Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[jasons2k]

We'll see, but with my luck since I will be in Tampa next week it will be the week something comes to Houston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think JB will discuss this on his videos which should post anytime now.

He says he'll be here in Houston next week. Any clues? Is he meeting with clients? Are you one of them?

Nope, did meet him once at a subscriber meet-up, about 5 or 6 years ago, at a bar in Houston. There were a fair number of pro-mets there, and the conversation was generally a tad over my head.

He is ripped, muscle wise, but he is only about 5'8".

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB's video showed a free-be from the ECMWF site (which isn't loading for me now), cloud cover at different levels, and the predicted cloud cover from the 0Z Euro sort of has a TC-ish shape to it, but not looking as good as a TC the Euro predicts for the EastPac.

Still loading slowly, but this is cloud shot JB showed. Note how puny Gulf system looks compared to EastPac system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS develops weak system that moves inland in Louisiana and brings no meaningful rain to Houston.

[HouTXmetro]

12Z GFS develops weak system that moves inland in Louisiana and brings no meaningful rain to Houston.

Oh how I yearn for last summers rain fall.

[Jason_B]

I don't know about any development out of this but I hope those who need the rain get some.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS shows possible tropical depression making landfall near Cameron, LA (where the 7 amp switch on my 1993 Buick Skylark shorted out and killed my battery back in 1997, by causing head lights to come on, got jumped, steering column started smoking just as I got onto Amb. Caffery in LFT) on Tuesday, heaviest rain misses Houston, but it does show some...


Good news was, I was given a 1998 Ford F-150 with a V-8 Triton engine, which I picked up with 12 miles on the odometer at Hub City Ford, as a company truck.

Bad news, when oil hit $10/barrel, I was laid off and Baker Hughes took the pickup away.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I spent about two weeks onshore near Cameron, kind of behind the cable TV station, not too far from Browns Market, back in the marshes. Cattle grazed there, but apparently the gators got some of the calfs. Some remains near the edge of the water.

Using the rule inches between the eyes is about length in feet, some eight, maybe ten foot gators in the marshes.


The directional driller, from Helmer, had a drinking problem. Put some bad doglegs in that well.

[T-man]

Are you hijacking this thread, Ed?

[tailgater]

Ed wrote
Cattle grazed there, but apparently the gators got some of the calfs. Some remains near the edge of the water.

Huh?
The NAM at 78hrs.

[lonelymike]

Maybe Ed carved himself a couple of free steaks?

[Stormcenter]

Here is another model that's on board.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Category 5]

:roll: Are you hijacking this thread, Ed?

Thats like asking HURAKAN if he's making something on Photoshop.

[cheezyWXguy]

:roll: Are you hijacking this thread, Ed?

Thats like asking HURAKAN if he's making something on Photoshop.

lol hurakans a girl

[CajunMama]

:roll: Are you hijacking this thread, Ed?

Thats like asking HURAKAN if he's making something on Photoshop.

lol hurakans a girl

ummm....no he's not!

[Jagno]

[b][u]18Z GFS shows possible tropical depression making landfall near Cameron, LA

Okay, I've been away, across the country, for a few days. I live VERY near Cameron, LA so can someone please tell me what's going on and when. I'm still learning but I don't understand all of the models. Thanks!

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z model runs not super-impressed, but the 6Z GFS manages to close of an isobar (ie, a barely depression) just before landfall on the Texas coast.


Bastardi mentioned this on his pre-road trip posting last night. He says it is a possibility, but it isn't guaranteed, by any means.


6Z GFS has the classic Texas 'half cyclone' look, where dry air from Mexico means most of the rain and weather are East of the center.

[HouTXmetro]

SO will this be from a peice of the trough breaking off or a wave entering the GOM?

[Ed Mahmoud]

SO will this be from a peice of the trough breaking off or a wave entering the GOM?

As seen on this GFS model depiction, it is from 500 mb vorticity max diving down into the trough that breaks off, and enters the Gulf near Biloxi tomorrow afternoon.


These showers in Mississippi are being triggered by the 500 mb disturbance the 6Z GFS uses as a trigger. Note: this is not the Mother of All Mesoscale Convective Complexes.


I'd wait for some support from the 12Z models before getting all enthusiastic. I'd also note the 6Z GFS is also quicker on the trigger for this than other models that have shown something develop.

[Stormcenter]

SO will this be from a peice of the trough breaking off or a wave entering the GOM?

As seen on this GFS model depiction, it is from 500 mb vorticity max diving down into the trough that breaks off, and enters the Gulf near Biloxi tomorrow afternoon.


These showers in Mississippi are being triggered by the 500 mb disturbance the 6Z GFS uses as a trigger. Note: this is not the Mother of All Mesoscale Convective Complexes.


I'd wait for some support from the 12Z models before getting all enthusiastic. I'd also note the 6Z GFS is also quicker on the trigger for this than other models that have shown something develop.

Excellent analysis of the possible scenario....thanks Ed.