ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ptarmigan]

Okay, does this storm remind anyone else of Danny in 1997? Areas around Mobile Bay received 20"-40" of rain during that storm. It was awful! I certainly hope Dolly doesn't do that to Texas and Mexico.
Here's more on Danny: http://www.usouthal.edu/meteorology/hurricanedanny.html

Hurricane Danny dumped 43" in parts of Mobile Bay. If that fell on land, that would lead to massive flooding. Alvin had 43" in 1979 from Claudette. Don't get me started with Allison in 2001. 28" fell in 12 hours! One estimate that up to 33" fell in 12 hours during Allison! South Texas has had very heavy rain from stalled out storms. Beulah in 1967 comes to mind. It dumped up to 30" of rain. Also, it was a Category 5 hurricane before it made landfall.

[ekal]

There is some rotation associated with the cell just offshore to the northeast of Brownsville. Right where the rainband is kinked. Watch for a tornado warning on it.

[HouTXmetro]

Satellite images makes it appeatr that Dolly is almost Due West of Brownsville. Maybe Landfall further up the coast unless she starts to move due west now.

[Hurricaneman13]

It looks like it is nearly stationary off the coast right now. The GFS was correct again.

[ROCK]

It looks like it is nearly stationary off the coast right now. The GFS was correct again.

as was the NAM.....

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 36 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY BY 1135 PM CDT.
EASTERN BRONWSVILLE AND THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE BY 1140 PM CDT.

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like it is nearly stationary off the coast right now. The GFS was correct again.

How long did the GFS predict Dolly would stay stationary?

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't hold it to me but I believe at least for a few hours or so...

[Hurricaneman13]

It looks like it is nearly stationary off the coast right now. The GFS was correct again.

How long did the GFS predict Dolly would stay stationary?

I'm not quite sure how long. I would say a couple days since I was watching the models, but I'm not too sure.

[HouTXmetro]

So once motion resumes it should be West right?

[vaffie]

It looks like it is nearly stationary off the coast right now. The GFS was correct again.

How long did the GFS predict Dolly would stay stationary?

The 00Z has it staying at or near Brownsville for the next 24 hours, then it moves west.

[ROCK]

is the eye clearing out on SAt or is that an illusion of some kind?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[ekal]

There is some rotation associated with the cell just offshore to the northeast of Brownsville. Right where the rainband is kinked. Watch for a tornado warning on it.

You're good...

I was talking about the cell just crossing the barrier islands now, but thanks.

[americanrebel]

Was wondering what everyone thought of Dr. Lyons saying Cat 4 into Houston?

[Wx_Warrior]

Dude, seriously.... Link please!

[Hurricaneman13]

I highly doubt that it will be a Cat 4 hitting Houston unless it moves northward and strengthens rapidly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was just looking at the IR when I came in a few minutes ago. It does look like a eye is forming with reds. The next 24 hours could see this strengthing into a cat2.

[HouTXmetro]

Was wondering what everyone thought of Dr. Lyons saying Cat 4 into Houston?

He was speaking in general about how catostrophic a Cat 4 would be to Houston. Not about Dolly inparticular.

If that happened with Dolly alot of mets at the NHC would not have a job after this.

[Aric Dunn]

this is getting more serious as radar continues to show improved orginzation. and deeper convection

[Pebbles]

Was wondering what everyone thought of Dr. Lyons saying Cat 4 into Houston?

Oh come on now that's misquoting. Not beyond the realm of possibility means It is possible (which as a scientist he has to concide) but not very likey.

Edit: oh your ACTUALLY asking what everyone's response was. Well.. same answer still applies.