Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[fasterdisaster]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

Nothing? We had TWO cat 5 hurricanes last year...

I meant quantity, not quality

Yes, 15 named storms sure is a season cancel. Please.

[hurricanetrack]

Just sitting here wondering what 98L will look like in about a week once it (the tropical wave that would remain if the low dissipates) gets to around 20-22N and about 60-62W? Several of the global models show this thing moving along at about due west around 20N for the next week or so. It won't just go away- so what are your thoughts as to what might happen to it in a week?

[RattleMan]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

Nothing? We had TWO cat 5 hurricanes last year...

I meant quantity, not quality

I think you're suffering from 2005itis. 15 storms is above average.

[RL3AO]

What he means is that there wasn't a major hurricane that hit the US. Since that didn't happen the season was boring.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, you can probably blame the media for that , for saying that we will be having more frequent and stronger hurricanes.
That obviously was a lie by the media. I will never ever believe them again............

[Mecklenburg]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

Nothing? We had TWO cat 5 hurricanes last year...

the tracks looks pretty boring... yeah this season will be like 2007... every good wave will go poof.... and i hate it when that happens

[Mecklenburg]

pretty bad shape right now.... it's fate is surely like those two strong waves before it...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA IS DECREASING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

Back to yellow:

[Derek Ortt]

sigh...

the above attitude by a couple of members is what troubles me.

By chance, how old are you, Convergence Zone and Mecklenburg? I am guessing teenage range because the idea that a season is boring if 2 cat 5s make landfall but not in the USA is a boring one is an attitude I had when I was an immature teenager.

2005 was NOT an exciting season... it was a DANGEROUS one. I hope we NEVER see anything like it again

[srainhoutx]

sigh...

the above attitude by a couple of members is what troubles me.

By chance, how old are you, Convergence Zone and Mecklenburg? I am guessing teenage range because the idea that a season is boring if 2 cat 5s make landfall but not in the USA is a boring one is an attitude I had when I was an immature teenager.

2005 was NOT an exciting season... it was a DANGEROUS one. I hope we NEVER see anything like it again

Thank You Derek. Goodness.

[Mecklenburg]

sigh...

the above attitude by a couple of members is what troubles me.

By chance, how old are you, Convergence Zone and Mecklenburg? I am guessing teenage range because the idea that a season is boring if 2 cat 5s make landfall but not in the USA is a boring one is an attitude I had when I was an immature teenager.

2005 was NOT an exciting season... it was a DANGEROUS one. I hope we NEVER see anything like it again

frankly, i am expecting a 1999-like season... wtih longer-rack CV storms

[Thunder44]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

What exactly are we waiting for? Weren't Bertha and Dolly enough for you?

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 22N MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT
WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UN-ORGANIZED...THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

The wording in the more black tone was not at the 8 PM TWO posted above.

[Brent]

This season is starting to remind of last season with almost
everything "poofing" out on us... If it's not the sal, it's the dry air, if it's not the dry air, then it's something else... I know folks will say, wait until august or september, but last year we waited, and waited, and waited, and nothing.....

WOW. Now I'm usually one who gets very bored easily with the tropics but we've already a major Cape Verde hurricane and a U.S. hurricane landfall and it's not even August(go back in history and see how many other July's have had that, you won't find many). I'm glad we're in a lull right now, those two storms back to back were very tiring.

[Mecklenburg]

i give 10% chance for this thing to develop... that bet may be a little generous though

[Chacor]

8 PM Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 22N MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT
WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UN-ORGANIZED...THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS ON THU.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

The wording in the more black tone was not at the 8 PM TWO posted above.

TWDs are prepared before the TWOs.

"BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC."

TWOs use info from after the 1800z analysis and sat imagery from after 2245.

[wxman57]

i give 10% chance for this thing to develop... that bet may be a little generous though

About 9.5% too generous. This one's a goner.

[cycloneye]

i give 10% chance for this thing to develop... that bet may be a little generous though

And what is your analysis of why you say its a little generous?

[mf_dolphin]

Mecklenburg, check your PM's please.

[alan1961]

accuweather

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=0

They have this system (if it survives the dry air) going west.