Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[Weatherfreak000]

Waves coming off Africa this year are looking POSITIVELY incredible.

And good for us, the quicker the develop always the more likely they will recurve. This one is looking good....i'll be confident in something forming if I wake up and still see increasing organization for sure.

[RL3AO]

I think its kinda funny that its almost August and the most favorable area for development is the East Atlantic and the least favorable is the Caribbean.

[kurtpage]

885
ABNT20 KNHC 300531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB


still at a low potential

The graphic shows MEDIUM potential....

[kurtpage]

[Aric Dunn]

885
ABNT20 KNHC 300531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB


still at a low potential

The graphic shows MEDIUM potential....

weird ....i hit reload ... and the new text showed up but it still had low.. oh well its medium

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Outflow and banding over the western and northwestern quads appears to be developing. I believe it has a LLC, with the quickscat showing some west wind over the last few. So it is "close" in my option, a depression....But anyways, we will wait until the officals pull the lever. Also we see if it can keep up organizing.

[Ad Novoxium]

It's location is fairly accurate in regards to the area of formation of 96's Hurricane Edouard. Eddy then, however, formed on August 19. If this forms and reaches TS strength, it will be called...

...Edouard.

OK, am I the only one who notices that in the case of two names this year (Bertha and Dolly), both storms with those names in 1996 and 2008 (both hurricanes) are kind of...similar? I'm starting to sweat a little at this year's Fay. Maybe Fay will be a major hurricane into the East Coast?

But the Fay idea is my own opinion. Treat it as such. Don't take it seriously, as it's not a pro opinion.

[lonelymike]

Well at least we'll have something to track during the dry MJO phase.

[RattleMan]

30/0600 UTC 14.4N 18.8W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I strongly believe that we are looking at a depression right now. Why, the quickscats have been showing "west" wind and to a point a closed with the LLCC. Also satellite show a very very "strong cirulation" has developed over the last few hours with strong inflow. Also as observed on satellite that outflow has developed over the west and northwest quads, I would say if a flare up reforms over the LLC over the next 6-12 hours this could jump to tropical storm strength by tomarrow night. It would still not suprize if this poofed but this is interesting.

If you disagree, please tell me why, in a nice and informed way.

[Chacor]

First time I've had a look at it and it looks very, very nice.

The next high seas bulletin for the area from Meteo-France should be out within the hour.

[Chacor]

Thermal low near 1005 over west of Sahara slow-moving. Tropical
wave along 15W/16W south of 14 N, moving off the coast of Africa.
Associated low 1009 along the wave near 11N. ITCZ along 10N17W
8N26W 14N43W.

SIERRA LEONE :
Variable Cyclonic 3 to 5 mainly Southwest in southeast and mainly
Northeast in northwest. Moderate locally rough. Thundersqualls with
severe gusts.

[vegastar]

The new quickscat this morning shows a tight circulation, a little oval shaped. In my opinion is a depression already.

[KWT]

Got to admit this is looking good, as good as Bertha did at this stage anyway. Good news is that it does look pretty far north already around 14.5 which should increase the odds of recurve down the line...

Still for now a WNw/W track is looking most likely and we shall have to see what happens.

Anyway given the way it looks wouldn't be all that surprised to see a TCFA come out sometime in the next 12hrs.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

AL, 98, 2008073006, , BEST, 0, 146N, 189W, 20, 1006,

[KWT]

Very interesting cycloneye but not really all that surprising given how it looks, also note that it shows the disturbance heading westward or at least thats where its most likely to develop.

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 300557
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TRPCL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19W HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT WOULD ONLY REACH
NEAR 52W BY SUN. THIS FEATURE COULD AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS BY LATE SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY IS
QUITE LOW AT THE MOMENT SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE HIGHER WINDS YET.

[KWT]

got to admit it would be ironic if it took a similar track to Edouard 1996 as well, the problem for this system is that if it doesn't get upgraded soon eventually its going to get close to those cooler waters and thus find it tougher to get going and convection would likely decrease somewhat as we've seen over the last 6hrs or so.

[bvigal]

Looks good this morning! Any speculation as to why no num model data?