Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[RL3AO]

Question is 98W in WPAC or ex-98L in Atlantic more invest worthy? I took a look at the WPAC invest and I have to say it looks worse than the ex-98L

98W is still active but the JTWC has given up on it.

[cycloneye]

Pics at 9:15 PM EDT:





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[gatorcane]

Short-wave IR showing the new convection and structure of ex-98L.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/ir2-l.jpg

[Hurricaneman]

I will give this till saturday morning to regenerate because if it hasnt happened by then the chances of development will deminish imho
b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fasterdisaster]

I will give this till saturday morning to regenerate because if it hasnt happened by then the chances of development will deminish imho
b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Huh? How in the world do you get that conclusion??? Saturday morning is nowhere near soon enough for this to get started, it won't be in warm SSTs until Sunday and conditions only keep improving if it moves W to NW.

[stevetampa33614]

My Question for the mets.

What are the chances of it continuing west?

[boca]

As long as we have the east coast trough, Ex 98L will recurve too once it gets to 60 or 65 west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I bellieve this has about a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 36-48 hours. It has a well defined LLC or maybe a sharp wave, and has started to reform convection over it. If it stays south of 20 north intil 40 west and the shear that is "kind" of shearing the convection to the northeast on the east and northeast side don't increase; then I would expect this to develop.

Also dry air, SAL has to be watched so it is not a shoe in yet. But it does have a chance to become a depression once again(Just my option of the system east of the cape verdes), I also believe this has a chance to become a 40-45 knot tropical storm once pass 45 west near 22-23 north. But that is for another day.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no question there is a closed LLC looking at this satellite. It has a very very tight and nice low level "cloud field" of turn in all directions needed. All this needs to form a CDO for 24 hours with minus 80c cloud tops in the nhc might upgrade.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big burst of convection forming over the LLC. So we wait 12 hours as the nhc likes to do!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1901 ... _track.png

Don't think this can't hit the United states. It's rare but it can happen.

[stevetampa33614]

Matt it isnt anywhere near there. Its still moving west.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Looking like its slowly getting better looking again as it races towards the higher heat content further west. Got some good convection now developing fairly close to the center as well.

[perk]

Eactly where do the water start to get warmer around 40 west?

[KWT]

Yeah between 40-50W the SST's warm up pretty readily. Its there that I think we may see some development.

[cycloneye]

524
ABNT20 KNHC 011153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[Blown Away]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1901_Atlantic_hurricane_4_track.png

Don't think this can't hit the United states. It's rare but it can happen.

I don't have much confidence in the early stages of that track, given it was 1901.

[cycloneye]

Loop of system.Looks like a golf ball,moving westward.

[Blown Away]

I'm back!