ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on recon the low level cirulation is becoming inline with the mid level cir/eye feature. I think mid level shear has finally droped low enough to allow for this to go to town. The reds are also starting to wrap, now all we look for is for the eye to tighten and clear out.

[Pebbles]

if this rides up the coast to Kenedy County, it would be a good thing b/c Kenedy County is very sparsely populated.

Are you saying my dirty little secret isn't so dirty? And here I was trying to exciting for once! On a side note that's good to know. Don't know well how the population density is set up along the TX coast.

[jconsor]

Hi there. I a meteorologist living on the other side of the world from the US (and far from any tropical activity, to my chagrin), but some of my work relates to hurricanes and typhoons, so I keep a close eye on the tropics.

The two vortex messages from the recon aircraft (23Z and 4Z) gives a motion of 307 degrees (northwest) at 8 mph. (Here is a good site for calculating distance and bearing between two points: http://www.fcc.gov/fcc-bin/distance). Extrapolation using this motion gives a landfall at 25.9N 97.15W, or about 6 miles south of the US-Mexico border.

[RL3AO]

Hi there. I a meteorologist living on the other side of the world from the US (and far from any tropical activity, to my chagrin), but some of my work relates to hurricanes and typhoons, so I keep a close eye on the tropics.

The two vortex messages from the recon aircraft (23Z and 4Z) gives a motion of 307 degrees (northwest) at 8 mph. (Here is a good site for calculating distance and bearing between two points: http://www.fcc.gov/fcc-bin/distance). Extrapolation using this motion gives a landfall at 25.9N 97.15W, or about 6 miles south of the US-Mexico border.

If you want, you can contact a moderator and maybe get the fancy "pro met" avatar.

[Aric Dunn]

Hi there. I a meteorologist living on the other side of the world from the US (and far from any tropical activity, to my chagrin), but some of my work relates to hurricanes and typhoons, so I keep a close eye on the tropics.

The two vortex messages from the recon aircraft (23Z and 4Z) gives a motion of 307 degrees (northwest) at 8 mph. (Here is a good site for calculating distance and bearing between two points: http://www.fcc.gov/fcc-bin/distance). Extrapolation using this motion gives a landfall at 25.9N 97.15W, or about 6 miles south of the US-Mexico border.

thats cool thanks

[Pebbles]

Welcome Jconsor! Thanks for the info.. And yeah get yourself one of them fancy met siggies

[funster]

Just south of the border if probably the worst spot for residents of Brownsville, Texas. They will get the worst Dolly has to offer if this is what happens.

[Pebbles]

Pressure down to 980 according to the recon thread

[RL3AO]

New VDM gives us a movement of 320.

[Honeyko]

To state the obvious, those shantytowns on the Mexican side of the border are not "up to code", and therefore extremely vulnerable to TS, let alone hurricane winds.

Given that Dolly's leading eyewall will arrive near diurnal maxima as an intensifying storm, I'd bet that her 850mb winds will mix down to the surface in peak gusts (and those, of course, will do the majority of the damage versus the "official" surface MSW winds).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Complete red ring has developed, expect the eye to start to clear up over the next few hours. I'm tired but will stay up because I expect things to get very interesting later this morning.

[RL3AO]

New dropsonde.

Surface (985mb) : 71kt
976mb: 77
967mb: 75
957mb: 81
910mb: 73
867mb: 72
850mb: 76
698mb: 73

[Hurricaneman13]

I think the system got a little bit stronger now. It's probably nearing Cat 2.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak says Dolly is a Cat 2:

23/0545 UTC 25.4N 96.2W T5.0/5.0 DOLLY

But Recon says no, so far.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dvorak says Dolly is a Cat 2:

23/0545 UTC 25.4N 96.2W T5.0/5.0 DOLLY

But Recon says no, so far.

it might..dropsonde in sw quad. And btw matt, it is in the final stages of clearing out it appears...on visible the a clouded eye is showing through.

[HarlequinBoy]

Dvorak says Dolly is a Cat 2:

23/0545 UTC 25.4N 96.2W T5.0/5.0 DOLLY

But Recon says no, so far.

it might..dropsonde in sw quad. And btw matt, it is in the final stages of clearing out it appears...on visible the a clouded eye is showing through.

Yeah it is, and on IR there's red ring around it. Dolly is a pretty classy looking hurricane on radar as well.

Brownsville is reporting heavy rain now and winds still well below TS strength.

[Normandy]

Just got back from a meeting...

Must say Dolly continues to impress, and I now see no reason why this won't approach major hurricane status....Classic classic radar appearance that keeps getting better, as well as very deep convection surrounding the now ragged eye. i would expect that eye to begin and clear out fairly soon, and Dolly could see significant pressure drops. I would estimate a landfall pressure somewhere in the mid to low 960s.

[paintplaye]

It looks like Galveston is starting to get some rain. Good news for people who need some rain to get the grass wet.

[Cyclenall]

I agree about the red ring on AVN images showing that maybe Dolly will finally open her eye once and for all.

[PTrackerLA]

Dolly's looking pretty wicked on the IR-2 loop now. I think this could be 95mph-100mph at landfall given the current slow movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html