Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bertha was an impressive wave coming off Africa, with good model support, IIRC.

The now discredited 97L, ditto.


Some really good looking waves become major hurricanes, and some become nada.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[hial2]

does MJO inhibits it's organization?

I think I read a pro say (Derek?) that MJO has no effect on waves while in western Atlantic..

WRONG INFO!! What Mr Ortt said was that MJO has no effect on waves OUTSIDE of western Atlantic and GOM..Sorry for my error

[Emmett_Brown]

Seems to be making pretty rapid westward progress... the leading edge of the envelop has passed 20W already. The cloud mass is also still very spread out. IMO, this indicates that this will probably take a couple of days to organize... probably wont get its act together until 45W or so.

[boca]

I think this wave has potential even though its spread out.I think this one will develop once it gets to 45 or 50w.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

The 06GFS does latch on to this but I think its a little slow were they initialize it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

Hial2 : I think you were right the first time.Derek said that the MJO has little to no influence outside of the Gulf Of Mexico and the Western Caribbean I think.

[drezee]

Based on the high-res visble loops, I would guess the area of low pressure is near 8.5N and 14.5W

[Sanibel]

The basin has flashed negative as far as convection. July reality. It can flash back on just as fast. Why Bertha took and 97L didn't is one of those weird things.

[cheezyWXguy]

does MJO inhibits it's organization?

I think I read a pro say (Derek?) that MJO has no effect on waves while in western Atlantic..

you mean eastern...

[Sanibel]

Our African wave seems to have a little more spin and a Low to it. See if it lasts. It's moving into a convection desert currently.

[Frank2]

Strong Disturbance? It appears to be just another ITCZ area of convection that's about to poof...

Sorry, folks...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Strong Disturbance? It appears to be just another ITCZ area of convection that's about to poof...

Sorry, folks...

Even with this, and offshore Florida/Alabama blob watch, I still feel my remarkably bold, yet unofficial prediction, of no more Atlantic TCs in July will verify.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Strong Disturbance? It appears to be just another ITCZ area of convection that's about to poof...

Sorry, folks...

Even with this, and offshore Florida/Alabama blob watch, I still feel my remarkably bold, yet unofficial prediction, of no more Atlantic TCs in July will verify.

I will say, hasn't poofed as of 7 am Ed Mahmoud time, and 1 pm Ed time image should be up in 2 or 3 hours.

[drezee]

Even with this, and offshore Florida/Alabama blob watch, I still feel my remarkably bold, yet unofficial prediction, of no more Atlantic TCs in July will verify.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

*Goes on invest 98L watch*

[SapphireSea]

Despite the bit of E shear it will go through, it seems like it does have some potential. The lack of moisture though will be a good hurdle for this one as it crosses the Atlantic. The good news would be that ridging is almost non-existant past 55W in the mid to upper levels, so anything that does develop has a good chance of recurve, however that would be premature and can change. I'd give it 5 degrees more west of travel, if it holds together it should likely be 98L.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

watch the loop very well defined circulation.. just off the coast about 9N ! 16W!

it looks very healthy would be rather surprised if it does not develop slowly.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[RL3AO]

This is kind interesting.


The TWD doesn't say this is a tropical wave. Its only mentioned as convection under the ITCZ section.


Now lets look at the TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.