Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[boca]

This low is already at 10n so if it moves WNW it will likely do what 97L did.It doesn't seem to be in a hurry either.

[cycloneye]

I have to post rule 2 of our guideline of rules for the new members that haved not read them:

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viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

This is the last time,this will be posted.If the flamming continues,we will act accordinly.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know... I think I'd miss Matt's posts. Everybody's got a right to post what they think.

Anyway...

Looks like Dry air to the North is keeping it from really poppin.




GFS has really latched onto this system. Keeping it weak and west.

06Z

00Z

[Sanibel]

See, the African waves are starting to 'stick' a little longer on their trip across. The season is getting more ripe as we turn the corner into August.

[cycloneye]

Loop pic of wave/low:

[Sanibel]

Great loop cycloneye. Looks like it is starting to lurch towards Bertha's track. Obvious rotation.

Slow speed suggests recurve (if it forms).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Great loop cycloneye. Looks like it is starting to lurch towards Bertha's track. Obvious rotation.

Slow speed suggests recurve (if it forms).

The vast majority that form that far East do recurve. IIRC, the 1938 New England storm, and Hurricane Donna, among a few others, were significant exceptions.

[boca]

I know the 06GFS has this system moving west. I disagree this system is already moving WNW from the loop provided by cycloneye.This might develop but it will likely follow the same path as 97L did which was at 25n and 41w when it died off. This has FISH written all over it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know the 06GFS has this system moving west. I disagree this system is already moving WNW from the loop provided by cycloneye.This might develop but it will likely follow the same path as 97L did which was at 25n and 41w when it died off. This has FISH written all over it.

The 6z GFS also initializes this system north of where it presently is though, so in essence, the current WNW motion will actually bring the system closer to the model's track. Way too early to say that this is or isn't a fish, IMO.

[boca]

I know the 06GFS has this system moving west. I disagree this system is already moving WNW from the loop provided by cycloneye.This might develop but it will likely follow the same path as 97L did which was at 25n and 41w when it died off. This has FISH written all over it.

The 6z GFS also initializes this system north of where it presently is though, so in essence, the current WNW motion will actually bring the system closer to the model's track. Way too early to say that this is or isn't a fish, IMO.

Lets see that the 12zGFS says,this low has to fully get out over the water before we really know which way its going. Judging by the 5 day steering flow this system should move west to about the DR then start a recurve.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 1java.html

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

29/1200 UTC 11.3N 16.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Right in the coast.

[KWT]

Boca you can't really compare 97L with this, 97L came off the African coast at 15-16N, this is a good 4-5 degrees less in lattiude and thus is in much warmer waters.

The main issue is going to be the dry air to the north that is surging off Africa and thus I think development probably isn't all that likely at least till its much further west IMO.

[boca]

KWT valid point but their is also more SAL that this system has to contend with too,so it might not develop until it gets to 45 to 50w.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting motion its taking right now its moving back over land .. you dont see that too often

it has a well defined LLC but moving back over land for the time being but should turn back west to wnw later today.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

interesting motion its taking right now its moving back over land .. you dont see that too often
it has a well defined LLC but moving back over land for the time being but should turn back west to wnw later today.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

I can't see that LLC, exactly where do you see it?

[Aric Dunn]

interesting motion its taking right now its moving back over land .. you dont see that too often
it has a well defined LLC but moving back over land for the time being but should turn back west to wnw later today.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

I can't see that LLC, exactly where do you see it?

just moved over land...

[Aric Dunn]

right over the county guinea-bissau