) and the TPC forecast this morning at 11. New information is a bit of a wakeup call to anyone east of New Orleans area. But as promised, I'd make my call last night or this morning. I had a cigarette and bowl of Crunch Berries while composing the 7am post, a headache with the 9:30 one. But FWIW (little if anything), here was my call from CFHC:
7:11am
Obviously despite the opportunities she has had, there were just too many miitgating factors (embedded tropical wave, competing centers, ULL, vertical shear, etc.) for her to crank up to her potential yet. It remains to be seen if she ever will.
Nearly all model guidance along with the NHC official track brings Claudette toward the Texas/Mexican border. Looking at the size and spin of the high pressure behind the front, if Claudette doesn't move any faster, she's going to lose all opportunity to catch the NC or NE Gulf.
I still think she's got the potential to make it up to weak Cat-2, but I'll believe it when I see it. Also, the possibility remains that Claudette could stall a day or two off the TX/Mex coasts prior to landfall. So anyone in those areas needs to be aware of the possibility of heavy rains and strong winds.
Assumption is that the trof in LA will not have a major influence on Claudette's future, my call is for landfall sometime Tuesday in Cameron or Willacy Counties, Texas (North/South Padre Islands) as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.
09:32am
Really. I guess I was early making my call . If you follow the water vapor, you can clearly see where I, the NHC and earlier modeling was going with this system. There's a big old high behind the trof that is settling into Texas and NW LA, and one would assume that the westerly flow around that high (which would become a blocking high btw) would ultimately steer Claudette to the west. The reasoning was good. I made the call based on it, so I have to stick with it win, lose or draw.
However, Claudette decided to come a little further north than anticipated. Several models switch to an LA solution (which they mostly hadn't done at 00z and 06z). So you have to ask, "how does Claudette get through the SW flow in front of the trof?" I have no idea. So I go read Bastardi and he pretty much says the same thing. If it's going to South Texas, it's 5 days at least. He's equally split on a Boothville-Appalachacola landfall if the storm is still moving N or NW tomorrow at this time. Finally, he notes, "I was thinking also that the stalling front being resisted by the big high with the trof to the west would look like a nice place to go if I was a tropical storm." One thing he also mentioned was that he can't make an intensity call yet, but he thinks it will 'get quite strong.'
So effectively, he isn't making a call. Will it be South Texas (my call)? Will it be LA (many web posters' calls)? Will it be MS/AL/NW FL? Stay tuned.
Oh yeah, one more little tidbit. The pattern that bore Claudette out of the ITCZ with the ULL backing WSW from the SW Atlantic is repeating itself. GFS wants a storm heading toward Miami late next week. I don't know if this is going to verify, but I mentioned this past Monady or Tuesday that the possibilities existed that the pattern would repeat but north and east of the previous pattern.
Does anyone else really believe this is July?
Steve
I just want to make it through Claudette.
