Bermuda High Setup

[boca]

I knew as soon as I purchased hurricane shutters in 2006 I wouldn't have to use them.Maybe are luck here in S Florida will continue like in 06 and 07.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I knew as soon as I purchased hurricane shutters in 2006 I wouldn't have to use them.Maybe are luck here in S Florida will continue like in 06 and 07.

80% of FL Canes from the south and SW so don't put the shutters in the attic yet...

[boca]

I knew as soon as I purchased hurricane shutters in 2006 I wouldn't have to use them.Maybe are luck here in S Florida will continue like in 06 and 07.

80% of FL Canes from the south and SW so don't put the shutters in the attic yet...

I can't their accordians their attached to the house already.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I knew as soon as I purchased hurricane shutters in 2006 I wouldn't have to use them.Maybe are luck here in S Florida will continue like in 06 and 07.

80% of FL Canes from the south and SW so don't put the shutters in the attic yet...

I can't their accordians their attached to the house already.

Ohh..LOL..well then...close them every once and a while to see how dark it gets...

[Recurve]

80% of FL Canes from the south and SW so don't put the shutters in the attic yet...

Is it really that high a percentage? In any case, the absolute worst ones seem to come from E and SE. Labor Day, Donna, Betsy, Andrew, 1928, and others of course.

At least for the east coast, as bad as Wilma was, a storm almost has to go over some land if it's recurving. So those Caribbean sneak/backdoor storms don't frighten me as much as the long runners. Even though I know we are more likely to get them from the south.

[gatorcane]

If you look back at South Florida Hurricane climatology for the last 150 years using Miami, FL (25.78N, 80.21W) to see all major hurricanes (CAT 3+) that have passed within 65 miles, you will find that 8 major hurricanes originated from the South and Southwest. All of those hurricanes originated in the Southwest or Western Caribbean and made a north or northeast turn west of 80W. Namely these hurricanes crossed the Western part of Cuba which is generally flat and not as disruptive to a hurricane than the eastern part of Cuba. These hurricanes generally required (but not always) a weaker Bermuda High or one that was displaced more east in the Western Atlantic.

Looking at those major hurricanes that originated from the east, you will find 11 hurricanes. All of these hurricanes except one passed through the Atlantic waters between 25N and the Greater Antilles and passed through the Herbert Box near the Leeward islands. Hurricane Andrew tracked just north of 25N, a rare hit for South Florida given the lattitude of Andrew's track. These types of hurricanes required a Bermuda High positioned farther West in the Western Atlantic to move systems towards South Florida from the east.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, from 1851 through 2007, there have only been six intense W Caribbean hurricanes that passed within ~65 nmi of Miami's coordinates near 25.78 N 80.21 W. The second 1948 hurricane (Storm 8) and Isbell 1964 were Category 2 hurricanes at landfall, respectively.

Here is the official data.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist18512007.txt

[Blown Away]

Have not noticed much E winds this summer which is a sign of weak or easterly placed BH.

[jinftl]

Also keep in mind that around 90% of hurricanes that effect south florida occur between aug 15 and oct 15...the true 'heart' of the season has yet to start!

I knew as soon as I purchased hurricane shutters in 2006 I wouldn't have to use them.Maybe are luck here in S Florida will continue like in 06 and 07.

80% of FL Canes from the south and SW so don't put the shutters in the attic yet...

[RL3AO]

Really weak now.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_00.gif

[Emmett_Brown]

Watching the high over the past week, and looking at models over the next 10 days, the Bermuda high looks like it will remain weak. But this should not give us a false sense of security. One of the reasons that the high is weak is the persistent heat wave and high in the west. Denver has had highs over 90F about 20 days in a row. This is extremely rare.

This persistent ridge in the west has meant persistent troughing in the east.

This is just a gut hunch on my part, but i would not be at all surprised to see that ridge in the west break down in about 3 weeks, just in time for the brunt of the season. I dont have any computer models to back this up, this is just a hunch. Patterns often flip flop.

I guess this answers the question of where will Bermuda High setup... it doesnt ever really set up... it just is where it is, and it changes. It only matters where it is when there is a storm to track, and right now, there are none.

[ronjon]

GFS model runs over the last several days are showing a pattern change in two weeks where a fairly strong 500 mb ridge will build in the Atlantic and extend westward into the SE US. It's a long way off but perhaps the troughiness over the eastern US may disappear by mid-August.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:

If you look back at South Florida Hurricane climatology for the last 150 years using Miami, FL (25.78N, 80.21W) to see all major hurricanes (CAT 3+) that have passed within 65 miles, you will find that 8 major hurricanes originated from the South and Southwest. All of those hurricanes originated in the Southwest or Western Caribbean and made a north or northeast turn west of 80W. Namely these hurricanes crossed the Western part of Cuba which is generally flat and not as disruptive to a hurricane than the eastern part of Cuba. These hurricanes generally required (but not always) a weaker Bermuda High or one that was displaced more east in the Western Atlantic.

Looking at those major hurricanes that originated from the east, you will find 11 hurricanes. All of these hurricanes except one passed through the Atlantic waters between 25N and the Greater Antilles and passed through the Herbert Box near the Leeward islands. Hurricane Andrew tracked just north of 25N, a rare hit for South Florida given the lattitude of Andrew's track. These types of hurricanes required a Bermuda High positioned farther West in the Western Atlantic to move systems towards South Florida from the east.

You miss quite a few hurricanes from the East by only going out 65 miles from 25.78N, 80.21W. 65 miles N of 25.78N, 80.21W only gets you to about West Palm Beach. There have been many hurricanes between West Palm Beach north to Vero Beach. There are a few from the SW that were counted in your stats, but most displayed missed your 65 mile range. Many hurricanes affect Florida from the East, there is not that big of a % difference between hurricanes that affect the SFL area from the S/SW and E.
Majors:
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Cat 1 & 2:
[img][/img]

[lonelymike]

Where did you find that website BlownAway?

[Blown Away]

Where did you find that website BlownAway?

Goto the NHC website and click on "Hurricane History", located on the left side. This link will take you directly there"
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.jsp