ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7541 Postby njweather » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:28 am

KWT wrote:
kurtpage wrote:131730 2553N 09646W 6969 02821 9610 +160 +090 222006 009 016 004 03


Pressure=961mb


WOW...no way now down to 961mbs, surely this has got to be a category-2 now! :eek:
Surely too much for the NHC to ignore now. The NHC raised winds just based on pressure last night so they may have to do it again.

Hasve to admit we are sooo lucky that this deosn't have another 9hrs over warm waters!


Exactly. We may have dodged a bullet for a stick with this one.
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#7542 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:28 am

Yep Chacor no wonder there is such a fear of huge flooding, estimates of 8-12 inches is looking pretty reasonable!

Winds seem to be lagging behind the pressure but even so I find it really tough to believe this isn't a category-2 now.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7543 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:30 am

Yes, those are pretty bad rainfall rates.

I'm pretty certain that the wind damage is going to be pretty bad along the coast and even into Brownsville, but I think the real heartbreak of Dolly will be inland flooding. If she slows down and gets tangled up in some of the higher terrain to the SW in Mexico, the flooding could be really bad in northern Mexico and S. Texas.
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#7544 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:30 am

Yep PTrackerLA its really impressive, have to admit didn't think it would deepen by quite this amount last night even though it was obviously deepning pretty rapidly even then.

njweather, yep even though this will come in between 80-90kts and thats still a pretty powerful punch, enough to cause some hefty damage.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7545 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:30 am

I really believe that this is a Strong Cat 2 or Borderline Cat 3
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#7546 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:31 am

KBRO 231325Z 31034G50KT 1/2SM +RA FG BKN009 BKN016 OVC024 24/23 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 31050/1324 P0029

Brownsville/ SPI Intl Airport now reporting sustained TS winds, gusting to 50 kt.
Last edited by Chacor on Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7547 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:32 am

I woke up this morning and saw Dolly 'peeking.' This is going to be pretty bad, unfortunately. :( A hurricane strengthening at landfall, plus forecast to stall out bringing copious amounts of rain. Prayers to everyone in this thing's path.

P.S. She's going to make landfall right on South Padre Island.
Last edited by LAwxrgal on Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7548 Postby loro-rojo » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:33 am

The lastest NWS Brownsville radar image is unavailable. Could the doppler radar now be damanged?
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7549 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:34 am

URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 83 KT N QUAD 13:23:00 Z
SMALL BREAKS IN EYEWALL S SIDE
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7550 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:34 am

loro-rojo wrote:The lastest NWS Brownsville radar image is unavailable. Could the doppler radar now be damanged?


The latest report from the airport there is only 34 kts sustained, so it's probably just a technical fault.
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#7551 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:34 am

Very impressive wind gusts Chacor given how far inland they are and the fact that the hurricane is still a good little bit offshore.

Weatherfreak14, well pressure suggests that but the winds are still trying to catch up with the pressure, just hope it doesn't actualy catch up and it reaches land before that can happen.
Last edited by KWT on Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7552 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:36 am

Is the eastern eyewall decaying?
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Re:

#7553 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:37 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:Is the eastern eyewall decaying?

I was about to post the same, radar indicates breaks in eyewall as well as some dry air entraining. Pressure continues to drop however. Maybe land intervention at this point.
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#7554 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:38 am

That latest VDM centre is approximately 40-50 miles east of Brownsville.
Last edited by Chacor on Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7555 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:38 am

loro-rojo wrote:The lastest NWS Brownsville radar image is unavailable. Could the doppler radar now be damanged?



This looks like it's working.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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#7556 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:38 am

Hmm I don't think so HarlequinBoy but the eyewall is said to be showing some small breaks on the southern side now, hardly surprising givens its so close to land now to be honest.
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#7557 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:39 am

Well, thank heaven she's running out of time... another 6 or 7 hours over water and she would be a bona fide beast. :( As it is, she's gonna be pretty bad.
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Re: Re:

#7558 Postby Category 5 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:40 am

Lowpressure wrote:
HarlequinBoy wrote:Is the eastern eyewall decaying?

I was about to post the same, radar indicates breaks in eyewall as well as some dry air entraining. Pressure continues to drop however. Maybe land intervention at this point.


No dry air on WV.
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#7559 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:40 am

Yep Chacor getting very close to land as well now, probably got another 90-120 mins over water before landfall so Dolly probably won't strengthen any further from now.
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#7560 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:41 am

Oh well, it's probably a moot point anyway. The western eyewall is holding strong and will come onshore first.
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