ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MiamiensisWx]

Brownsville radar might be having trouble getting all the way through those dense bands near the core. The opening is apparent from the Corpus long range...but they are getting a pretty good band on them as well.

Hopefully this has leveled off for now.

Note: If this were Miami the MIA (or now MFL) radar would have been down for 10 hours already. Props to NWS Brownsville for keeping the radar operational...

MW

I believe Dolly has already surpassed its peak intensity, which likely occurred around the time of the 8 a.m. CST advisory (or slightly before its release). A VDM indicated a minimum central pressure of ~964 mb after the advisory arrived, and the northern eyewall was still intact. I suspect that Dolly is clearly entraining dry low level air from the inland areas of Mexico and S Texas, which also occurred with Allen 1980, Emily 2005 (?), and other Texas TCs. As the TC appears to have stalled, more gradual weakening may occur prior to landfall. The winds at the surface have already dropped off slightly, in my view.

Sanibel, the fact is that Dean primarily impacted a rural area, and you apparently haven't seen Dean's impact on Mahahual.

Dolly is still a significant issue with the heavy precip and Cat 1 winds, though a weakening system is better than a deepening one. A weakening system may not bring the hurricane force winds/strong TS winds to locations further inland; however, in the area along the immediate coast, the impact remains identical. Cat 1 winds can certainly impact frail structures significantly.

[Frank2]

It's moving s-l-o-w-l-y westward, per the radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if you look at the "e" in Brownsville, the west edge of the ragged eyewall can be seeing moving slowly towards the coast...

[ronjon]

The GFDL pretty much nailed this storm - I can see why the NHC puts so much faith in the model - the newer HWRF, still doesn't seem to be as good as it had a poorer solution for Bertha and Dolly.

[MiamiensisWx]

Brownsville radar might be having trouble getting all the way through those dense bands near the core. The opening is apparent from the Corpus long range...but they are getting a pretty good band on them as well.

Hopefully this has leveled off for now.

Note: If this were Miami the MIA (or now MFL) radar would have been down for 10 hours already. Props to NWS Brownsville for keeping the radar operational...

MW

I believe Dolly has already surpassed its peak intensity, which likely occurred around the time of the 8 a.m. CST advisory (or slightly before its release). A VDM indicated a minimum central pressure of ~964 mb after the advisory arrived, and the northern eyewall was still intact. I suspect that Dolly is clearly entraining dry low level air from the inland areas of Mexico and S Texas, which also occurred with Allen 1980 and other Texas TCs. As the TC appears to have stalled, more gradual weakening may occur prior to landfall. The winds at the surface have already dropped off slightly, in my view.

Sanibel, the fact is that Dean primarily impacted a rural area, and you apparently haven't seen Dean's impact on Mahahual.

Dolly is still a significant issue with the heavy precip and Cat 1 winds, though a weakening system is better than a deepening one. A weakening system may not bring the hurricane force winds/strong TS winds to locations further inland; however, in the area along the immediate coast, the impact remains identical. Cat 1 winds can certainly impact frail structures significantly.

I think Dolly is weakening now, personally.

Cloud tops are warming as well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[cheezyWXguy]

well based on the latest radar image, it looks like the northern eyewall has just filled back in with a narrow band, and I expect this band to get thicker. If this still has 2-3 hours over water, then this could be a problem.

[KWT]

That dry slot will keep any further intensification from happening, in my opinion.

To a certain extent I do agree however with sucha low pressure compared to the winds I'd expect winds would still slowly increase even though at this point it should relaly jsut be holding steady as there is some midlevel dry air and lower SST's near the coast.

MiamiensisWx, yep category-1 winds can still be pretty powerful, indeed these winds are pretty much cat-2 in terms of damage thats likely. Indeed we've already got a collapsed roof.

[Stormcenter]

It's moving s-l-o-w-l-y westward, per the radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if you look at the "e" in Brownsville, the west edge of the ragged eyewall can be seeing moving slowly towards the coast...

It is very hard to tell but I could probably walk faster then it's moving right now...if in fact it is moving at all. IMO

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe Dolly has already surpassed its peak intensity, which likely occurred around the time of the 8 a.m. CST advisory (or slightly before its release). A VDM indicated a minimum central pressure of ~964 mb after the advisory arrived, and the northern eyewall was still intact. I suspect that Dolly is clearly entraining dry low level air from the inland areas of Mexico and S Texas, which also occurred with Allen 1980 and other Texas TCs. As the TC appears to have stalled, more gradual weakening may occur prior to landfall.

look at the radar again....the eyewall is now closing off completely again.

Check your premises:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

I don't see it.

[cpdaman]

reminds me of frances in 04 (FL) the thing was going 2 mph for like a day

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, the fact is that Dean primarily impacted a rural area, and you apparently haven't seen Dean's impact on Mahahual.

Of course Majahual was wrecked because it was a flimsy village in the eyewall of a category 5. But some were saying Chetumal was being wrecked when it wasn't that bad there.

[HarlequinBoy]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PETRONILA...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI...MOVING WEST AT 28 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DRISCOLL BY 935 AM CDT...

[Chacor]

The latest set of recon HDOBs show a min extrap pres of 964.7 hPa, with max SFMR of 71 kts.

[cheezyWXguy]

I believe Dolly has already surpassed its peak intensity, which likely occurred around the time of the 8 a.m. CST advisory (or slightly before its release). A VDM indicated a minimum central pressure of ~964 mb after the advisory arrived, and the northern eyewall was still intact. I suspect that Dolly is clearly entraining dry low level air from the inland areas of Mexico and S Texas, which also occurred with Allen 1980 and other Texas TCs. As the TC appears to have stalled, more gradual weakening may occur prior to landfall.

look at the radar again....the eyewall is now closing off completely again.

Check your premises:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

I don't see it.

I see it. Its not yellow, but its green again, as opposed to being completely open. Try a closer radar.

[cpdaman]

I believe Dolly has already surpassed its peak intensity, which likely occurred around the time of the 8 a.m. CST advisory (or slightly before its release). A VDM indicated a minimum central pressure of ~964 mb after the advisory arrived, and the northern eyewall was still intact. I suspect that Dolly is clearly entraining dry low level air from the inland areas of Mexico and S Texas, which also occurred with Allen 1980 and other Texas TCs. As the TC appears to have stalled, more gradual weakening may occur prior to landfall.

look at the radar again....the eyewall is now closing off completely again.

Check your premises:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

I don't see it.

wait till the next frame, that links seems 10 min behind

[drezee]

heights are rising per recon...shelf water and dry air...

[HouTXmetro]

The GFDL pretty much nailed this storm - I can see why the NHC puts so much faith in the model - the newer HWRF, still doesn't seem to be as good as it had a poorer solution for Bertha and Dolly.

The GFDL had landfall in New Orleans then Houston. I don't think it performed that great. It was just as wrong with Dean last year. The only credit I give the GFDL with Dolly is the track over the extreme NE Yucatan.

[MiamiensisWx]

Sanibel, the fact is that Dean primarily impacted a rural area, and you apparently haven't seen Dean's impact on Mahahual.

Of course Majahual was wrecked because it was a flimsy village in the eyewall of a category 5. But some were saying Chetumal was being wrecked when it wasn't that bad there.

Chetumal was south of the southern eyewall, unlike Mahahual.

In regards to Dolly's intensity, the rising heights support my "weakening" views. Is the SFMR recording lower winds than earlier, Chacor?

[KWT]

The eyewall isn't totally iopening up but it does seem like the eyewall is in the process of opening up right now I have to admit, just a matter of time befreo it does but thats to be expected as it reaches right upto the coast.

In terms of structure and pressure this probably has peaked now.

[HarlequinBoy]

Check your premises:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

I don't see it.

I see it. Its not yellow, but its green again, as opposed to being completely open. Try a closer radar.

I see what cheezy sees. I don't think it's intensifying anymore, but it certainly isn't falling apart.

[MWatkins]

Latest VDM at 965MB but is an hour old...looks like the eye is getting more circular on Brownsville radar...and the returns from those bands near the core on the SW side are intense.

Wish this thing would just come in already. Looks like we have another 2 hours or so.

MW