Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

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gatorcane
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#201 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:12 am

the mid-level steering flow suggest a west bend and even WSW so lets see if that culminates or not.

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#202 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:14 am

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#203 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:18 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


There isn't a strong ridge over it right now hence the WNW/NW movement. It will bend west once it gets under the ridge. But it might but itself north of the 26C isothrerm by that time.
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#204 Postby stevetampa33614 » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:45 am

So the models dont see too sure at this point. its too early. I dont think this is going to bother anyone.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#205 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:49 am

Its possible this takes a similar or close track as Debby in 2006.

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#206 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:56 am

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Luis, I think its going to end up alot more west than that as TAFB depicts but the recurve should happen ultimately. For one thing convection should start to diminish later on today as SAL and slightly cooler SSTs eat away at the system, so it should just move W with the easterlies is my thinking.
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#207 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:01 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Gut feeling. Won't develop for a few days at least. Might get going in the Central Atlantic. The NW movement is taking it over colder waters.
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#208 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well interestingly all guidance (global) and current synoptics would suggest a turn to west today followed by possibly just south of west.. but who knows..


The Bamms go NW into cold water very shortly. I thought these models were better in the deep tropics.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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#209 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:12 pm

You can see how evident the NW movement is in this loop.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim16ir.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - 8 AM TWO: TD may form later today

#210 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Mecklenburg wrote:grrrr.... the SAL is such a nuisance... why do this waves form at such higher latitudes than before?.. this season is getting to be boring...


Read Dr. Klotzbach's outlook with respect to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on pages 16-17 of his April forecast:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2008.pdf

The predictors indicate a weaker-than-normal Bermuda high this year. This could allow for may systems to recurve east of the Caribbean.

How many May systems form out near the Cape Verde islands? Zero. :wink:
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#211 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 30, 2008 12:31 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301729
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...THE LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1155.shtml
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Derek Ortt

#212 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:02 pm

NEXT INVEST PLEASE!
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Re:

#213 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:NEXT INVEST PLEASE!

hate to say it but I think youre right. This one got really close and had a lot of potential, still some for a td, but it doesnt look like it will become much more than that. The window for development is closing, and even if it does develop into a td, it would probably just die out shortly after anyway.
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#214 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:23 pm

The problem with 98L is that it had a very narrow window of opportunity. I was not expecting development personally.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#215 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:35 pm

The biggest problem it had was the rapid climbing in latitud along the African coast,since it was at 9.2n per ssd.If it had stayed at a lower latitud than where it is now,it would haved developed into a TC with warmer waters and less sal to contend.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#216 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:46 pm

I still don't see why they could not call it a TD.

Praia, Cape Verde (Airport) Praia, Cape Verde (Airport)

WSW 5mph pressure 1010mb

Sal, Cape Verde (Airport)

NE 17mph pressure 1009mb
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#217 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:48 pm

I think that if the NHC was really going to call it a TD then they would have already. Convection is decreasing now, and the systems heading for cooler water. More than likely, convection will dissipate and it'll open up into a wave over the next few days. This will be the unnamed TD of 2008. ;-)
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#218 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:49 pm

drezee wrote:I still don't see why they could not call it a TD.

Praia, Cape Verde (Airport) Praia, Cape Verde (Airport)

WSW 5mph pressure 1010mb

Sal, Cape Verde (Airport)

NE 17mph pressure 1009mb


They also don't want to call something a TD that will be gone in 12 hours.

The new QS should be here in an hour or so if that is any help.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#219 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:51 pm

Already at 16.0n.

30/1745 UTC 16.0N 21.6W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

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Re: ATL: Invest 98L in Far Eastern Atlantic

#220 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 30, 2008 2:00 pm

I agree wxman57.

This was one of the best undeclared systems I've seen since the 2006 unnamed tropical storm. The quickscat clearly shown this to have a LLC with 30-35 knot winds. I will hope it is added post season, but don't think so. Yes say NEXT INVEST please but if this would of stayed farther south this could of became something very fast(IMO was something), but now it will effect the cape verdes, and move out and die. I remember years around this time that the 26c line was closer to 20 north then 16 north as it is this year; possibly centered closer to around 30 west, so maybe closer to 18 near where it is currently. But anyways this is telling for the season as these waves are coming off so high.

But anyways it will be a while before anything else gets going.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Wed Jul 30, 2008 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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