Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[Aric Dunn]

watch the loop very well defined circulation.. just off the coast about 9N ! 16W!

it looks very healthy would be rather surprised if it does not develop slowly.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

get ready to be surprised Aric

[Aric Dunn]

get ready to be surprised Aric

you say that why?

[ConvergenceZone]

get ready to be surprised Aric

Oh come on Derek, you don't know for sure either....True you've nailed some predictions, but you've been wrong on some too. You are only human.......

[cycloneye]

This is kind interesting.


The TWD doesn't say this is a tropical wave. Its only mentioned as convection under the ITCZ section.


Now lets look at the TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

I give more weight to the TWOS.That is why I changed the title to tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET text:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.9N 15.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 29.07.2008 9.9N 15.9W WEAK

12UTC 29.07.2008 11.8N 17.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.07.2008 13.0N 19.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.07.2008 15.0N 22.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.07.2008 16.0N 26.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.07.2008 16.7N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.08.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Frank2]

There's the proof that'll go poof - y'all need to calm down some...

Really, looking at that visible photo, there really is hardly anything there ('cept for a lot of dry air, perhaps)...

[Aric Dunn]

There's the proof that'll go poof - y'all need to calm down some...

Really, looking at that visible photo, there really is hardly anything there ('cept for a lot of dry air, perhaps)...

you just have to know what to look for

also one model does not dictate the weather

[stevetampa33614]

why would this be any different then 97l? and the wave before that.. And the one before that. Everyones always hyping up these june/july waves. It isnt Cape Verde Season. This isnt gonna happen. All I see there is small fast movng Low with some convection spinning in alot of hostile air. Really dont need to be watching the meteosat African waves tills mid august.


Im sure 95% certain when I wake up tommorrow this thing wont be a Category 12 with 450 mph winds, and so big that it actually pulls super cooled air down from the earths trophosphere.

[Cyclenall]

why would this be any different then 97l? and the wave before that.. And the one before that. Everyones always hyping up these june/july waves. It isnt Cape Verde Season. This isnt gonna happen. All I see there is small fast movng Low with some convection spinning in alot of hostile air. Really dont need to be watching the meteosat African waves tills mid august.

Hurricane Bertha.

[Jason_B]

why would this be any different then 97l? and the wave before that.. And the one before that. Everyones always hyping up these june/july waves. It isnt Cape Verde Season. This isnt gonna happen. All I see there is small fast movng Low with some convection spinning in alot of hostile air. Really dont need to be watching the meteosat African waves tills mid august.

No offense but where have you been this month? Bertha and Dolly were from waves that emerged off Africa. Now I don't think this will develop because conditions have changed since Dolly, but so far this has not really been a usual season in terms of where to look for development because we've had plenty of activity out there.

[stevetampa33614]

wow.

Was my sarcasm not picked up?

I give this thing a 3,5/10 shot based on last sat.

[cheezyWXguy]

There's the proof that'll go poof - y'all need to calm down some...

Really, looking at that visible photo, there really is hardly anything there ('cept for a lot of dry air, perhaps)...

you just have to know what to look for

also one model does not dictate the weather

And one model that NEVER develops ANYTHING certainly does not dictate the weather either. I rarely ever see that model develop anything that is under TS status(at least not much). That, along with all models, should be taken lightly until there is an actual storm there. And I understand that you are super negative on any development from this storm, Frank2, but I think its better to just wait and see than automatically assume it wont develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

Frank is a good guy, I like am, but he seems to always be bearish on anthing that we start to comment on(conditions or storms) for potential development...

[cycloneye]

Aric,you almost nailed the position of the low.Here is the first ssd plot:

28/1800 UTC 9.2N 15.4W TOO WEAK INV -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[vbhoutex]

CUT THE COMMENTS ON OTHERS and talk about the subject of the thread!! 'NUFF SAID!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,you almost nailed the position of the low.Here is the first ssd plot:

28/1800 UTC 9.2N 15.4W TOO WEAK INV -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

yeah its pretty evident on visible sat loop i posted with it.. not so hard to extrap the center from the curved bands that are rotating around it.

[ConvergenceZone]

okay. not much until the end of August. too much sal and dry air..

[cycloneye]

TPC has a 1009 mb low just off the coast in the 18z analysis.

[njweather]

okay. not much until the end of August. too much sal and dry air..

Three week forecast... Not even the GFS claims such foresight!

SAL isn't too bad: