Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[drezee]

0z NAM turns this thing into a tropical storm and hits N FL as a 999mb strengthening storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Usually, we have East winds out the kaboo, and are looking for West winds. I see plenty of low level flow from West, but I don't see an East wind that would suggest a developing low level circulation.

Hard to get too excited when the models aren't enthusiastic.


But it has the advantage of being real close to Florida and Alabama, always good for some thread traffic.

[drezee]

Buoy 42039 SW winds 28.79 N 86.01 W

Buoy 42040 NW winds 29.21 N 88.21 W

Buoy APCF1 varibale light winds (latest SE winds at 2-4 knots) 29.21 N 88.21 W

[Stormcenter]

This area is looking very interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Too far offshore for long range radar.

[njweather]

Any idea if there's a tropical wave in close proximity that this could interact with? I'm not even sure if that's possible, but just throwing the idea out there...

[vbhoutex]

I still do not see any thing to suggest a spin up yet. All of the lower level flow appears to be offshore with mid level or upper level appearing to be west to east. This is definitely an area to watch though. If anything there seems to be a very slow SW drift to it.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like the complex of thunderstorms is drifting SW to my old eyes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Buoy 42039 SW winds 28.79 N 86.01 W

Buoy 42040 NW winds 29.21 N 88.21 W

Buoy APCF1 varibale light winds (latest SE winds at 2-4 knots) 29.21 N 88.21 W

I checked on shore obs from Panama City and Pensacola. Until I start seeing East winds North of the convection, instead of West winds, I won't get crazy enthusiastic.



West component to winds across most of the Gulf, more light and variable peninsular Florida, so there could be a general convergence.

Indeed, the CIMMS convergence product seems impressed. I remain unofficially neutral, but a couple of favorable model runs might change my mind.

[drezee]

Buoy 42039 SW winds 28.79 N 86.01 W

Buoy 42040 NW winds 29.21 N 88.21 W

Buoy APCF1 varibale light winds (latest SE winds at 2-4 knots) 29.21 N 88.21 W

I checked on shore obs from Panama City and Pensacola. Until I start seeing East winds North of the convection, instead of West winds, I won't get crazy enthusiastic.



West component to winds across most of the Gulf, more light and variable peninsular Florida, so there could be a general convergence.

Indeed, the CIMMS convergence product seems impressed. I remain unofficially neutral, but a couple of favorable model runs might change my mind.

agreed, that is why I posted the real data...I would rather this thing drift SW to get a better picture of a windfield if it develops.

We could then use 42003, 42039 and 42040...

[fwbbreeze]

there are easterly winds along the coastal sections of the western Florida Panhandle.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=FLZ006

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=164

[srainhoutx]

I still do not see any thing to suggest a spin up yet. All of the lower level flow appears to be offshore with mid level or upper level appearing to be west to east. This is definitely an area to watch though. If anything there seems to be a very slow SW drift to it.

I will say that these complexes have persistance to them. A complex seems to roll offshore daily from the N. There does appear to be a bit of SW drift with this disturbance. Something to keep an eye on, none the less. This area of the GOM does have a history of surprises.

[Kennethb]

Most reporting stations here in LA reporting West winds. Would need to see more North to Northeast winds in LA before much would develop.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at each new visible loop the area does make you want to say hmmmmmmm just maybe.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

I was just looking at the satellites loops and I seen that so I came over here to see if any thing going on with it. It could be a another Christabel. Who knows? the waters are very warm.

[Stormcenter]

The area to watch if something were to get going down in the GOM is due south or SSW of the AL/FL border. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"]It looks like the complex of thunderstorms is drifting SW to my old eyes.[/quote]



I agree...it does appear to be drifting in that direction...I don't see much happening with this...if something does develope it would seem to me that it would be more of a Central GOM problem...

[Stormcenter]

Here is another good sat. loop to monitor the GOM with.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[Category 5]

This I believe is a simular situation that spawned Hurricane Danny in 1997. I don't see anything to suggest development yet, but if it sits out there for a few days you never know.

[srainhoutx]

This I believe is a simular situation that spawned Hurricane Danny in 1997. I don't see anything to suggest development yet, but if it sits out there for a few days you never know.

Let's not forget Alicia/1983. Eerly familiar as we approach the 25th Anniversay. Also checking buoy data from LA to FL, there does appear to be surface low slowly developing. Something to keep an eye on as the day unfolds.