ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[jhamps10]

Any models on that jhamps10???

some of the models did not show a quick recurve, you can go to the models thread for 97L for that info. I checked last night and the CMC was the main one on it heading towards the islands, but it's a tossup right now on what really happens.

[Gustywind]

Any models on that jhamps10???

some of the models did not show a quick recurve, you can go to the models thread for 97L for that info. I checked last night and the CMC was the main one on it heading towards the islands, but it's a tossup right now on what really happens.

Ok tkanks, i apologize, i forget that we have the models thread on it (97L) . Yeah we should wait and see what really happens...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am more interested in the wave coming behind this one. The 12z GFS shows it trying to develop as it heads towards the islands in 5-8 days. You can check out the latest on this second wave in the following thread...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102072

[Hurricaneman13]

CMC takes this system out to sea near Bermuda as a fairly strong tropical cyclone.

[cooter]

When you guys say recurve what do you mean? What islands? The model on the NHC has it taking a curve to the NE. Do you think that it will stay headed westward towards the caribean? Seams like it is traveling pretty fast. Sorry still learning.

[HURAKAN]

Cooter, it's way too early. We must wait until the system develops or not. If it develops, then talk we can talk about the possible track. It's too early.

[cooter]

I guess I will just have to wait and see. Interesting though.

[HURAKAN]

The only true at the moment is that as the system remains weak, it will move westward. If it intensifies, then the track should turn more NW. Outside from that, it's just the game of wait and see.

[CrazyC83]

It's still several days from developing due to the cooler water.

[xironman]

The Quikscat is a bit old, but it seems to show the feature to the south http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas32.png

[cycloneye]

561
ABNT20 KNHC 231756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Interesting xironman if that is the center then it has dropped WSW in the last 12-18hrs.

[cycloneye]

ATCF best track latest update this afternoon for 97L. It has gone down a little in latitud,from 17n,when it emerged Africa,to now 15.4n.

AL, 97, 2008072318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 302W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[jhamps10]

interesting, take a look at the overview map of the invest at the top of the page. Notice that ever since the CV islands, it has been on a near constant WSW track with the last track post somewhere in the 15N range. With it continuing this WSW track possibly that very well could help to develop this a bit quicker since warmer waters should lay ahead if it goes below 14.5 IIRC???? Pro mets could help me out on that aspect. but it is something to keep an eye on as well as the wave still over Africa which has it's own thread in TT.

[gatorcane]

interesting, take a look at the overview map of the invest at the top of the page. Notice that ever since the CV islands, it has been on a near constant WSW track with the last track post somewhere in the 15N range. With it continuing this WSW track possibly that very well could help to develop this a bit quicker since warmer waters should lay ahead if it goes below 14.5 IIRC???? Pro mets could help me out on that aspect. but it is something to keep an eye on as well as the wave still over Africa which has it's own thread in TT.

Look farther up this thread when 97L was barely off of Africa a couple of days ago. I explained why a WSW track was likely.

That is why I explained why we should not assume a recurve just yet -- of course I am wondering if 97L will even develop anyway.

[KWT]

Well yep its heading south of west at the moment but its still way north of where most waves would be at this point and needs to continue to head WSW for quite some time yet if we are not to assume recurve.

[Cyclenall]

I can't see this forming in the next 120 hours, I'm not thrilled with it like I was days ago.

99.75 hours left until it has the chance to become a TC in my mind. The NHC's statement "DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS" is in line with my prediction now.

[gatorcane]

Looking back at historical tracks, if it gets below 15N then its chances of recurving become less.

[KWT]

True gatorcane and more importantly the further wes ti can get withut doing anything the better as Dolly showed very neatly.

[HURAKAN]

The bursts produced by the system is keeping it alive.