Tropical Wave with low near African Coast

[RL3AO]

New quikscat.



Low at 13N 18W.

[cycloneye]

Here are observations from Dakar,Senegal from early this morning until 8 PM,where low pressure readings and change in the wind direction tells us that a low pressure is close to that location.

Code: Select all

 Time
EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Jul 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) ENE 9 light rain with thunder
 7 PM (23) Jul 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 10 light rain with thunder
 6 PM (22) Jul 29 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.80 (1009) ENE 13 light rain with thunder
 5 PM (21) Jul 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) ENE 12 light rain with thunder
 4 PM (20) Jul 29 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) ENE 15 rain with thunder
 3 PM (19) Jul 29 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NNW 8 
 2 PM (18) Jul 29 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.74 (1007) N 8 
 1 PM (17) Jul 29 87 (31) 69 (21) 29.74 (1007) N 6 
 Noon (16) Jul 29 87 (31) 71 (22) 29.74 (1007) N 6 
 11 AM (15) Jul 29 89 (32) 69 (21) 29.77 (1008) E 7 
 10 AM (14) Jul 29 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) NNW 7 
 9 AM (13) Jul 29 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) N 10 
 8 AM (12) Jul 29 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) N 10 
 7 AM (11) Jul 29 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) N 12 
 6 AM (10) Jul 29 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) NNE 9 
 5 AM (9) Jul 29 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) N 7


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Personally, I've been very skeptical in regards to the vitality of this system's future and even its development over the past few days. The main issue is the thermal ridge at 700 mb and very stable SAL to the north and west of the surface low, which is exiting the coast at a high latitude like Bertha, reflecting the persistent northward bias of several African lows this year. The capping from the SAL is denoted on satellite imagery by the stratocumulus across the eastern and central subtropical Atlantic. When combined with the fact that the low level (850 mb) vorticity associated with this wave was not as great as pre-Bertha, I have strongly doubted this system's long term prospects. However, if it can maintain strong convection with greater low level inflow in the vicinity of the surface low, it may maintain itself or even intensify over the next several days. It will encounter low shear within the short term, though the SAL and cooler SSTs/OHC north and west of the Cape Verde islands will be a limiting factor. Regardless, it is noted that Bertha also faced similar ills with the SAL and SSTs/OHC, and it still intensified and eventually became a hurricane because of the very conducive upper air synoptic regime. Overall, if convection can continually develop over the surface low, this one may receive an INVEST classification and slowly intensify to a tropical storm over the next several days. The system will likely encounter upper level shear in the medium to long term, as an upper low moves southward, which is supported by WV data and the operational GFS. Since the synoptic environment will not be as favorable as Bertha, I definitely do not anticipate a stronger system than TS status (at most). It's a definite fish (i.e. not a threat to any land mass, including Bermuda/Lesser Antilles/Caribbean) as well.

...and I apologize for my preceding MJO comment's superficial "harshness" to Luis in another thread. It was not intentional.

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps,its now invest 98L,Thread locked.Go to active storms forum for all the details and you can make comments about the system there.