ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[hurricanefloyd5]

they WC retracked the report of roof damage it was a sign I think was down if im not mistaken!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chacor]

...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

[Buck]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL
OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

[Smurfwicked]

Since the pressure is more so of that of a stronger hurricane and the winds are apparently not going to catch up to that, does this mean it'll likely stay stronger longer after landfall than if had a pressure that reflects more its current wind velocity?

[Rincon]

CNN now says CAt 2...

[mattpetre]

Houston North suburbs - Beautiful multi-layer overcast this morning, with bright orange patches were the sunrise was illuminating the cirrus. Almost looked like there was mammatus on the underside of the heavy rain shower/thunderhead that had just passed. Thunderstorm type cell, but no lightning/thunder.


Both CRP and BRO radar show Northern eyewall weakening. I would expect dry air entrainment to effect the South side more, unless it is wrapping all the way around. Could also be cool near shore water upwelling, I suppose.

SW Suburbs (Sugarland) we had some of the same multi-layer clouds, but we also had much lightning and thunder with the storms that passed through our area. Hoping we can get a little more rain out of this system up our way before it heads west. Also hoping that eye continues just a little further N before it goes onshore (just to put as many people out of harms way as possible. Good luck to all.

[Chacor]

DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

[tailgater]

...DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS...EYE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

[Frank2]

If the NHC forecast track comes true, then, the good news is that the eye will cross the coast well north of Brownsville, over mostly rural areas...

[gatorcane]

DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

Could Dolly end up as a CAT 3 based on this?

My forecast was a mid CAT 2 yesterday and indeed that may verify.

[Stormcenter]

I'm seeing a wobble nearly North. The wobble west to put it inland should happen anytime now:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I hate to say this but it's not happening (wobble west) just yet. I would say it's drifting NNW. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Chacor]

[Evac3]

Jim just said 100 mph Cat 2.. moving 7 mph? I dunno.

[gatorcane]

one thing is pretty certain, looks like Dolly will go down in the books as making landfall in the U.S and not Mexico.

[Chacor]

one thing is pretty certain, looks like Dolly will go down in the books as making landfall in the U.S and not Mexico.

Unless it takes a sudden hard south-southwest turn, that's almost a done deal.

[Category 5]

[HarlequinBoy]

Cloud tops cooling in the south again.

[Mecklenburg]

DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

Could Dolly end up as a CAT 3 based on this?

My forecast was a mid CAT 2 yesterday and indeed that may verify.

i don't think so... landfall is imminent...

[PTrackerLA]

Some additional strengthening...sheesh!

[Chacor]

It needs another 15 knots to reach Cat 3. I don't think the winds have enough time to catch up before landfall.