ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Texas Snowman]

Actually, it looks to me on the last radar frame that the northerly component has stopped and it's either stationary or moving slowly west right at SPI.

[Sanibel]

If the pressure is still dropping then this will be a slow grinder with punch.

[CrazyC83]

Last data showed winds around 70 kt - on the southern side which should be the weakest.

[gatorcane]

I actually see a slight wobble NNE in the last frame but basically she seems stationary. What do you think?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HarlequinBoy]

The pressure is still dropping..

What is it down to?

[srainhoutx]

I am some what concerned that locally we may have some issues of our own to deal with concerning Dolly. Areas S of I-10 may have some training of storms this afternoon as an area of very deep moisture surges N from the GOM. Radar trends show a very strong area S of High Island slowly approaching the coast. Heavy rainfall extends further E into LA coastal areas and this will migrate WNW as well. Areas to the N of I-10 could also see very heavy rainfall with daytime heating to aid in storm development. My thoughts are with those in the Lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. I expect serious problems for our neighbors to the SW with this very slow moving system. The Matagorda Bay area NE is beginning to look a bit ominous as well...

Regional Radar

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southpla ... e_loop.php

IR SAT Loop

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... 4_loop.php

[jabman98]

Wow, she's a slow mover. Gonna be a long day for S. Texas. Longer periods of sustained wind and more rain. Sheesh.

[CrazyC83]

The pressure is still dropping..

What is it down to?

Extrapolated 962mb.

[carversteve]

Just wondering the chances of this continuing the nnw movement for awhile? Is the ridge that strong to where it will influence her or might she do her own thing?? Just a question from a curious weather lover!!

[gatorcane]

Just wondering the chances of this continuing the nnw movement for awhile? Is the ridge that strong to where it will influence her or might she do her own thing?? Just a question from a curious weather lover!!

well if you look at the link I posted above I see a slight NNE wobble believe it or not...no sign of a W movement yet.

[kurtpage]

The pressure is still dropping..

What is it down to?

152700 2607N 09653W 6967 02844 9620 +170 +090 065006 009 000 004 00


Pressure at 962

[tallywx]

So I think there will be significant wind damage at SPI, Arroyo City, Port Isabel, and maybe as far north as Port Mansfield.

Luckily, it doesn't look like there's much of anything in Arroyo City and Port Mansfield just looking at google earth imagery. Maybe a couple dozen homes in each village. Put another way, it would be like an F1 tornado going through a village with a population of 400...which happens all the time. Unfortunate? Yes. An event out of the ordinary? No.

[jabman98]

I am some what concerned that locally we may have some issues of our own to deal with concerning Dolly. Areas S of I-10 may have some training of storms this afternoon as an area of very deep moisture surges N from the GOM. Radar trends show a very strong area S of High Island slowly approaching the coast. Heavy rainfall extends further E into LA coastal areas and this will migrate WNW as well. Areas to the N of I-10 could also see very heavy rainfall with daytime heating to aid in storm development. My thoughts are with those in the Lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. I expect serious problems for our neighbors to the SW with this very slow moving system. The Matagorda Bay area NE is beginning to look a bit ominous as well...

Yeah, they extended one of the watches to whichever county is directly south of Houston/Harris County. I saw it on the local news, but sorry can't remember if it was flooding or wind. Think it was flooding. I think we could get a bit more rain from this in the southern Houston counties than they thought at first.

[Texas Snowman]

Gatorcane,

I see what you're talking about on that loop, but it doesn't seem to show on the radar presentation.

One of the more amazing storms I've watched.

[cheezyWXguy]

hahahaha has anyone seen this picture?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
look at the date...december 2069?

[Chacor]

ob KBRO 231527Z 29032G56KT 1SM +RA BR FEW009 BKN013 OVC025 24/23 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 29056/1521 P0009
ob KHRL 231540Z 32037G48KT 1SM RA BR SCT007 BKN012 OVC016 24/23 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 32048/1534 P0043

[HarlequinBoy]

I am some what concerned that locally we may have some issues of our own to deal with concerning Dolly. Areas S of I-10 may have some training of storms this afternoon as an area of very deep moisture surges N from the GOM. Radar trends show a very strong area S of High Island slowly approaching the coast. Heavy rainfall extends further E into LA coastal areas and this will migrate WNW as well. Areas to the N of I-10 could also see very heavy rainfall with daytime heating to aid in storm development. My thoughts are with those in the Lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. I expect serious problems for our neighbors to the SW with this very slow moving system. The Matagorda Bay area NE is beginning to look a bit ominous as well...

Yeah, they extended one of the watches to whichever county is directly south of Houston/Harris County. I saw it on the local news, but sorry can't remember if it was flooding or wind. Think it was flooding. I think we could get a bit more rain from this in the southern Houston counties than they thought at first.

I think it was a tornado watch.

[Sanibel]

Slow NW movement still. You're seeing preshore spasms.

[HouTXmetro]

I am some what concerned that locally we may have some issues of our own to deal with concerning Dolly. Areas S of I-10 may have some training of storms this afternoon as an area of very deep moisture surges N from the GOM. Radar trends show a very strong area S of High Island slowly approaching the coast. Heavy rainfall extends further E into LA coastal areas and this will migrate WNW as well. Areas to the N of I-10 could also see very heavy rainfall with daytime heating to aid in storm development. My thoughts are with those in the Lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. I expect serious problems for our neighbors to the SW with this very slow moving system. The Matagorda Bay area NE is beginning to look a bit ominous as well...

Yeah, they extended one of the watches to whichever county is directly south of Houston/Harris County. I saw it on the local news, but sorry can't remember if it was flooding or wind. Think it was flooding. I think we could get a bit more rain from this in the southern Houston counties than they thought at first.

Those storms are weakining as I type. We should be ok

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[tallywx]

I don't think it is. Usually you would see an outer eyewall forming and the inner eyewall slowly diminishing. What I see, is an eye that got slightly clouded over.

radar shows a double eyewall...I had never seen an EWRC in a cat 1 before this one...I have also never seen an EWRC appear so rapidly before during rapid intensifaction...so fast in fact that is caused the wind field to expand instead of allowing the winds to increase.

I think it's more dry air entrainment than an EWRC, both of which cause "flattening out" of windfields. An EWRC would involve a continuous outer eyewall with tremendous convection that chokes off inflow to the inner eyewall, allowing it to collapse. In this case, dry air has wrapped itself into the (one) eyewall, causing it to partially collapse. As for where precipitation begins as you go out from the eye...well, that has to happen at some point, right? Doesn't mean that first encounter of precipitation is an "eyewall."

Think what happened to Katrina and Ivan before landfall. Not EWRC...just dry air.