Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Meso indeed we have seen a model that has finally jumped on board the development bandwagon. Interesting to note and makes it more interesting to see what happens with this wave given its low lattitude and potential to be a westrunner.

[KWT]

This wave does need to be watched though interestingly the huge size opf 97L circulation could cause problems even if it doesn't develop. Still ets see how the convection holds for the next 12hrs.

[Frank2]

Yes, the large circulation of former 97L could shut down anything behind it...

Have a good afternoon (evening, for those here who are in Europe)...

Frank

[stormchazer]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

At this point it's only mentioned in the TWD - the other night, Max Mayfield (former NHC Director, who now works for the Miami ABC affiliate) chuckled when he was speaking about the NHC TWO going outside of the normal, after the NHC forecaster mentioned a system that was still over Africa, since the TWO is usually reserved for tropical systems that are over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico...

As it turned out, Max was correct - the system did not develop as was prematurely (and incorrectly) mentioned in the TWO (it never should have been mentioned at all, since it was still hundreds of miles inland), which just goes to show that even meteorologists can let their emotions get in the way of common sense...

Frank

Frank I might also suggest it is because of us (Enthusiast and the news)! We see so much more data and sat images before hand then we ever did before so we micro-analyze every move the NHC makes. I have already read several post about NHC saying "why havn't they upgraded" and the like. I mean I am as "Hurricane Psycho" as anyone here though I do not post often anymore, but I am shocked that we are now analyzing waves that are still over Africa and at least three or four days from hitting the pond. No criticism, but just a comment on how far we have moved here on S2K and everywhere since I first registered 5 years ago.

Anyway, sorry to go off subject. Back to the wave!

[Weatherfreak14]

The 12z GFS sorta develops it then fizzles this wave out a bit after 4 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_m.shtml

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, the large circulation of former 97L could shut down anything behind it...

Have a good afternoon (evening, for those here who are in Europe)...

Frank

although 97L will be a fish and recurving, so while it may prohibit immediate development, it should be fine down the road.

[Weatherfreak14]

The 12z GFS sorta develops it then fizzles this wave out a bit after 4 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_m.shtml

nope it seems to still hold together and enter into the carribean.

[KWT]

The other side though Frank is that 97L large circulastion may help to moistenthe air up a little as it takes the main dry air/SAL blow whilst the wave behind it my be in better conditions to develop, esp given how much further south it is.

[Frank2]

Oops - I'm back again...

Stormchazer,

I agree, but, that's the way of the world it seems - most things that were considered routine years ago now seem to qualify for "breaking news", and, the same is true in meteorology...

During my time at the NHC, sure, the forecasters would look at the full disk to see if there was anything of interest, but, outside of the normal waves that were analyzed on a surface map, nothing was mentioned of them to the public unless they actually developed...

I happened to wake up for a few minutes early yesterday morning (about 3 or so), and, after turning on TWC for a minute (which was futile, since it was the taped portion of the "EE" segment), I couldn't help think of those here who were still sitting in front of the computer, even at that hour, worrying whether Dolly would go north...

That's why the TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow" program gets under my skin - they present disaster scenarios that are almost silly, but, still manage to scare enough people, who already have enough real things to worry about at the present moment...

A good example of how things have become so complicated - recently, I forgot the password to a password!

Oh, well, back to work...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Let's see if the NHC mentions the wave just coming off Africa in the 2pm EST TWO

[Ivanhater]

Let's see if the NHC mentions the wave just coming off Africa in the 2pm EST TWO

Well I dont see how they ignore this!

[gatorcane]

Here is a nice daytime visible shot of both ex-97L and the new wave off Africa:

[Weatherfreak14]

Let's see if the NHC mentions the wave just coming off Africa in the 2pm EST TWO

Well I dont see how they ignore this!

WOW...... That really looks intresting.

[KWT]

Still looks well entrenched in the ITCZ but indee dit is very hard to ignore it given its a large wave qwith some deep convection on it. Lets see what it does in the next 12hrs, if it keeps this p it will probably Invest 98L before too long.

[Blown Away]

Clarify, this is for the wave that just moved off the coast, not ex 97L or the wave tha t is supposed to move off in a few days.

[catastrophic]

[img]C:\Documents and Settings\dougj195\My Documents\My Pictures\wave.bmp[/img]

[RL3AO]

Catastophic, you have to upload it to a image host. You can't upload straight from your files.

[cycloneye]

No mention of this in the 2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

[Frank2]

It's p-e-r-s-i-s-t-e-n-c-e that counts...

Yipes - this area is under the South Florida seabreeze convergence zone at this time, and, we've been experiencing cloud-to-ground lightning for most of the past hour...

Hopefully no one has been struck...

[Jason_B]

If this doesn't develop (or 97L) then we're probably entering a lull, I say that just because of all the dry air and negative MJO...had a unusual burst of activity through the month, I think a break is due now.