ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HarlequinBoy]

1150 AM HURRICANE BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

HIGH TENSION POWER LINES BLOWN OVER TO 45 DEGREE ANGLE
NEAR PORT OF BROWNSVILLE

[Category 5]

Finally got a text message from my cousin in Port Isabel.
They are completely frightened...

Port Isabel is getting pummelled right now, tell them to hang in there.

[dizzyfish]

Wow lester88, that SW eyewall is really intense right now some pretty explosive convection at the moment.

Is SPI under that convection or are they further north?

[soney]

Spoke to my in-laws who are in an RV park in Rockport. Luckily, tornado warning was for an area about 5 miles from them. They are watching coverage on TV. I think I'm more scared then they are...

Corpus news reporting massive flooding down south around Brownsville and area.

[TexWx]

They are...
Power gone.

Uh... I really figured they'd come and stay with us...

[JPmia]

Wow lester88, that SW eyewall is really intense right now some pretty explosive convection at the moment.

Yeah, that portion of the eyewall is slamming south padre island, seams like that will be the area with the worst damage.

[HarlequinBoy]

1238 PM HURRICANE PORT ISABEL 26.07N 97.22W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTENSIVE DOCK DAMAGE

1238 PM HURRICANE LOS FRESNOS 26.07N 97.48W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX NWS EMPLOYEE

ROOF DAMAGE TO STORAGE SHED. TREES DOWN.

[KWT]

Sadly soney that was always likely to be the case with such powerful returns in the SW eyewall and a slow moving hurricane.

TexWx, they are just going to have to ride it out, just goes to show never to underestimate a cat-1/2.

[Derek Ortt]

It is hard to believe that Dolly is still ~85 kt based on degrading radar appearance (last two images) and recon data. Avila is understandably retaining his conservative approach, and I certainly can't blame him.

Thunder44's point is very valid.

What in the world are you talking about? Degrading radar appearance? That is not accurate at all

we still have a nearly closed eye wall

is it cat 2? of course not. However, the radar signature is not close to degrading

[drezee]

latest EXt pressure still 966...heights have actually fallen since the last pass

URNT15 KNHC 231741
AF302 1904A DOLLY HDOB 54 20080723
173030 2605N 09703W 6971 03068 9956 +093 +090 251062 065 069 022 00
173100 2607N 09703W 6967 03072 9970 +083 +083 252056 057 069 020 00
173130 2608N 09703W 6967 03076 9954 +098 +090 247048 052 068 013 03
173200 2610N 09704W 6971 02920 9825 +121 +090 250040 043 046 005 03
173230 2612N 09704W 6997 02866 9714 +139 +090 248032 037 038 006 00
173300 2614N 09705W 7027 02813 9685 +152 +090 244022 025 031 004 00
173330 2615N 09705W 6962 02885 9662 +159 +090 245010 014 021 004 00
173400 2617N 09706W 6914 02940 9660 +159 +090 118004 009 007 003 03
173430 2617N 09706W 6914 02940 9660 +156 +090 093010 016 002 003 03
173500 2620N 09707W 6952 02881 9676 +147 +086 095021 025 999 999 03
173530 2621N 09705W 6946 02890 9660 +153 +090 111020 022 999 999 03
173600 2619N 09704W 6926 02928 9669 +155 +090 134017 018 999 999 03
173630 2618N 09705W 6942 02908 9669 +158 +090 124011 014 999 999 03
173700 2618N 09707W 6949 02890 9663 +160 +090 093015 018 999 999 03
173730 2618N 09707W 6949 02890 9662 +159 +090 093016 018 999 999 03
173800 2622N 09707W 6964 02869 9668 +149 +090 091027 031 029 003 00
173830 2623N 09707W 6961 02875 9677 +142 +090 088034 036 034 003 00
173900 2625N 09707W 6960 02880 9687 +133 +090 092041 044 041 004 00
173930 2627N 09707W 6961 02881 9698 +128 +090 095048 050 049 004 00
174000 2629N 09707W 6961 02881 9707 +119 +090 096056 059 057 003 00
$$
;

[KWT]

I agree Derek ,convection is weakening but the actual structure is still holding up very nicely, esp in the SW eyewall where the radar is showing pretty amazing radar returns!

[HarlequinBoy]

I agree Derek ,convection is weakening but the actual structure is still holding up very nicely, esp in the SW eyewall where the radar is showing pretty amazing radar returns!

Which really sucks because the sw eyewall is moving over the higher population areas.

[TexWx]

I remember Alicia, and that wasn't much fun either.

[vbhoutex]

Wow lester88, that SW eyewall is really intense right now some pretty explosive convection at the moment.

Is SPI under that convection or are they further north?

It is under the heaviest areas of convection to the S and SW of the eye right now or at least in the images above.

[HarlequinBoy]

[kurtpage]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231748
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/17:33:50Z
B. 26 deg 16 min N
097 deg 06 min W
C. NA mb 2814 m
D. 69 kt
E. 165 deg 10 nm
F. 252 deg 064 kt
G. 166 deg 012 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3099 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. C22
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 39
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 85 KT N QUAD 17:41:00 Z

[KWT]

Yep indeed HarlequinBoy indeed the SW quadrant must be dumping huge amounts of rain, really not good for the flood prospects.

[funster]

I agree Derek ,convection is weakening but the actual structure is still holding up very nicely, esp in the SW eyewall where the radar is showing pretty amazing radar returns!

Which really sucks because the sw eyewall is moving over the higher population areas.

That's true. If these people are in the shelters they should be ok though.

[artist]

those that can't get in touch with friends and loved ones - remember it can take days if cell towers go down to be able to get through to them sometimes. Also, even if towers remain up, it seems some companies are better than others. After one storm here verizon was the only one working, after another only at&t could get through. So hold on to that thought when you can't reach them. Some land lines may come up shortly after the storm for a couple of hours but will also be flooded with traffic. I know here through BellSouth - now At & T that they have battery packs at the switching stations that give them 2 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Given that the strongest winds are on land and out of Recon reach combined with the 85 kt FL winds, I'd say 85 kt for the landfall intensity.