ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Eye doesn't look quite as impressive Hurakan but thats to be expected given how close it is to land at the preset moment.

Texas Snowman, yep pressure certainly is more akin to a high end category-2 rather then a high end cat-1.

[Chacor]

WWUS84 KBRO 231403
SPSBRO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
903 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

TXZ254>257-231615-
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...
HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
903 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMMINENT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE EYE OF POWERFUL
HURRICANE DOLLY APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF AT
LEAST 75 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS UP TO 95 MILES PER HOUR...ARE
LIKELY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE
WHEN THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY MOVES ONSHORE...AS DAMAGED TREES
...POWERLINES...AND BUILDINGS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE OUTDOORS.

$$

TOMASELLI

In case it got lost on the previous page.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to this image, the maximum sustained winds are 100mph (Cat. 2). Is this correct?

[CrazyC83]

Old VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 92 KT N QUAD 12:08:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY

Would a flight level reading of 92 kt support 85 kt at the surface?

Supports 83 kt, but given the pressure I would go 85 kt.

[Sanibel]

Have to be careful with intensity speculation. Last year people were hyping that all the towns where Dean went in were being ripped from their foundations and flung through the air. Afterwards the storm assessment wasn't as bad as that. Now is where Dolly will tap out its SST source.

[KWT]

Ah yes Extremeweatherguy!
does that mean they are going to upgrade it for the next advisory then?

[Chacor]

The advisory says 95 mph, but the graphic says 100 mph. I'd take the advisory text over the graphic, myself.

[Texas Snowman]

Whoa, that Dvorak image is amazing in appearance - impressive looking storm.

Dolly's punch is going to be pretty bad I'm afraid. Wonder if it will get into the Beulah category?

[Chacor]

Ah yes Extremeweatherguy!
does that mean they are going to upgrade it for the next advisory then?

No it doesn't. That graphic was to accompany the previous interim adv which said 95 mph.

[Texas Snowman]

KWT,

What is the increase in damage potential from high end 1 to high end 2?

[KWT]

Old VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 92 KT N QUAD 12:08:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY

Would a flight level reading of 92 kt support 85 kt at the surface?

Well its close, you could go either way with that, tobe honest though wit hthe pressure as well as radar suggestive of a stronger storm I'd go with 85kts rather then 80kts but heck who knows!

[jasons2k]

[Chacor]

The estimates are near 6.0 or cat 4 intensity...maybe the winds will increase and pressure continue falling.

I'd suggest avoid relying on Dvorak analyses (based solely on imagery) when we have recon data.

[CrazyC83]

The estimates are near 6.0 or cat 4 intensity...maybe the winds will increase and pressure continue falling.

We're lucky that Dolly doesn't have another 12 hours in the water or she would likely get that strong.

[HURAKAN]

Now we know it was a good thing the LLC didn't form the night before.

[jasons2k]

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wftv.com/video/16964050/inde ... orlc_break

try this this is from my local tv station here in orlando florida!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sanibel]

That dry slot will keep any further intensification from happening, in my opinion.

[cpdaman]

they always say front right quadrant is the worst (i know it is for surge) but i thought they say for winds as well, and my guess is if the eye appearance maintains the strongest echoes SW along the eye wall, these areas should get the highest winds, correct?

[KWT]

Yeah I do agree Chacor though recon isn't going into the NE quadrant where there could be higher winds.

Still I agree it is a good job that this doesn't have another 12hrs overland, T numbers may well be quite close to what would have happened IMO.