on what you just posted? It says its 80mph, not 85...get your facts straight.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALLEN
TEXAS TO 10 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 730...WW 731...

DISCUSSION...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND FALLING HURRICANE DOLLY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE
INTENSIFY DURING THE NIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 03040.


...EVANS

[stevetampa33614]

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?

Nice catch.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Well never get info from another forum. 80 NOT 86

[Ed Mahmoud]

Windspeed still pretty low in Laguna Madre between CRP and BRO.

I expect that to change shortly


Observation from Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX

[RL3AO]

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (30%)

[jasons2k]

Time to crash, see you on the flip. Prayers for the LRGV region for sure. This is one prediction I didn't want to see come true.

[artist]

can you back up your info or are you just assuming?

Nice catch.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

Well never get info from another forum. 80 NOT 86

common courtesy goes a long way. Around here people are usually asked to supply a reasoning behind their statement or if it is from an advisory to actually mention it. Not just throw something out there. It is also against board rules to post other forums. Since you are fairly new I feel certain you didn't realize this yet. Just thought you might like to know.

[ROCK]

ULL to her NW is eating at her...see her flatten out on the NW...ULL to the SW restricting as well....trof digging in the plains.....she really is moving slow in the last few frames...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

Time to crash, see you on the flip. Prayers for the LRGV region for sure. This is one prediction I didn't want to see come true.

Good night Jason. Agree with the prayers fro the LRGV.

[HarlequinBoy]

This could be a major flood event for deep south Texas. She's moving pretty slow. She may be a drought buster in some areas as well, but along the border this will be a serious flood situation, imo.