Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[Ed Mahmoud]

This wave has only 3/4 fizzled, still, between the loss of convection with this, and the poof-ation of the Northern GOM blob watch blob (as predicted by the 12Z GFS, BTW) I am becoming amazingly confident my bold ( but unofficial) prediction of no Atlantic TCs before August will verify with flying colors.


More unofficially, I think we'll get through the first week of August as well, but I won't be quite as bold as to make a courageous, but unofficial, prediction of that.

[RL3AO]

I'll go out on a limb an say the 'Q' storm won't form this season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll go out on a limb an say the 'Q' storm won't form this season.

You have nerves of steel.

2008
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Quincy
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will go as far as to say that the P storm won't form this season. The record don't show many seasons that where even that active so its a good bet. I do expect some more hurricanes and even some major hurricanes.

I don't expect the hurricane season to really get going until late August and Sept. With 3 long tracking cape verde storms forming within that period. Possibly a powerful one at that.

At that I would say that some slow development is likely with this. But this could very well go poof.

[RL3AO]

So was Quincy the first 'Q' name you could think of (only?).

[Ed Mahmoud]

So was Quincy the first 'Q' name you could think of (only?).

Yes I thought before a Pat/Robin/Chris name like Rene, nobody would notice.


I was thinking of Quincy Jones.

[bvigal]

(Quincy Jones - The Dude - great!)

If this low is at 10N 14W and moving WNW, as written in TWD (or 9.4N 15.8W by SSD). That's 3000 miles from 20N 60W, and north of there on straight extrap, with no curve whatsoever. (zzzzzzz) Check back with me if it moves due west for two days, or when it's at 10N 35W... then I'll pay real good attention.

[Squarethecircle]

I am becoming amazingly confident my bold ( but unofficial) prediction of no Atlantic TCs before August will verify with flying colors.


More unofficially, I think we'll get through the first week of August as well, but I won't be quite as bold as to make a courageous, but unofficial, prediction of that.

The best in the world at the NHC don't even go beyond 48 hours. Surely you don't believe you can foresee development better then the best of the best, do you? If the NHC could accurately predict what the tropics would be like in 72 hours or 7 days away then I am very confident they would alert the public. They don't forecast development or no development beyond 48 hours for a reason.

Predicting a lack of development is much, much easier, because it simply requires the truth of the statement that there simply are no systems capable of forming (which, it could be made a very good case for, is true right now). When you think of it that way, it boils down to the fact that there's nothing out there right now, and something's got to come flying out of the great blue yonder in the next couple days or else that's the end of it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I am becoming amazingly confident my bold ( but unofficial) prediction of no Atlantic TCs before August will verify with flying colors.


More unofficially, I think we'll get through the first week of August as well, but I won't be quite as bold as to make a courageous, but unofficial, prediction of that.

The best in the world at the NHC don't even go beyond 48 hours. Surely you don't believe you can foresee development better then the best of the best, do you? If the NHC could accurately predict what the tropics would be like in 72 hours or 7 days away then I am very confident they would alert the public. They don't forecast development or no development beyond 48 hours for a reason.

Predicting a lack of development is much, much easier, because it simply requires the truth of the statement that there simply are no systems capable of forming (which, it could be made a very good case for, is true right now). When you think of it that way, it boils down to the fact that there's nothing out there right now, and something's got to come flying out of the great blue yonder in the next couple days or else that's the end of it.

We must watch the system off of Africa. But besides that there is nothing what so ever that can develop, or at least nothing that jumps out at you that has even the slightest chance. I would watch very carefully the system off of Africa.

Anyways I expect 1998,1999,2000, 2001 like season.

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z CMC

18Z GFS

12Z Nogaps

12Z UKMET

[Ad Novoxium]

I'll go out on a limb an say the 'Q' storm won't form this season.

You have nerves of steel.

2008
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Quincy
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

I remember someone on Wiki proposing that instead of using Greek letters for names, they use names that could apply unisexually (names like Andy, Kelly, Jamie, Christopher). Excluding those, the only conceivable English Q female names are all variants of the word "Queen" including "Queen" itself. Many of the others originate in China, except for Quinn and Quincy, both unisex.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it's time to get very interested with this system. For one quickscat confirms strong inflow and a "west" winds. So it likely has a closed LLC, also the convection appears to be holding. I think we could have a depression soon...The cape verdes should watch this very carefully.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Convection is also forming close to 12 north. About where the LLC is shown on quickscat.

Newer image around 800z
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would bet good money that this gets 98L later today.

[KWT]

Quite possibly Matt given there is some interesting convection with this low and its at a much deeper latitude then 97L at the same point thus under a more condusive set-up though I would like to see how it does over the nexzt 12-18hrs before getting too much in the way of hopes for this area.

[Mecklenburg]

this could probably go poof just like the 2 previous waves

[stevetampa33614]

suprise suprise

not much too look at on Meteo sat this morning. Im not very impressed.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[Thunder44]

Judging by the quickscat, the low center still looks like it's inland or right on the coast, with a surface trof extending from it, to out in the Atlantic.

Looking at visible image Luis just posted. This appears to be the case.

[Just Joshing You]

Matt-hurricanewatcher - Can you please stop talking as if you're some Pro-Met? I get frustrated with a lot of your posts because as a lurker, I see quite the number of them. You try to convey the impression you know more than you actually know, and it's quite insulting to the average reader when they find out you're nothing more than a wish caster. Thanks!

-Ex

[Vortex]

After a complete analysis of all medium range guidance this morning I feel confident in saying this system will make the trek far to the west with impacts possible in the islands in about a week. In terms of development it appears to be one of slow organization until about 50w. Either way this system not only has a good shot at development but it also stands a good chance to come far west before any recurvature. More later..