Ex Invest 90L Model Runs

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 021251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC SAT AUG 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080802 1200 080803 0000 080803 1200 080804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 27.7W 11.8N 31.6W 11.9N 35.7W 12.2N 40.5W
BAMD 11.5N 27.7W 11.5N 31.9W 11.5N 36.3W 11.5N 40.8W
BAMM 11.5N 27.7W 11.6N 31.9W 11.6N 36.2W 11.8N 40.8W
LBAR 11.5N 27.7W 11.5N 31.6W 11.6N 35.8W 12.0N 39.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080804 1200 080805 1200 080806 1200 080807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 45.5W 15.1N 56.8W 20.2N 66.4W 24.9N 70.3W
BAMD 11.5N 45.4W 12.2N 54.1W 13.5N 62.0W 14.8N 69.1W
BAMM 11.9N 45.3W 12.7N 55.2W 14.8N 64.7W 17.5N 72.4W
LBAR 12.2N 44.1W 12.3N 51.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 63KTS 69KTS
DSHP 46KTS 56KTS 63KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 27.7W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 24.5W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 18.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Ed Mahmoud]

Potential threat to Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Looks like it does not want to fish....very south system if if this happens ( should it verifies FIRST) with cane status ( cat 1)let's see that what happens in terms of developpement, but we 're far away from reality ... (hope that for the moment because of the coordinates does not look optimistic for the East carib Leewards Islands).....

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:

Potential threat to Caribbean.

OH yeah boy, maybe a low tracker?, you're right guy time wil tell, ...but first plots are indicating a possible Caribbean thread

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

looks like some shear as it approaches the islands based upon the spread in the BAM models

[Gustywind]

Repeat Dean? waouw troubles ahead if this happens, very similar path like Dean or a bit souther, but very south track for the moment ( first plots) maybe that the ridging is very strong throught the period.....i want to see the GFS and the others to have a better handle on this one

[HURAKAN]

SST, no problem. Shear, problematic. I don't see the system being sheared right now but this says that its in 15 knots shear.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL902008  08/02/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    32    34    40    46    53    56    59    63    67    69
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    32    34    40    46    53    56    59    63    67    69
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    26    27    29    31    35    40    47    52    56    58

SHEAR (KTS)       15    15    13    14    15    15     3     8    16    15    20    19    28
SHEAR DIR         93    94    82    75    68    77   141   213   276   273   301   268   281
SST (C)         27.5  27.8  27.8  27.7  27.4  27.1  27.4  27.8  27.9  28.3  28.4  28.1  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   133   138   138   137   133   130   133   139   140   145   147   141   138
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   147   147   146   141   138   143   151   153   157   156   144   138
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     9    10    11    10    11    10    12    12
700-500 MB RH     56    54    54    54    50    45    43    43    52    52    55    51    51
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR     7    17    26    25    27     7     0    -9    -3     2     2   -10   -21
200 MB DIV        10    13    28    18    -6    -3   -15    -2     6     7     0   -10    -6
LAND (KM)       1163  1378  1597  1740  1665  1432  1096   821   665   336   377   200    73
LAT (DEG N)     11.5  11.6  11.6  11.6  11.6  11.8  11.9  12.1  12.7  13.7  14.8  16.3  17.5
LONG(DEG W)     27.7  29.8  31.9  34.1  36.2  40.8  45.3  50.2  55.2  60.1  64.7  68.8  72.4
STM SPEED (KT)    18    21    21    21    22    23    23    24    25    23    22    19    18
HEAT CONTENT      11    16    15    15    14    16    24    40    42    67    61    60    61

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18      CX,CY: -17/ -2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  565  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  16.8 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   5.  11.  18.  23.  29.  33.  37.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.   8.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   4.   7.  12.  19.  28.  32.  38.  41.  46.  46.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   7.   9.  15.  21.  28.  31.  34.  38.  42.  44.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008     INVEST 08/02/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  12.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 118.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.1 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  14.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    23% is   1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    14% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008     INVEST 08/02/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

[Blown Away]

Now that's what call due W and flying across the Atlantic!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like some shear as it approaches the islands based upon the spread in the BAM models

Shear from the East or Northeast with the deep and medium further South and West than the shallow, no?


Edit to add- SHIPS run posted above indeed shows East shear through 48 hours.

[KWT]

Yep shear may well be an issue if it takes the tracks the models expect it too, of course the uncertainty will be what sort of weakness 99L creates if it does develop and recurve...still I think this is deep enough to the south to need real watching...

[Blown Away]

With all the weakness we have seen I don't see 90L going due W through the Carribean. If this develops, I think we will see this system start it's NW turn between 65-80W. This has the potential to be a player for many areas.

[expat2carib]

Looks like a potential for the Leewards. Any of you guys have an ETA or time frame when it will arrive? (IF it develops and IF it's heading this way....Dominica)

Thanks!

[Honeyko]

Those are cat-5 tracks if ever I saw 'em.

It if gels, watch out.

A couple hundred people in Hispaniola generally have to die in order to keep these things from shredding some stretch of the Gulf Coast at full intensity.

(I don't expect enough of a northward turn to this to miss the LAs. What I suspect will develop is a classic "leading-trailing couplet" with 99L eventually harassing the east coast as a cat 2/3 while the trailing storm steadily intensifies into a Caribbean monster.)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well this one is definitely worth watching. Those intial model tracks have definitely gained my attention.

[RL3AO]

Those are cat-5 tracks if ever I saw 'em.

Wow. Just wow.

[KWT]

I'm willing to bet this goes to the north of those tracks simply because if 99l forms its bound to create some sort of weakness and let 90L lift up at least a little.

[x-y-no]

looks like some shear as it approaches the islands based upon the spread in the BAM models

Shear from the East or Northeast with the deep and medium further South and West than the shallow, no?


Edit to add- SHIPS run posted above indeed shows East shear through 48 hours.

Yeah, but I don't pu an awful lot of weight on shear forecasts more than a day or two out. Bottom line for now is that this is a definite candidate to threaten the islands and Caribbean, but more will be revealed.

[stormchazer]

I'm willing to bet this goes to the north of those tracks simply because if 99l forms its bound to create some sort of weakness and let 90L lift up at least a little.

Agreed, but even the TWO hints that 99L may have a short life regardless. Definately can make things tricky when there are potentially two TC in close proximity, especially with the difference in lattitude.