ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

tolakram, movement is very slow now its clearly only going to crawl over shore...I have a real bad feeling about the types of rains we are going to see with this hurricane.

Thats really interesting Derek why would that occur though, friction with land?

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be making trochoidal wobbles

next one should be west and bring the eyewall onshore

[HarlequinBoy]

New tornado watch up...

[HarlequinBoy]

Look out Corpus.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 934 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST EAST OF
INGLESIDE...MOVING WEST AT 36 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PORTLAND BY 950 AM CDT...
CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH BY 955 AM CDT...
DOWNTOWN CORPUS CHRISTI...COLE PARK BY 1000 AM CDT...
CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY 1010 AM CDT...

[Buck]

Good thing this one was moving fast at first and didn't have more time in the gulf... the pressure has dropped quite fast this morning!

[Derek Ortt]

I believe he said it was land friction that is responsible

[KWT]

Yeah in some ways Derek I just wish this would get onland and end all the teasing just offshore so we can hurry up and weaken this hurricane because as long as it can keep over the water its going to at least hold steady and just continue to dump those heavy rains.

[tailgater]

Looking at this Sat. loop (WV) the ULL to it's west might give it a nudge to the north beifly but should return to mostly west with ridge to NW taking over steering currents. IMHO
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... cal/24.jpg

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 940 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 105 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 35 MILES
NORTH OF VICTORIA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 732. WATCH NUMBER 732 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
940 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY FCST BY NHC TO MOVE INLAND
AND ACROSS LOWER VALLEY REGION OF DEEP S TX. TORNADO PROBABILITIES
WILL INCREASE WITH OUTWARD EXTENT FROM CORE REGION INTO AREA OF GALE
WINDS...N THROUGH NE OF CENTER. THIS TREND WILL RESULT FROM
COMBINATION OF MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC GEOMETRY...0-1 KM
SHEAR...AND INCREASING CAPE FROM POCKETS OF STRONGER SFC HEATING IN
OUTER PARTS OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 10045.


...EDWARDS/HALES

[Chacor]

NWUS54 KBRO 231451
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
951 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 AM HURRICANE 1 E BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.47W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

ROOF OF MOBILE HOME BLOWN OFF. BROWNSVILLE ASOS REPORTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AT TIME OF REPORT.


&&

$$

HART

[MiamiensisWx]

Don't focus on the center or winds; TCs bring many other threats!

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PORTLAND BY 950 AM CDT...
CORPUS CHRISTI NORTH BEACH BY 955 AM CDT...
DOWNTOWN CORPUS CHRISTI...COLE PARK BY 1000 AM CDT...
CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY 1010 AM CDT...

[dizzyfish]

Have you looked at the rainfall (storm total) estimation? I'm seeing 11-14" just off the coast.

[wxmann_91]

Thats really interesting Derek why would that occur though, friction with land?

Yes, and I think it occurs more often than not. Basically moving air on land is slowed by friction while moving air on water is not, so the air piles up... converges... along the coast. This might have happened with Katrina. During Humberto this actually focused convergence and probably led to the rapid formation its eyewall. Basically I have observed that this helps weak storms by consolidating their inner cores and possibly leading to pseudo-eyewall formation, while hurting strong, relatively steady state storms by initiating a formation of an outer eyewall.

[Chacor]

METAR KHRL 231452Z 32034G44KT 9SM -RA BKN013 BKN028 OVC036 24/22
A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 34046/1425 SLP999 P0009 60041 T02390222 58027

[Pebbles]

That would probably be a good thing as it would keep the entire Rio Grande Valley out of the eyewall.

Have to see.. I'm saying it's about to wobble north.. Derek says it's about wobble west and landfalling. Now most smart people would lay money on the Met being right (I know I would if I were them!) He definately knows the physics and all that much better then I do. I am always respectful of the ones with the 'real' knowlege. (note it isn't me LOL)

[Rincon]

Brownsville Public Library up online with their Weather Station and 3-5 second updates.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=25.941%2C-97.508

[Ed Mahmoud]

Houston North suburbs - Beautiful multi-layer overcast this morning, with bright orange patches were the sunrise was illuminating the cirrus. Almost looked like there was mammatus on the underside of the heavy rain shower/thunderhead that had just passed. Thunderstorm type cell, but no lightning/thunder.


Both CRP and BRO radar show Northern eyewall weakening. I would expect dry air entrainment to effect the South side more, unless it is wrapping all the way around. Could also be cool near shore water upwelling, I suppose.

[HarlequinBoy]

Have you looked at the rainfall (storm total) estimation? I'm seeing 11-14" just off the coast.

Yeah, and most of that right off the coast fell over the last two hours or so.

Dolly's southern half is really nasty.

[Sanibel]

I noticed the intensification jerks, or trochoidal wobbles (best seen on IR loop) too. Like "HURAKAN" said, if this developed earlier over warm waters it probably would have boomed.

[gatorcane]

I'm seeing a wobble nearly North. The wobble west to put it inland should happen anytime now:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif