Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

It appears to definitely have a surface low....I smell a depression by morning, which would be fine by me...give me and my yard a good 5 or 6 inches. Love to have it....

East wind South of the center, West winds North of the center, I smell no depression at all.


If that mid-level center kept storms firing, might eventually lower the surface pressures, but, if you'll notice, we are in full poof-ation mode now.

[RL3AO]

It appears to definitely have a surface low....I smell a depression by morning, which would be fine by me...give me and my yard a good 5 or 6 inches. Love to have it....

It has a surface high and a mid-level low.

[canetracker]

It appears to definitely have a surface low....I smell a depression by morning, which would be fine by me...give me and my yard a good 5 or 6 inches. Love to have it....

Agree that I'd love to have the rain, but, where are you seeing a surface low?

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's dropping to the surface as we speak...it's mid to lower level on the last visible frame. We'll see. Where this system is located, we could have a full fledged tropical storm by tomorrow morning or a few thunderstorms. Only time will tell what will happen. I've seen both scenarios many times.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57 will probably correct me, but I understood a mid level center worked to the surface by triggering storms, which release energy through latent heat, and all that good stuff, plus evacuate air from near the surface, which increases convergence, which helps keep the storms going, which evacuates more air, yada, yada, yada.

No thunderstorms, no working of a mid level center to the surface.

If this was 500 miles from land, it might have time for the mid-level center to fire new storms, and try to work down. But that takes a day or two, and this doesn't have it.

It would have generally anticyclonic outflow on its side, but air just above the surface dry enough dewpoints mixed down into the 60s most of Southeast Texas, a tad lower than usual, ie, less tropical.

[Sean in New Orleans]

We'll see...I've seen storms form 50 miles off of the Coast and a depression or small tropical storm doesn't always reveal "anticyclonic outflow." Sometimes anticyclonic outflow doesn't even reveal itself until the system is a hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

No T storms, no development. Although "Dolly's" remnants still an issue NW of OK City...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

[Sean in New Orleans]

Dewpoints look to support tropical development...I see mid 70's completely surrounding the system. That's downright tropical:

[canetracker]

Winds are generally from the Southwest at this time, per the buoy link below, and pressures are stable or barely dropping.
http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/CGbuoy.php

True that stranger things have happened in regards to tropical development, but I guess we will have to see. Personally, I am just happy with the rain.

The visible is sure interesting but lacking convection
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Stormcenter]

I expect another burst of convection later tonight or early tomorrow morning where the "possible"
center is.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

[wxman57]

It appears to definitely have a surface low....I smell a depression by morning, which would be fine by me...give me and my yard a good 5 or 6 inches. Love to have it....

No, it doesn't. The rotation is anticyclonic with higher pressures near the convection. It's not a surface low.

[RL3AO]

Winds continue to be from the southwest and south over Louisiana. There is no surface low.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I expect another burst of convection later tonight or early tomorrow morning where the "possible"
center is.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

Same here.

[canetracker]

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 88. Wind SW 6-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy with a 20% chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms. Lows around 76. Wind SW 3-5 mph.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/detailed.html

I think we will see another burst of convection too, but IMO, don't see an LLC forming at this time.

[Sean in New Orleans]

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 88. Wind SW 6-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy with a 20% chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms. Lows around 76. Wind SW 3-5 mph.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/detailed.html

I think we will see another burst of convection too, but IMO, don't see an LLC forming at this time.

NWS has us at 70% tomorrow. At least it won't be so HOT.

[canetracker]

Sean,
You've gotta love this weather. The rain and cool temps are awesome. We also have the weekend to look forward to when a repeat of this system may happen again. Who knows next weekends system may actually amount to something.

Local met, Bob Breck, just said we may have a repeat of rain again around the wee hours of the morning.

[LaBreeze]

Yes Sean I agree. The rain-cooled temps are really nice after the heat we've had. High rain chances for tomorrow here as well. Rains are welcomed.

[Sanibel]

Doesn't look likely to refire.

[stormy1970al]

It is raining here in South Alabama but that is about all. No storm out of this except that occasional rain.

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't look likely to refire.

I wouldn't bet against that as long as it's over water.