Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[gboudx]

We're planning a trip to Galveston next Wednesday-Friday. Guess I better keep an eye on this.

[oyster_reef]

This model suggest development off the mouth of the MS river then running the coast to south tx.

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... essure/in/

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... 9/wind/in/

[Stormcenter]

This model suggest development off the mouth of the MS river then running the coast to south tx.

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... essure/in/

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... 9/wind/in/

And it begins.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[Portastorm]

I'd personally love to see this verify ... a nice little tropical depression that rains 2-3 inches over several days in southeast and south central Texas. Just what the doctor ordered!

[KatDaddy]

Hmmmmmmmmm. Can we say Alicia II? Boy I sure hope not!

[Kludge]

Hmmmmmmmmm. Can we say Alicia II? Boy I sure hope not!

Yeah, but Alicia 1/4 or Alicia 1/8 would be welcome right now.

[KatDaddy]

Yep. You guys up N are very dry. We got a decent break along the coast thanks to Dolly and some good seabreeze storms.

[Sanibel]

Persistent stationary trough last few days over north Florida.

[HouTXmetro]

Not buying it.... I just can't see this happening so close to the coast. WIth our luck it will hug the coast just inland and disipate. Bringing us little releif if any in rainfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

edit: deleted post

[Kludge]

Not buying it.... I just can't see this happening so close to the coast. WIth our luck it will hug the coast just inland and disipate. Bringing us little releif if any in rainfall.

[/quote]

C'mon, HouTex, don't rain on our parade. Wait, check that, DO rain. I realize chances of this are Real low, but we can dream, can't we? Especially since there's not a darn thing going on in the tropics this week...

Have a little faith....

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS: Weak low that fizzles as it reaches Texas, high and dry in Houston.

[Stormcenter]

12Z GFS: Weak low that fizzles as it reaches Texas, high and dry in Houston.

It's kind of hard to imagine a tropical low fizzling away before making landfall in the GOM during the month of August.

[Kludge]

12Z GFS: Weak low that fizzles as it reaches Texas, high and dry in Houston.

This scenario keeps causing me to think of an analogy with that movie "Independence Day", where Will Smith has to plant a nuke in the invading mother ship in order to destroy its force shield (The Ridge) so that our fighters could bring it down with rockets (troughs). If there were only some way to "nuke" this dang ridge that seems to form over us at this time every year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS: Weak low that fizzles as it reaches Texas, high and dry in Houston.

It's kind of hard to imagine a tropical low fizzling away before making landfall in the GOM during the month of August.

Waiting for FSU model page to update to see shear forecast, but this, per the GFS, starts as the surface reflection of a cold core upper low, so development wouldn't be all that rapid to begin with, but the 12Z GFS I can see from PSU shows it dealing with fairly dry mid-level air.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If we assume the Canadian, with its tendency to over-develop things, represents the upper limits of possibilities, we have a strong tropical storm hitting between Houston and Port Arthur as a worst case scenario.


Of course, we all know what happens when you assume.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]If we assume the Canadian, with its tendency to over-develop things, represents the upper limits of possibilities, we have a [url=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008080112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation][b] [u]strong tropical storm hitting between Houston and Port Arthur [/u][/b][/url] as a worst case scenario.


Of course, we all know what happens when you assume.[/quote]



There seems to be an enough model support to make me buy into the idea of some sort of cyclone formation and every model moves it wwd into the Texas coast...I believe they are on to something...they Gulf has been very unstable for the past 7 days and if the shear decreases in the Northern Gulf I think it's very possible we might see a TD or TS for the the rain starved folks in Texas

[HouTXmetro]

If we assume the Canadian, with its tendency to over-develop things, represents the upper limits of possibilities, we have a strong tropical storm hitting between Houston and Port Arthur as a worst case scenario.


Of course, we all know what happens when you assume.

There seems to be an enough model support to make me buy into the idea of some sort of cyclone formation and every model moves it wwd into the Texas coast...I believe they are on to something...they Gulf has been very unstable for the past 7 days and if the shear decreases in the Northern Gulf I think it's very possible we might see a TD or TS for the the rain starved folks in Texas

Temps today in H-Town are knocking on 100

[KatDaddy]

The overall point to what we are seeing the model is.......they are sniffing something and we might see tropical development in the several days. Where it goes if it develops is unknown.

[Kludge]

0Z model runs not super-impressed, but the 6Z GFS manages to close of an isobar (ie, a barely depression) just before landfall on the Texas coast.


Bastardi mentioned this on his pre-road trip posting last night. He says it is a possibility, but it isn't guaranteed, by any means.

He also reminded us that he wasn't bullish on that blob we tracked across the GOM last week, but he says this one looks more suspicious to him. That tends to bolster his credibility on this prediction.