ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah possibly DESTRUCTION5 though with the system the way it is already it probably won't make a huge difference, there is still some pretty explosive convection present.

ALhurricane, thats pretty amazing I wonder whether that will push the NHC into upgrading this to a category-2?

Reminds me of Katrina with her landfall in FL...SW Quad was all business....North of it was a breeze..

[LAwxrgal]

Well she is about to come in and she's feeling the effect of the land, cutting off some of her circulation.

[Category 5]

Is this thanks to the cold eddy right off the coast? I really hope so. (About eyewall breaking up.)

There was a dropoff in heat content near the coast, a significant one.

[Air Force Met]

Is this thanks to the cold eddy right off the coast? I really hope so. (About eyewall breaking up.)

No...its sucking in dry air off the continent.

[KWT]

Wow HarlequinBoy Dolly still looks the buisness even though its so close to landfall, if you saw that for the first time you'd think Dolly was a high end cat-2 rather than 1.

[gatorcane]

Yeah possibly DESTRUCTION5 though with the system the way it is already it probably won't make a huge difference, there is still some pretty explosive convection present.

ALhurricane, thats pretty amazing I wonder whether that will push the NHC into upgrading this to a category-2?

Reminds me of Katrina with her landfall in FL...SW Quad was all business....North of it was a breeze..

Yes its a sign the ridge above Dolly is starting to build southward which will push Dolly inland soon.

[Texas Snowman]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

[Chacor]

WTNT54 KNHC 231350
TCEAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
900 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 9 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[LAwxrgal]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

Kudos to the NHC, had her pretty much nailed. Looks like she's going in at South Padre Island as a Cat 2.

[KWT]

Yep AFM dry air coming off from the land to the west, happens al lthe time when TC's get close to land and are slow moving.

[Air Force Met]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like the weakness should be short lasting. Based on radar there is a large band wrapping up the the east side just outside the eyewall.

[Category 5]

Position estimates show this thing has NOT MOVED in the last hour.

[Sanibel]

Some were saying Dolly reached its peak last night at 977. I was trying to tell them the eye structure was signaling possible intensification with the dirty eye having intensification jerks from convection invading it. Slow steady intensification.

Dolly at a creep west now and grinding down on Brownsville. Cantore has a fun one to report. Poor people in trailers don't.

Dry area on north side.

[Chacor]

WTNT54 KNHC 231350
TCEAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
900 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

AT 9 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

And one hour ago:
AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

Which means the storm has apparently stalled.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I just pray we don't have people coming out in the EYE of dolly and stay out in the eye when the 2nd half comes on by!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Yep cheezyWXguy that was always quite likely given the ssytem has deepened so much over the last few hours its going to try and keep strengthening till the very end I rekcon despite the mid level dry air coming off from the land.

[kurtpage]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Amen....

Do you see this being upgraded to a Cat 2?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Sure did...Had landfall at least 5 days out...At least GFS,EURO and GFDL....

[Smurfwicked]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Right, the NHC goes by the best agreement of the models for their probability cone, correct?