ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[bostonseminole]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2008 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 25:57:16 N Lon : 96:48:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Sanibel, the fact is that Dean primarily impacted a rural area, and you apparently haven't seen Dean's impact on Mahahual.

Of course Majahual was wrecked because it was a flimsy village in the eyewall of a category 5. But some were saying Chetumal was being wrecked when it wasn't that bad there.

Chetumal was south of the southern eyewall, unlike Mahahual.

In regards to Dolly's intensity, the rising heights support my "weakening" views. Is the SFMR recording lower winds than earlier, Chacor?

71 kts max in the last set.

[Sanibel]

The GFDL had landfall in New Orleans then Houston. I don't think it performed that great.

What GFDL is showing there is that it is an accurate reader of fluid synoptics in motion. It's reading the current real time steering features and translating them.

[Stormcenter]

The GFDL pretty much nailed this storm - I can see why the NHC puts so much faith in the model - the newer HWRF, still doesn't seem to be as good as it had a poorer solution for Bertha and Dolly.

The GFDL had landfall in New Orleans then Houston. I don't think it performed that great. It was just as wrong with Dean last year. The only credit I give the GFDL with Dolly is the track over the extreme NE Yucatan.

I agree the GDFL did not nail it.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2008 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 25:57:16 N Lon : 96:48:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Means nothing when Recon is out there.

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

If she was out alittle farther from land I'd think she was going through an EWR .

[Sanibel]

Wise storm watchers will learn GFDL's tendencies and learn to interpolate them.

[Stormcenter]

Latest VDM at 965MB but is an hour old...looks like the eye is getting more circular on Brownsville radar...and the returns from those bands near the core on the SW side are intense.

Wish this thing would just come in already. Looks like we have another 2 hours or so.

MW

Two hours might be a little bit optimistic based on what I'm seeing on radar.

[HarlequinBoy]

Whoa, check out the estimated 1 hour rain total... 4 inches in the SW eye. It is a good thing this is over water.

[KWT]

Well you can see the effects of the dry air and cooler shelf waters Hurakan. Still its got a really good shape still. CrazyC83 yep means nothing but it is interesting at least!

[MiamiensisWx]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Radar shows deteriorating precip, which is indicative of low level dry air on north side.

I was going to mention NW movement (N jog?) on BRO radar as well.

[cpdaman]

seems like a tornado warning went up somewhere to the SW of corpos for a little cell in a band, http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

man corpus is getting drenched

[ronjon]

Ah, Houston, check the GFDL runs the last 48 hours (8 total) - can't get more consistent than that and spot on. Looks like a slow drift to the north now from BRO RAD.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

Wise storm watchers will learn GFDL's tendencies and learn to interpolate them.

I'm not sure about tendencies but I do know it showed a N.O. then Houston then Mexico landfall before joining the other models.

[jasons2k]

If she was out alittle farther from land I'd think she was going through an EWR .

It does look like the eye is now trying to close-up to me. I don't think it's weakening yet.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ah, Houston, check the GFDL runs the last 48 hours (8 total) - can't get more consistent than that and spot on. Looks like a slow drift to the north now from BRO RAD.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like she don't want to go inland...Prob just getting ready to be handed off to the ridge...

[jasons2k]

We can discuss the models' performance later guys - back to Dolly please.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure about tendencies but I do know it showed a N.O. then Houston then Mexico landfall before joining the other models.

Which was probably GFDL tracking a steering ridge in real time as it moved west and over Dolly.

[Stormcenter]

I'm just reporting what I'm seeing here so don't flame the messenger but a northward jog is very evident in this loop. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes