Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[stevetampa33614]

looks like a floater is being moved over it? Possible invest at 11:00pm?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely putting out some lightning out there this AM, saw the flashes offshore before daybreak and can hear it on my AM Radio all morning.

This is the remnats of that energy that came down through Miss. yesterday, could be interesting if it persists.

[Dean4Storms]

Some slight rotation showing up on Long Range Radar out of Mobile, sure it is not reflecting a surface spin but this is how a MCS usually works its way to the surface, persistance is the key.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Kludge]

looks like a floater is being moved over it? Possible invest at 11:00pm?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Good catch, Steve. It appears they moved the floater for the 15:45Z frame.

[Ed Mahmoud]

On the one hand, a very slow multi-day trend near this of lowering pressure, on the other hand, today's early morning diurnal rise in pressure seems bigger than yesterday's.


Ergo, if something is happening, it is crawling...

[stevetampa33614]

looks like a floater is being moved over it? Possible invest at 11:00pm?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Good catch, Steve. It appears they moved the floater for the 15:45Z frame.

thank you sir.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There might be a rotation about due East of Venice, LA (where I was never drunk, but have parked my car for weeks at a time at the Chevron heliport), but the radar that far out is aimed pretty high.


Oh, and the pixel resolution on the long range loop leaves something to be desired as well.


If the big blob is still there around 5 pm this afternoon, and/or 12Z models show any enthusiasm, I am willing to be convinced this has a chance, but as of now, I am not super excited.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No 12Z GFS development next few days, and GFS suggests general poof-ation of convection between 0Z and 6Z this evening.

[tolakram]

My Gulf Shores vacation is over but I'd still hate to see that area get hit. Let's hope is doesn't develop.

[JSDS]

I'd hate to see Gulf Shores get hit too, but for a different reason. My vacation isn't over yet, and my son is getting married on the beach in Gulf Shores on August 16th. You'd think with a Mom who is a tropical weather freak he would have chosen a different time of year or a different location!

[tolakram]

I'll keep my fingers crossed for ya!

Here's the current animated long range radar. New storms developing but no obvious signs of any circulation.

[stevetampa33614]

counting me in as doubting this will become much of anything other than a rainmaker.

On the off chance it does develop, Im probably giving this thing a 2 out of 10 chance. Not very good. Old Frontal boundaries do spin up tropical Systems yes. But usually in the gulf stream off the east coast where conditions are better suited for long term conversion. The gulf is just too small. This will probably fickle out over land in the next 2-3 days.

[Stormcenter]

counting me in as doubting this will become much of anything other than a rainmaker.

On the off chance it does develop, Im probably giving this thing a 2 out of 10 chance. Not very good. Old Frontal boundaries do spin up tropical Systems yes. But usually in the gulf stream off the east coast where conditions are better suited for long term conversion. The gulf is just too small. This will probably fickle out over land in the next 2-3 days.

2-3 days? If this is still out there tomorrow morning then I give a 50/50 chance of developing.
Right now it is only something to look at.

[stevetampa33614]

Well looks like the convective blobs merged in the last frame. Wait at 11:00 see what the nhc says

[Kludge]

No 12Z GFS development next few days, and GFS suggests general poof-ation of convection between 0Z and 6Z this evening.

"Poof-ation"? And here I thought I'd finally understood all of the meteorological terminology used on this board. Maybe we should start a voting thread on this GOM blob for "Probability-of-Poofation (PoP)"

My guess would be 80%, dropping to 20% if it's still around at this time tomorrow.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Stormcenter]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I am actually very surprised that they mentioned it but don't think it's moving northwestward....well at least not yet.

[Stormcenter]

Okay now this may start to get a little interesting per this afternoon's NWS discusssion from New Orleans, LA

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion


AN MCS IS UNDERWAY IN
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS WELL BELOW MOBILE BAY AND
ADVANCING WESTWARD. THIS MAY SERVE MORE IN DISRUPTING THE ONSET OF
GULF AND LAKE BREEZE AS WELL AS DISRUPTING INFLOW TO LAND BASED
CONVECTION ONCE ESTABLISHED. PRESSURES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING AROUND
1012MB WITH THIS CLUSTER BUT PERSISTENCE MAY SEE PRESSURES
STARTING TO FALL LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[vbhoutex]

Been looking at both satellite loops and surface obs for a good while today. What I am seeing in the sat loops is a drift SW of the entire system-not sure where NHC is finding the NW component unless it is something they expect later on. Saw several outflow boundaries thrown out on both the NW and Se sides of this. If there is any type of circulation out there attm it is at the mid levels. Low level flow is still obviously offshore to me towards the SW.
The bouys and reporting stations in the area also indicate the SW drift of this system with their winds and how they are changing. I found no pressure falls, which isn't that unusual at this time of day, but I do not see any indication that this has made it down to the surface as more than a broad low pressure trof as NHC said.
It will have to persist for at least another 24-36 hours with good convection if it wants to have a chance to develop further, imo. I certainly won't rule it out because we have seen it happen in the past, but attm I don't see a lot of promise in this one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian model initializes with weak 850 mb vorticity, shows it strengthening, but moves it inland towards Mississippi (ie, Northwest) in a day, precluding development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008072812&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

UK Met shows a weaker 850 mb vorticity area, but also moves it inland w/o development, as does GFS.


Possible source of NHC 'moving Northwest' statement. Or, maybe, NHC is actually plotting pressures and features, and despite apparent cloud motions, it is drifting Northwest.