Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[littlevince]

Eactly where do the water start to get warmer around 40 west?

SST:



Depth 26.C:



TCHP:




VIS:

[cycloneye]

If the trend of organizing continues,I cant see this day go without,this system being tagged again as 98L.

[BigA]

Right now the low is over water that is about 25.5 degrees C, or 77.9 F. Assuming a basically westward trajectory, it will strike 26C water at about 37 west, and 27C water at 43 west.

[Blown Away]

The TAFB keeps ex 98L as a low and at 18N until it gets to 48W in about 48 hours, then the wave appears to move more WNW and appears it will cross 20N between 55-60W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

[KWT]

Still odds on that it will recurve given its still fairly close to 20N, even if it reaches 50-55W at this same latitude its still highly likely it'll recurve, esp if it does actually decide to develop afterall.

I think it really should be 98L again IMO right now.

[Blown Away]

Maybe my eyes are tricking me, but the last frame it appears ex 98L made a little WSW movement. Oh well, we have plenty of time to watch and see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Still odds on that it will recurve given its still fairly close to 20N, even if it reaches 50-55W at this same latitude its still highly likely it'll recurve, esp if it does actually decide to develop afterall.

I think it really should be 98L again IMO right now.

I agree, 20N is the magic line, if it crosses 20N before 55 the chances of this coming to the CONUS are very low. IMO, if it stays a shallow low ex 98L will make it to 60-65 before crossing 20N.

[Frank2]

Per the WV Loop, the disturbance appears to have a short burst of convection (now dissipating), but, it faces some very hostile conditions to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

also of interest is the subtropical ridge - whatever is present is very fractured at this time...

Again, every season is unique...

[Fego]

Indeed looks like is moving a little wsw.. but look at this tiny hole near the center...

[canes04]

Gatorcane,

Good call with this one! You stuck with it.

We could have a TD by tomorrow.

[KWT]

Well I think to be honest Frank thats to be expected as we head towards the next Dmin convection should weaken. Right now does look like its dropped slightly to the WSW but I suspect thats a very short term movement, still heading towards the warmer waters now with convection still present.

Looks a little sheared as well right now with convection displaced on the NE side.

[wxman57]

I don't know what more it would need to be classified as a TD, an eye? Let's see if the current burst of convection hangs in there another 6-8 hours. If it does, then there's no reason it shouldn't be TD 5 if not Edouard. Regardless, it's a fish. No chance of an east Caribbean impact with such a weak Bermuda high to its north and an approaching trof, and the fact that it's already north of the Caribbean.

[Cyclone1]

I don't know what more it would need to be classified as a TD, an eye? Let's see if the current burst of convection hangs in there another 6-8 hours. If it does, then there's no reason it shouldn't be TD 5 if not Edouard. Regardless, it's a fish. No chance of an east Caribbean impact with such a weak Bermuda high to its north and an approaching trof, and the fact that it's already north of the Caribbean.

So would you vote for an 11 am upgrade?

[KWT]

This isn't even a invest though wxman57, I agree with you though this really should be a TD despite having displaced convection but then again it seems nowdays NHC wants nearly perfect looking systems before they upgrade them...

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS does not develop this right away, and shows intensification mainly after it has begun a recurve that takes it fairly close to, but safely South and East of, Bermuda.

It does pass just Northeast of the Virgin Islands, but it isn't well developed at that point, per GFS.

I have not formed an opinion on development or lack thereof, or likely path, except to agree it does seem rather far North to be a US threat, although even there I wouldn't bet the mortgage.

[gatorcane]

Looks like development is slowly happening as per my forecast reasoning over the past couple of days (just scroll up on this thread to see my reasoning). NHC sees something and have issued a code orange right on schedule with my forecast reasoning.

I'm going to re-review the synoptics this morning and issue some follow up forecast packages for this area. It's been about 12 hours since I've taken a look at them.

Board interest in the area is increasing (as expected)

[Ed Mahmoud]

This isn't even a invest though wxman57, I agree with you though this really should be a TD despite having displaced convection but then again it seems nowdays NHC wants nearly perfect looking systems before they upgrade them...

NHC's judgement seemed to be confirmed when they waited on officially classifying this as a depression when it probably was a depression, but was about to weaken.

They may wait six or twelve hours longer for a system days away from any possible land, for an upgrade, than a system that could potentially impact land within a day or two, and although that may not be the best pure science, it fits their mission of protecting the public and keeping them informed.

[wxman57]

This isn't even a invest though wxman57, I agree with you though this really should be a TD despite having displaced convection but then again it seems nowdays NHC wants nearly perfect looking systems before they upgrade them...

NHC's judgement seemed to be confirmed when they waited on officially classifying this as a depression when it probably was a depression, but was about to weaken.

They may wait six or twelve hours longer for a system days away from any possible land, for an upgrade, than a system that could potentially impact land within a day or two, and although that may not be the best pure science, it fits their mission of protecting the public and keeping them informed.

They can do that (wait) for a system in the middle of nowhere. If this was in the Gulf we'd have already had TD 5 and probably Edouard, regardless of whether they thought it would weaken. Inconsistency is the issue I have with NHC classifications. If it would be a TD/TS in the northern Gulf, it should be a TD/TS near Africa. Location shouldn't matter. Now this could also be an argument for NOT calling a weaker system a TD in the Gulf as they tend to do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I thought a classified tropical cyclone anywhere in the Basin meant more work for you. It is Friday, go out for dinner, catch a movie. Little warm for bike riding.

Anyway, on the Gulf of Mexico thread, I have posted an ExtremeWeatherGuy style post on the 6Z GFS and a TD off Texas Monday.

Not that I really buy that.


Back to ex-98L, cloud tops have started to warm somewhat.

[cycloneye]

Wel,they put a new number,but its the same system so this thread will be mantained and moved to active storms forum.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al992008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808011351
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2008, DB, O, 2008080112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992008
AL, 99, 2008073118, , BEST, 0, 180N, 290W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080100, , BEST, 0, 184N, 314W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080106, , BEST, 0, 185N, 334W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008080112, , BEST, 0, 184N, 354W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 45, 0,