Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[SouthFloridawx]

ECM shows this wave to the North of PR and East of the Bahamas in 260 hours.



GFS to the East of the Islands

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD:

FXCA62 TJSJ 232001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST WED JUL 23 2008

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS MONDAY AND THEN MIGRATES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE YET TO LEAVE
AFRICA WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK
AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE MONTH. IT MAY
CONTAIN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

[canegrl04]

From the San Juan AFD:

FXCA62 TJSJ 232001
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST WED JUL 23 2008

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS MONDAY AND THEN MIGRATES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE YET TO LEAVE
AFRICA WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK
AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE MONTH. IT MAY
CONTAIN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

Sounds like a future problem for the Eastern Gulf or East coast of Florida

[KWT]

Much depends on what 97L does, the thing is this does look like it has a fair chance of comnig out a little further south of 97L and I do see a possible pattern aloft that could take this very westerly IMO.

[RL3AO]

Pretty aggressive AFD.

[Mecklenburg]

Any current image of this thing now?

[jabman98]

Pretty aggressive AFD.

Wow, no kidding. They must have a high level of confidence to be saying such things at this point. It's still on the African continent.

[cycloneye]

It looks pretty good.Pic at 5 PM EDT

[RL3AO]

Is it the one about to emerge? I haven't been following it because of Dolly.

[Anthonyl]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

I believe it's the complex conglomerate of storms furthest west.

[cycloneye]

RI3AO,its the one closest to the coast.

[Anthonyl]

Cyclone are you certain, given the modle consensus the timing seems slightly off.

[cycloneye]

No wonder the San Juan AFD was agressive this afternoon.Look where the 18z GFS has it on July 31.



And here is 18z GFS at 288 hours,fantasyland but look where it goes,to South Florida.

[KWT]

Wow this one does really need to be watched, as does 97L if it can stay weak. Certainly is very interesting to see what the 18z GFS does.

[jhamps10]

No wonder the San Juan AFD was agressive this afternoon.Look where the 18z GFS has it on July 31.



And here is 18z GFS at 288 hours,fantasyland but look where it goes,to South Florida.

and yet another one behind it??????

[Mecklenburg]

waves are parading this early sure is an omen...

[canegrl04]

From the looks of things,I think there will be a couple of names retired this season. The first will be either Eduoard or Fay

[Mecklenburg]

we may see fay and edouard together next week...

[canegrl04]

we may see fay and edouard together next week...

Yep. Unless 97L developes quickly,looks like we will have a rare double threat coming at us,or a one-two punch

[cycloneye]

Pic at 11 PM EDT:



Emerging Africa now.