ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stormcenter]

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

I hate to be picky but how can Dolly be along the Texas/Mexico border at midday when she
is already east of Brownsville and moving northwest?

[KWT]

Where is she drawing this energy from for such a rapid pressure drop. The SST's are not high enough for such speedy strengthening. Slow yes, not this fast.

Well SST's are high enough, heat content isn;t amazing but that doesn't matter so much when you've got such stunning upper level conditions, besides for a lower end hurricane the SST's are plenty warm for a system to explode over with such good set-up aloft.

[wxman57]

Avila: "SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY."


It is 1 mph short of being a cat 2...hasn't it already approached cat 2 intensity?

I think officially, the wind must reach 95.49 mph before it can be considered "close to Category two intensity".

[Thunder44]

Yep i agree its nearly at category-2 now hurricanelandfall, only need a higher flight level wind reading in the NE and we will see this upgraded to category-2. As it is 95mph is still a pretty powerful category-1 hurricane.

95mph can't be used for the full advisories. So it will probably be at least 100mph for the 11am advisory. Unless for some reason it shows weakening.

[HarlequinBoy]

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS IN...
SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT MANSFIELD

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 743 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
DOLLY ARE MOVING OVER EASTERN WILLACY AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON
COUNTIES AT 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE RAIN BANDS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF THESE LEVELS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

[ekal]

KBRO 231253Z 31030G48KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW010 SCT025 OVC034 24/23 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 30050/1238 SLP969 P0025 T02440228

30 knots sustained; 48 knot gusts at KBRO. Does anyone have official observations from South Padre Island (i.e. not from backyard weather stations)?

[hurricanefloyd5]

iF IT IS A MISTAKE THEN i WILL COME BACK AND SAY "im sorry" OK!!!

everyone makes mistakes I have no problem with you trying to help floyd5

TYVM

[wxman57]

Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun. I'm measuring 277 deg at 7 mph past hour.

[Texas Snowman]

As for why the intensification has occurred, I believe I've seen JB reference a "tightening of the eye" that often happens to Texas hurricanes (i.e. Hurricane Claudette) due to the shape of the coastline?

[Hyperstorm]

Thunder44, you stole my thinking...

This tells you the NHC expects this to become a Category 2 at 11 am. Probably because they expect the winds in the NE quadrant to reflect Category 2 in a little bit when the plane goes through...

[HarlequinBoy]

Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun.

It looks like Cameron and Willacy Counties will take a direct hit.

[ALhurricane]

Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun.

Very bad news for South Padre.

[HouTXmetro]

Radar indicates that the long-awaited left/west turn has begun.

I agree, and wuth the shaoe of the TX/MX border Dolly will indeed be on both sides of the border.

[TexWx]

My cousin lives in Port Isabel.
She wasn't answering her phone this morning. Finally answered and said it's getting pretty hairy...

I'll give more details when she calls me back.

[Air Force Met]

Avila: "SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY."


It is 1 mph short of being a cat 2...hasn't it already approached cat 2 intensity?

I think officially, the wind must reach 95.49 mph before it can be considered "close to Category two intensity".

I know what they're saying....at 1 mph short of a Cat 2 (allegedly)...it has ALREADY approached cat 2 intensity. A better wording would be "Dolly could REACH category two intensity when it reaches the coast."

[Category 5]

72mph gust in Port Isabel via TWC.

[KWT]

Yep i agree its nearly at category-2 now hurricanelandfall, only need a higher flight level wind reading in the NE and we will see this upgraded to category-2. As it is 95mph is still a pretty powerful category-1 hurricane.

95mph can't be used for the full advisories. So it will probably be at least 100mph for the 11am advisory. Unless for some reason it shows weakening.

Ah yes so it willbe the same strength as Erin then when it came into its 2nd landfall.
Well in that case yep looks like Dolly is going to make it to categroy 2 afteral in about a couple of hours time, should be right on the coast making landfall at that time.

wxman57, yep I agree the high is building back in and yep thats relaly back for SP Island as well as the highly populated region...ps on fox just saw some man on the beach he better get outta there!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like she drank a little Dry air in the N Quads...Lets see if it fills back in...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing the west turn as well

[Thunder44]

Thunder44, you stole my thinking...

This tells you the NHC expects this to become a Category 2 at 11 am. Probably because they expect the winds in the NE quadrant to reflect Category 2 in a little bit when the plane goes through...

12z models just came at about 2 minutes before 9am. They initialized at 80kts. So the only thing I'm certain off it is that it won't be 95mph at 11am.