ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HarlequinBoy]

She is barely creeping along...if at all.

[mutley]

Position estimates show this thing has NOT MOVED in the last hour.

At the rate she's crawling toward the shore, Dolly could have 3 or 4 more hours over water.

[KWT]

Yep models nailed this thing, the GFDL also did a good job on strength progging a high level cat-1/low end cat-2 when it was still an invest.

Chacor, well it may not have stalled just that it hasn't moved quickly enough to cross any latitude/longitude...still probably only moving 2-3mph now, models did expect this to occur.

Breaking news----collapsed roof in South Pardre island...

[HURAKAN]

And Dolly did a great job herself. Talk about perseverance!

[Air Force Met]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Amen....

Do you see this being upgraded to a Cat 2?

Should have already been upgraded to a cat 2.

[Sanibel]

NHC probably had a solid synoptic under which Dolly rode.

Slow motion will probably increase the damage effect on poorly built structures in Brownsville.

[Texas Snowman]

Barring a stall or a sudden change in course, it looks like SPI is going to get kicked in the teeth by a direct hit from Dolly. Tons of development on the southern tip of the island since the last major 'cane through there.

Since Dolly has Cat 3 like pressure, I'd bet the wind will catch up somewhat as she makes landfall due to its lumbering pace to the coast.

As it is, there is going to be pretty big wind damage at SPI, Port Isabel, etc. and maybe into Brownsville too.

Then look out for the flooding inland.

I hope RGV residents are hunkered down, they are in for a long, long day I'm afraid.

[kurtpage]

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Amen....

Do you see this being upgraded to a Cat 2?

Should have already been upgraded to a cat 2.

I thought so as well...just wanted a professional opinion! Thanks!

[Air Force Met]

Gatorcane,

Agreed, NHC did an absolutely superb job on the track of Dolly.

The MODELS did a great job on Dolly.

Right, the NHC goes by the best agreement of the models for their probability cone, correct?

Incorrect. The error cone is simply 2/3 the historical track error. That means that 1/3 of the time the track will fall outside the error cone.

[Sanibel]

Low category with punch. However Cantore didn't look too bad on TWC. Let the eye get closer.

[Stormcenter]

She is barely creeping along...if at all.

Well for now at least I would say she has stalled. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[zaqxsw75050]

It looks like the northern eyewall had opened up on radar.

[HarlequinBoy]

Low category with punch. However Cantore didn't look too bad on TWC. Let the eye get closer.

He looked quite a bit worse earlier, must be a lull.

[Chacor]

WWUS84 KBRO 231403
SPSBRO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
903 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

TXZ254>257-231615-
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
903 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMMINENT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE EYE OF POWERFUL
HURRICANE DOLLY APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT
LEAST 75 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS UP TO 95 MILES PER HOUR...ARE
LIKELY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE
WHEN THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY MOVES ONSHORE...AS DAMAGED TREES
...POWERLINES...AND BUILDINGS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE OUTDOORS.

$$

TOMASELLI

[Chacor]

KBRO 231353Z 31035G52KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR BKN011 BKN028 OVC036 24/23 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 31052/1353 SLP965 P0049 T02390228

35 kts gusting 52 kts from 310 deg at Brownsville/SPI Intl.

[Texas Snowman]

Agree, this should be (and in my unofficial opinion, it already is) a Cat 2.

In fact, given the storm's pressure and slow movement to the coast, it wouldn't surprise me if winds eventually approach low end Cat 3 threshold.

Didn't say that will happen, only that it wouldn't surprise me given the pressure, which is incredibly impressive for what is still "technically" a Cat 1 storm.

Haven't heard much talk about storm surge - thoughts on potential storm surge issues for SPI and Port Isabel?

[MWatkins]

Brownsville radar might be having trouble getting all the way through those dense bands near the core. The opening is apparent from the Corpus long range...but they are getting a pretty good band on them as well.

Hopefully this has leveled off for now.

Note: If this were Miami the MIA (or now MFL) radar would have been down for 10 hours already. Props to NWS Brownsville for keeping the radar operational...

MW

[KWT]

And Dolly did a great job herself. Talk about perseverance!

Yep very interesting to see 94L that so many thought it was doomed but here it is as a hurricane!

I agree with AFM this really should have been upgraded to categoy-2 esp given the pressure and the radar returns we have seen.

Really is crawling now though its close enough to the shore to still be inland in a few hours anyway.

[MiamiensisWx]

Old VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 92 KT N QUAD 12:08:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY

Would a flight level reading of 92 kt support 85 kt at the surface?

[HURAKAN]