ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[cpdaman]

aww look. its just out there chillin

Not expecting much till August. Gonna take a break for awhile. See you all.

right, see you in a week (Aug)

[tailgater]

Please take a look at this satellite loop and tell where the Low(center) is located?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Please take a look at this satellite loop and tell where the Low(center) is located?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

Southerly Shear would make that pretty hard to find

[gatorcane]

Lots of convection, if that keeps up it will only be a matter of time before a surface low appears. Conditions for development improve over the next couple of days. It should be mentioned by NHC at 2PM EST TWO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How come 97L isn't on the Storm2K map.



Just got on the interweb this morning. Maybe this was answered a few hours ago, but am at work and can't search.


When I boldly predicted at least 72 hours to Edouard yesterday (and to add boldness, I'll add 24 hours to the 48 remaining, making it 72 hours again) I noted dry air all around 97L. Now, bit low latitude, but what is just entering stage right looks interesting.

In 3 days, 97L may be getting more interesting.



My unofficial, yet bold, prediction of at least 72 hours to Edouard is not official, I am not a professional, and is not endorsed by Storm2K.org

[Ed Mahmoud]

Lots of convection, if that keeps up it will only be a matter of time before a surface low appears. Conditions for development improve over the next couple of days. It should be mentioned by NHC at 2PM EST TWO.

Loop the water vapor, it isn't only being sheared, it is being sheared by very dry air.

3 days minimum, in my unprofessional opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gotta get back to work.

Late development is a bad thing. It is already close to being at a latitude to miss the Caribbean, so if it does develop next 3 days, or even 4 days, the chances for a hit there look fairly favorable (favorable in a good way, a miss). If it waits 5 or 6 days, it cuts it awfully close. Of course, then its time to strengthen before hitting the NE Caribbean is limited.


The farther West it gets before development, the greater the chance of impact in the Caribbean, or later for the US, Bahamas or Bemruda.

[cycloneye]

Already at 18.5n its at the same latitud of Anguilla in the BVI.So no NE Caribbean hit.

[Sanibel]

Like 94L my instinct says it wants this one to develop, but the time of year is perfect to wipe it out too. Weak spin and weak convection. Still this one has survived and is maintaining a weak convection tag. And we've all seen weak spots like this blossom into systems. All depends on the conditions ahead of it and if the season is primed enough to boost it.

On first glance, combined with the fact Dolly withstood conditions, this should develop. Also, track looks like a recurver closer to the coast than Bertha.

[GCANE]

The Surface low is at ~12N 41W.

[gatorcane]

Also, track looks like a recurver closer to the coast than Bertha.

Why do you say that? Just curious what your forecast reasoning is here

[Cyclone1]

Wow surprised to see him alive again. Especially with a weak surface low. With a surface low... they can pretty much pull the trigger of 97 at any time.

[xironman]

Yeah, the buoy said it was south of 15N. Next up is http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[boca]

Gcane thats weird because theirs nothing on sat suggesting a low by 12n and 41w,its up at 18n.

[Cyclone1]

Hmm that is weird...

I can't explain that.

[cycloneye]

The only explanation may be that the low the pass showed dissipated after the pass and a new low is underneath the convection.

[GCANE]

ASCAT shows something weak here as well. Also, shear is not as bad down there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12º would be a better place for something to try and go. But the storms are up with the shear, and are probably a product of it.

[GCANE]

And what about that UL High sitting right over it as shown in the Shear Map?