Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Steve]

Awesome shot T-man. That's pretty much the way things looked all around Lafourche and St. Charles this morning too.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

There seems to be a spin basically paralleling the LA. coastline toward the west from what I can see. It will probably be inland before it has a chance to become anything.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Category 5]

If they dropped it from the TWO then that means that any chance for development from this has passed. Time to put this one to bed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There seems to be a spin basically paralleling the LA. coastline toward the west from what I can see. It will probably be inland before it has a chance to become anything.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

I doubt it will, but I hope it makes it far enough West to rain on my yard.

[wxman57]

Pressures have been rising off the LA coast today as the very weak surface trof moved inland. I can see a weak mid-level spin offshore, but convection is quite weak and scattered. Development chances are slim.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Finally have a few reports of winds with an Easterly component in South Louisiana. (See below- not all the stations that should have an East-ish wind do) If this had happened yesterday, maybe South Louisiana might have gotten a TD or TS out of this.


Might be just a hint of a spin on radar and satellite just offshore of Cocodrie (where I had to change a flat tire while being attacked by horseflies), or a touch West of due South of Port Fourchon.

Probably a case of a little too little, a little too late.


Marsh Island still has a West wind, just offshore, so those East winds North of the apparent center are not unanimous. ie, there probably isn't a surface circulation, and I was fooled by Patterson and LFT, which may be experiencing t-storm outflows.

[Stormcenter]

Pressures have been rising off the LA coast today as the very weak surface trof moved inland. I can see a weak mid-level spin offshore, but convection is quite weak and scattered. Development chances are slim.

Well at least someone else confirms the spin. It's pretty obvious in the lastest vis. loop. I agree the likelihood for development is slim. Thanks for the analysis.

[Shawee]

Thought you guys might enjoy what the squall looked like as it approached the crescent city this morning. I work nights, and I too watched the light show on the GOM early this morning. A heavy downpour ensued shortly after I took the picture.

Enjoying the cooling effects of this feature, but it looks to me now to be moving inland. Nice outflow trying to form on the last visible loop image.... post-K I watch everything until the fat lady sings!

Great shot T-Man; glad to see the "cranes in the sky" have finally arrived here in New Orleans.

[wxman57]

Pressures have been rising off the LA coast today as the very weak surface trof moved inland. I can see a weak mid-level spin offshore, but convection is quite weak and scattered. Development chances are slim.

Well at least someone else confirms the spin. It's pretty obvious in the lastest vis. loop. I agree the likelihood for development is slim. Thanks for the analysis.

It's always easier to see a mid-level rotation when the convection is dying.

[TSmith274]

T-Man... do you work at the port? It looks like that photo was taken up Tchoupitoulas, correct?

Spent last night at my camp in Buras, La. Lots of rain and thunder last night and early this morning, but not much happening today. Almost no wind, but the break from the heat is certainly welcome.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi has not posted on this blob, and mentioned it all of about 5 seconds in yesterday's video.


A lot of the developments he predicts don't develop, but it is awfully rare for something to develop he didn't predict first.


He didn't predict this, the Canadian didn't predict this, well, odds are very, very remote.

[tolakram]

It's on odd one.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Really looks like there is something there and moving W, SW, but the floater is moving that direction too so it may be an illusion.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]Joe Bastardi has not posted on this blob, and mentioned it all of about 5 seconds in yesterday's video.


A lot of the developments he predicts don't develop, but it is awfully rare for something to develop he didn't predict first.


He didn't predict this, the Canadian didn't predict this, well, odds are very, very remote.[/quote]



I agree Ed...I think this particular "blob" has missed it's window of opportunity...maybe when the next front comes along Thursday or Friday and digs into the GOM it may have a chance to do something but I agree with you that this particular area of disturbed weather will likely be nothing more than a nice a heat breaker for those folks in Louisiana who have been suffocating the last few days.

[Stormcenter]

It's on odd one.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Really looks like there is something there and moving W, SW, but the floater is moving that direction too so it may be an illusion.

It is a pretty large system and hard to just ignore no matter what it is or is not.
By the way while is still over water anything is possible so don't write is off just yet even
though the possibility is remote.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[bvigal]

T-man - awesome pic!!

[RL3AO]

It's on odd one.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Really looks like there is something there and moving W, SW, but the floater is moving that direction too so it may be an illusion.

I don't think its an illusion. I see the MLC moving SW comparing it to the longitude line.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post alert:


Saw 2 different NWS WSO mention this isn their AFDs, although both thought GFS was too aggressive.

Current Northern GOMEX blob didn't quite make it, maybe the next one can...


12Z GFS predicts sub-tropical cyclone for New Orleans on Monday




Original to this topic: I am away from the PC/S2K and Houston business hours tomorrow, due business trip to Austin. But my lawn needs the rain. Wi$hcasting in full mode for a day like SE Louisiana's in SE Texas tomorrow.

[vbhoutex]

Definitely not an illusion on the W or WSW movement. The mlc has been moving w-wsw for a couple of days now. Oppurtunity for further development approximately 20% imo. Things just aren't quite right for it, but I never say never. I will say that when Alicia formed, my dad and I had noticed it on the satellites in its' early stages(fam was visiting p's in FL)and my last statement to him as we left to head back to Houston was "watch us have to deal with this a couple of days after we get home" and the rest is history, so I never write these off till they disapate.

[njweather]

Any chance we'll get some rain in Houston out of this? Certainly looks like it's headed west...

[Sanibel]

The only semblance of a surface spiral that I can see is over by Pensacola. And that isn't too hot either.