Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

The last visible pic for today:

[stevetampa33614]

hmm guess by tommorrows first visibles it should be around 45W. I think the models can hand it better. Its seem an almost WSW movement. Dont see the east coast deflector shield acting on this one anytime soon.

[stevetampa33614]

If it makes it to 60W without gaining above 20N than it hits the herbert Box and will effect the CONUS in some fashing.

However I expect this to begin developing around 50W and start its curve in the next 48. thoughts?

[RL3AO]

If it makes it to 60W without gaining above 20N than it hits the herbert Box and will effect the CONUS in some fashing.

Nope. It doesn't work like that.

[RL3AO]

Dare you dispute the herbert box?

1. The Herbert Box deals just with South Florida, not the entire CONUS.
2. The Herbert Box suggests that most storms that affect South Florida went through one of the two boxes. That is not he same thing as most storms that go though one of the two boxes affect South Florida.

[HURAKAN]

[stevetampa33614]

Dare you dispute the herbert box?

1. The Herbert Box deals just with South Florida, not the entire CONUS.
2. The Herbert Box suggests that most storms that affect South Florida went through one of the two boxes. That is not he same thing as most storms that go though one of the two boxes affect South Florida.

You know I edited my comment. Actually it looks like to was deleted, becase I saw my factual error there.

[HURAKAN]

The Herbert Box is not a scientific law, therefore, it can be disputed. But that's for another topic. Now, back to 99L.

[Emmett_Brown]

I dont really see a S of West motion at this time, but it certainly is bowling rapidly westward at a good clip. I think that this one has a very good chance of developing. However, upper level conditions look hostile a couple of days down the road, with lots of W shear:



Perhaps a short lived TC like Chris a couple of years back?

[Nimbus]

Not upgrading 98L will probably not go down in history as a particularly heinous underestimate.
Even though scientific consistancy is good, Its nice to have a break from the storm hype if its not needed.

For example the oil futures have been selling off and were approaching the bottom of the monthly trading range just as 98L formed. Granted this storm will probably recurve if it spins up and will miss any oil infrastructure but having a TD on the map racing west towards the CONUS might have a bullish effect on the oil futures market. There is oil equipment off the southeast coast.

If you are going to miss on predicting a storms early development, 98L was not a bad storm to miss on.

[Honeyko]

I dont really see a S of West motion at this time, but it certainly is bowling rapidly westward at a good clip. I think that this one has a very good chance of developing. However, upper level conditions look hostile a couple of days down the road, with lots of W shear:

....Assuming it doesn't retrograde, providing the new storm with upper-level divergence.

In any event, my assumption is a Bertha-like storm that's tenacious and doesn't hit anything big.

[HURAKAN]

[Cookiely]

Hebert please not Herbert.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[RL3AO]

Hebert please not Herbert.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

I always thought it was Herbert.

[KWT]

Still looks mainly convectionless and if it doesnt get another burst I'd bet that surface circulation will be gone sooner rather later however we will see. I suspect this one probably will go on to develop further west and the warmer waters are pretty close by as well.

Looks to me like its tracking pretty much due west.

[MGC]

Where's the beef? I mean convection? Nice spin though.....MGC

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 012340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT
ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[bvigal]

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS STILL EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT
TWO DEGREES IN DIAMETER WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 18N. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Chacor]

Hebert please not Herbert.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

I always thought it was Herbert.

Same guy who worked on the subtropical satellite classification technique (Hebert-Poteat).