Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[AnnularCane]

I thought this north movement was only supposed to be temporary.

[HURAKAN]

If it is a TD, it should be called a TD for historical purposes.

Lee was a TS for 6 hours. TD 7 in 2003 was a TD for 4 advisories. I don't see what is the problem with this being identified as a TD if it's a TD. Like wxman57 said a few pages back, there needs to be some consistency in what we call a TD.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is a TD, it should be called a TD for historical purposes.

Lee was a TS for 6 hours. TD 7 in 2003 was a TD for 4 advisories. I don't see what is the problem with this being identified as a TD if it's a TD. Like wxman57 said a few pages back, there needs to be some consistency in what we call a TD.

I agree. I would go as far as to say when it was forming "banding" features last night that it could of been a borderline TD/Tropical storm. Consistency is what you would expect near a "land" and there is islands it is moving towards=land. So we should be expecting some consistency.



Also to back my statement up the quickscat had a "area" of 35 knot winds. You can tell that with 3 long barbs with 1 half barb. The 3=10 knots per piece and the 1 was 5 knots. This equals 35 knots.

[HURAKAN]

I sent an e-mail to the TPC asking why it wasn't upgraded. Not trying to criticize the TPC, I'm just surprised 98L hasn't been upgraded. Maybe they can light us up on their current thinking.

[dizzyfish]

I am interested to hear what their reply is HURAKAN.

[fasterdisaster]

It is getting sheared a LITTLE but it certainly does look like a depression, probably a 35 mph one in fact.

[fasterdisaster]

I doubt a US/Caribbean threat (of course can't rule it out YET) but the models show this could be a Bermuda problem down the road.

[HURAKAN]

Convection not very deep but its organization remains intact.

[HURAKAN]

qscat08073018_98as

Shows 35 knots in the NE quadrant near the LLC.

[Thunder44]

The convection has diminished. NHC waited long enough for it to fall apart.

[gatorcane]

Remember the NHC forecast low development probabilities with this area from the beginning using words like "development, if any, would be slow to occur." To suddenly declare it a TD or TS would be a another bust for them. In actuality I do think it was at least a TD for about 12 hours at least and maybe borderline TS.

I think this invest is another example of how the NHC struggles to predict intensity and how fast or slow development can happen. For example, the previous invest over Senegal they used words indicating development was nearly certain and it turned out to be a bust.

In that case the NHC should not have pulled the trigger given that the invest was nearly 200-300 miles inland before even going over water. Easy to say in hindsight but even without it, I would not have even mentioned in in a TWO, in years past it would not have been mentioned no matter how impressive on SAT pics. In the case of 98L they probably should have pulled the trigger but did not.

The NHC color-code development regions are in "beta" testing this year and I wonder if they should be modified or pulled for the time being. I think they have been misleading. In fact that will make for a good topic so I'll create one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it is a TD, it should be called a TD for historical purposes.

Lee was a TS for 6 hours. TD 7 in 2003 was a TD for 4 advisories. I don't see what is the problem with this being identified as a TD if it's a TD. Like wxman57 said a few pages back, there needs to be some consistency in what we call a TD.

if I'm not mistaken, post season review they'll have a chance to upgrade it to an non-named storm or depression.

[drezee]

this should go through the cape verdes....

this should test the conspiracy...will sal all of sudden stop reporting obs during the passage

[cycloneye]

Observation from Sal at 5 PM EDT:

2008.07.30 2100 UTC
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light drizzle
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
ob GVAC 302100Z 06016KT 3000 -DZ BKN014 OVC017 24/24 Q1008 NOSIG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

[Mecklenburg]

i hate this wave... it sure is deceiving...

[caribepr]

:uarrow:

Remember the NHC forecast low development probabilities with this area from the beginning using words like "development, if any, would be slow to occur." To suddenly declare it a TD or TS would be a another bust for them. In actuality I do think it was at least a TD for about 12 hours at least and maybe borderline TS.

I think this invest is another example of how the NHC struggles to predict intensity and how fast or slow development can happen. For example, the previous invest over Senegal they used words indicating development was nearly certain and it turned out to be a bust.

In that case the NHC should not have pulled the trigger given that the invest was nearly 200-300 miles inland before even going over water. Easy to say in hindsight but even without it, I would not have even mentioned in in a TWO, in years past it would not have been mentioned no matter how impressive on SAT pics. In the case of 98L they probably should have pulled the trigger but did not.

The NHC color-code development regions are in "beta" testing this year and I wonder if they should be modified or pulled for the time being. I think they have been misleading. In fact that will make for a good topic so I'll create one.

I understand where your thinking on this is coming from, but I want to tell you, for those of us here in the islands, ANYthing that comes off the coast of Africa is looked at with intensity and I love the new way of rating with a visual and intensity modality.
We already know that most of the systems will be blasted out by whatever, shear, SAL, doesn't matter. It's still at least something that shows that we're not watching it for nothing. It doesn't hit a panic button, but it does reaffirm that, yeah, something is going on and we aren't just being paranoid I'm sure it will be refined as time goes on, but I'd be sorry to see them stop it. It's weather...and it changes. But when life is in the balance, a few crying wolf's (and please!!! take that as it's meant, in big respect and basic understanding of systems) are better than nothing at all.

[Meso]

The NHC hurricane experts are the best in the entire world. They would never ignore a system in the Atlantic. They are the best of the best in the field. Although people do critique them all the time, it comes with being the best. I feel 100% confident they will let the public know when a TD or TS or H forms in the Atlantic.

That's not true at all, hence why there are unamed storms and changes within the post-season reviews.There are numerous times when there are storms which qualify scientifically as a tropical depression buy due to their distance from land the NHC doesn't name them.This is no secret or conspiracy, it's just the way it is.I'm not bashing NHC mets, but more the way of which systems are designated depending on where they are.A tropical depression is a tropical depression regardless of where it forms.And while they may be really good at what they do, you shouldn't place them so highly above other meteorologists.



Anyway, this storm should be a depression and should have been for a while.Convection not that deep but the circulation is still looking good with the ITCZ contiuning to feed moisture into the South Eastern area.Models seem to keep it fairly weak and latest runs show more westerly track the the original run, probably will still recurve though.

IR image

[ConvergenceZone]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

[kurtpage]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

Nothing? We had TWO cat 5 hurricanes last year...

[ConvergenceZone]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

Nothing? We had TWO cat 5 hurricanes last year...

I meant quantity, not quality