ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

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HUC
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#221 Postby HUC » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:45 pm

Don't work at all!!!!! it's not the first time that happens .I think the webmaster had change something in the code and some of us cannot accesss, because of this change. Gusty,i will answer my brother for a solution,or someone in the board can help us???? :cry:
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#222 Postby O Town » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:48 pm

Isn't there a backup NRL site?
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Re:

#223 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:50 pm

O Town wrote:Isn't there a backup NRL site?


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#224 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:54 pm

HUC wrote:Don't work at all!!!!! it's not the first time that happens .I think the webmaster had change something in the code and some of us cannot accesss, because of this change. Gusty,i will answer my brother for a solution,or someone in the board can help us???? :cry:

OH Huc dont' be so sad :) things will turn quickly i hope the very best for you, we have the one of the best board here, we should find an issue, i keep the faith , but sometimes very difficult to be calm, lol, tkink like me that you were temporally upset! :oops: :( :spam: !!!
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#225 Postby O Town » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:
O Town wrote:Isn't there a backup NRL site?


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi


Yes thanks RL3AO. Try the link above HUC. :uarrow:

If that one doesn't work try this one, a bit different than the one on the previous page Gustywind posted.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/
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Mecklenburg

Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#226 Postby Mecklenburg » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:57 pm

i believe this thing will regenerate
Last edited by Mecklenburg on Thu Jul 24, 2008 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#227 Postby HUC » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:59 pm

Rl3Ao,don't work ..............So, i propose that we stop that discussion,because it's not the place...thanks all .I hope we will found a solution. My other links work fine,and wee are looking about 97L,isn'it????
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#228 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:06 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 23N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE WEST DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME
FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 32W-39W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE
MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A LARGE BULGE OF MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE ATLC
SURFACE HIGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#229 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:12 pm

Image
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#230 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:20 pm

24/2345 UTC 14.6N 37.0W TOO WEAK 97L
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#231 Postby blp » Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:54 pm

Seems to me like the GFS is a little off. GFS wants to start moving this WNW to NW in 24 hrs and has it above 20N at 36hrs. I don't see how this can move that far North considering it is quite shallow and I don't see this getting any deeper in the next several days with all that dry air.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=036hr

I might be reading this chart wrong, but if it stays shallow it should continue moving W or WNW further than the GFS portrays.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Either way it seems like the ridge will weaken considerably if it gets closer to the islands.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#232 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:08 pm

blp wrote:Seems to me like the GFS is a little off. GFS wants to start moving this WNW to NW in 24 hrs and has it above 20N at 36hrs. I don't see how this can move that far North considering it is quite shallow and I don't see this getting any deeper in the next several days with all that dry air.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=036hr

I might be reading this chart wrong, but if it stays shallow it should continue moving W or WNW further than the GFS portrays.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Either way it seems like the ridge will weaken considerably if it gets closer to the islands.


Hurakan's graphic pretty much sums it up. 97L seems to be fish bound in my opinion. Look for possible slow development in about 2 days but gradually curving NW and eventually North. It's looking less likely we will see a tropical storm or greater system out of this though.
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#233 Postby bob rulz » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:11 pm

What happened to ex-97L? I went to work, I come back, and it's not even mentioned in the TWO anymore, nor is it on the NRL site. Did it really dissipate that fast?
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Re:

#234 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:14 pm

bob rulz wrote:What happened to ex-97L? I went to work, I come back, and it's not even mentioned in the TWO anymore, nor is it on the NRL site. Did it really dissipate that fast?


Pretty much, its struggling in the SAL and cooler SSTs at the moment.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#235 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:14 pm

Still has a large circulation.

Image
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#236 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:14 pm

I was surprised that it was left in NRL for so long. Usually when an invest is deactivated, it's taken down from NRL.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#237 Postby blp » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
blp wrote:Seems to me like the GFS is a little off. GFS wants to start moving this WNW to NW in 24 hrs and has it above 20N at 36hrs. I don't see how this can move that far North considering it is quite shallow and I don't see this getting any deeper in the next several days with all that dry air.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=036hr

I might be reading this chart wrong, but if it stays shallow it should continue moving W or WNW further than the GFS portrays.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Either way it seems like the ridge will weaken considerably if it gets closer to the islands.


Hurakan's graphic pretty much sums it up. 97L seems to be fish bound in my opinion. Look for possible slow development in about 2 days but gradually curving NW and eventually North. It's looking less likely we will see a tropical storm or greater system out of this though.



I do see the southerly trajectory more likely and I agree it looks fishy. I just don't see this going that North that quickly. Does anyone have a link to steering current forecasts that go further out than the +3hrs that we see at CIMMS.
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#238 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:36 pm

Tropical waves don't recurve (at least I've never seen one). It will continue to move west until it develops, hits the East coast, or hits the GOM coast.
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Re: Ex 97L in East Atlantic

#239 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:51 pm

RL3AO wrote:Tropical waves don't recurve (at least I've never seen one). It will continue to move west until it develops, hits the East coast, or hits the GOM coast.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 23N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.
Latest Quickscat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds112.png
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#240 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:47 pm

Image

Image

Just like last night, convection is on the increase.
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